Trilly Grades Your Prebuild: Indiana Pacers Edition
Welcome back,
You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there are only eighteen: Spurs, Pistons, Clippers, Heat, Kings, Lakers, Cavs, Wizards, Pelicans, Suns, Wolves, Mavs, Hawks, Magic,
Hornets, Knicks, Bulls, and Grizzlies.
I’ll take a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Indiana Pacers (48-34, 5th place Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. Defensive identity
The Pacers were third in Defensive Rating, behind Milwaukee and Utah, and they did it with zero Pacers on the All-Defense team. To be fair, Myles Turner was probably a top ten defender this season but he ran up against Gobert/Embiid. The position is stacked, he didn’t have a shot smh. The one All-Defense guy they had (Victor Oladipo) missed 46 games due to injury and they replaced him with a guy the Knicks traded for and then said “no thanks”. Credit to Nate McMillan and staff for crafting a top-tier defense that will get to add a (hopefully healthy) Oladipo to take some of those Edmond Sumner minutes.
Go look right now. There’s a real player named Edmond Sumner. I couldn’t believe it either.
2. Tremendous cap situation
Oladipo makes $21 million per season for each of the next two. Turner’s new deal kicks in at a very favorable $18 mill per. Domantas Sabonis led the team in win shares this season and he’s on the hook for $3.5 million next year. For reference, Nic Batum makes $25 million dollars next season and $27 million dollars the season after that.
They have about $60 million dollars in expiring contracts, including guys they’ll likely want to re-sign. This kind of cap space gives them the option to overpay for talent, take on talent attached to a bad contract or….just roll it over and not give it to anyone bad at basketball.
3. Great front office
The Pacers missed the playoffs once this decade (when Paul George’s leg went and I quote, “kablooey”) in large part to a great front office. Owner Herbert Simon is committed to keeping the Pacers in his family, in Indiana and spending to keep them competitive. Nate McMillan arrived three years ago, has made the playoffs each season and helped the Pacers defensive rating climb from 16th to 13th to 3rd. GM Kevin Pritchard arrived the same season as McMillan, signed the core of those three playoff teams and nailed the PG trade. Pacers fans should have faith they’re in good hands going forward.
Bad Things
1. Oladipo’s injury/recovery
Let’s check in on Vic’s prognosis:
At the bottom of the thigh, the quadriceps muscle attaches to the top of the kneecap, and that tendon where the muscle meets with the bone, that’s the quadriceps tendon. In Oladipo’s case, he tore that quadriceps tendon right off the top of the kneecap.
Well… that sounds unpleasant. Maybe it’s not as bad as it sounds?
Generally people who have quadriceps tendon ruptures are older folks…..That’s the compelling thing about Oladipo’s injury. He’s a young man in the prime of his athletic career. He’s just not in the normal range where we see a lot of these injuries.
Awesome. So it’s rare but hopefully not too bad, right?
I started thinking about the potential bad injuries that happen like a patellar dislocation, an ACL injury, a quadriceps or a patellar rupture, even a patellar fracture — actually breaking the kneecap. And of all those things, unfortunately the quadriceps tendon rupture (which is what Oladipo suffered) is the injury I would least like an athlete to have.
Fuck.
I have faith in modern medicine and Oladipo’s recovery but yeesh, that doesn’t sound great. We don’t have much precedence for this injury in the NBA outside of a 34-year-old Tony Parker or a 36-year-old Charles Barkley. Here’s to hoping for the best.
2. Roster turnover
Six of the Pacers top ten in minutes played are about to hit unrestricted free agency. Player for player, they can replace Thad Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Cory Joseph, Tyreke Evans, and Wesley Matthews. But the first four played big roles in each of Indy’s last two seasons and that continuity is going to cost. Collison/Young are over 30 and Bogdanovic is about to turn 30. This might be guys last chance to get paid. I imagine Indy will try to keep at least three of the above.
3. “Big Three”
Of their three best players, one is recovering from a brutal injury and the other two can’t play at the same time. Well, they can (they played about seven minutes per game together during the regular season and were +3.1 per 100 possessions, not too shabby) but it’s not ideal. It kills their spacing and in each of the past two seasons, teams have been able to take advantage in the postseason.
Sabonis and Turner are each 22 and improving by the season so maybe they figure this out. If Turner keeps improving at defense and his 3P holds true, he’s the perfect complement for Sabonis. If Sabonis keeps improving and is willing to accept a bench role, perhaps you can re-sign him at a number low enough to make it worthwhile. Maybe McMillan can keep their minutes separate enough to make it work. Maybe better offensive players around them help the spacing issue. Or maybe they have two centers in a league where sometimes you don’t need one and have a trade to make.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. I’d trade Sabonis
He’s good, maybe even PRETTY good. He’s young, extremely durable and very cheap for another season. And that’s exactly why I’d trade him.
Turner led the league in blocks and hit 39% of his three-pointers. He’s the exact type of center you want if you have to have a center and he’ll make less than Allen Crabbe next season. I keep Turner, build my defense around him and put shooters/shot-creators around him and Oladipo.
A Sabonis trade is interesting because his salary is cheap enough that any roster could absorb it and since you asked, here are my favorite fake trades:
Sabonis to the Hawks for #10 pick. Pacers get a top 10 pick for their backup center. Hawks get a center better than anyone they could have gotten at #10.
Sabonis/McDermott to Cleveland for Kevin Love. Turn Sabonis into your FA acquisition and someone that can play with Turner. After his injury this season, I’m not sure what Love’s market is. Maybe Cleveland asks for Indiana’s #18 pick this season and goes full rebuild with the Sex Man, Sabonis, the #5 and #18 pick.
Sabonis/#18 pick to Memphis for Mike Conley. Memphis may end up with the same issue as Indy with a JJJ/Sabonis frontcourt pairing, but I’m betting on JJJ being a better shooter/defender than Turner. Conley is also an Indianapolis native and the Pacers have been trying to acquire him for years.
Sabonis to Washington for #9. Same as Atlanta. Whoever the Wizards would have drafted at #9 won’t be as good as Sabonis is right now. And you have a chance to negotiate his next contract.
The market for bigs may be declining but the market for versatile bigs will never die. Sabonis was made a stretch-four by OKC and the sixth man by Indy. He may just need a team willing to let him play his game. His Per 36 Minute data this year: 20-13-4 on 59% FG shooting. His ORB% rate put him between DeAndre Jordan and Deandre Ayton. His DRB% put him between Giannis and KAT. His FT rate puts him right ahead of Blake and Luka, and he’s hitting 72% from the stripe. His AST% puts him a smidge in front of Nurkic and he’s improved every year defensively.
Normally, I’d say keep Sabonis and figure it out (and I wouldn’t hate the Pacers for doing this) but an Oladipo/Turner/Conley trio or adding a top ten pick in exchange for your backup center could get the Pacers in ECF contention.
2. Overpay
If you don’t trade for Love/Conley to use some of that cap space, use it to overpay on the second tier FAs. Their current teams may be hesitant to give Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris or Khris Middleton a full max, the Pacers should jump at the opportunity. Do I want to pay Tobias Harris $35 mill per season? No. No, I do not. But I do think Pritchard/McMillan have shown they can find value all over the draft and fit it into their system. Oladipo and Turner combined next season will make $500k more than Chris Paul will by himself. They’ve earned the right for precisely one (1) overpay. I’d prioritize Kemba and Harris, of that group.
Indy can also be aggressive in the RFA market. D’Angelo Russell, Kristaps Porzingis, Terry Rozier and Malcolm Brogdon are available and big offer sheets on day one make things difficult for those teams at the very least. You may be able to snag DAR if the Nets go star shopping or Brogdon if the Bucks decide to prioritize Middleton/Lopez/Mirotic.
3. Re-sign some of your own but don’t fall in love
There’s value in running it back enough times until another team botches how they handle a star and they trade you Kawhi Leonard and you immediately make the Finals!
Of the FA’s, I’d let Matthews and Collison go. Matthews was a buyout option so you can find the next Matthews, and ideally, Aaron Holiday can step into some of those Collison minutes.
I’d bring back Joseph and Young. Joseph is a great defender and he keeps too much of the burden from going on Holiday. And Thad? Well, you give him a blank check, I’m not sure how you replace this:
The number speak for themselves.
I probably let Bogdanovic go. He had a great season in Oladipo’s absence and struggled mightily in the playoffs with the focus on him. There’s no shame in that, he’s probably paid himself into a well-deserved raise. If I’m Indiana, I’d rather spend his money on someone with more two-way potential (Middleton) or offensive upside (Kemba/Tobias). There are a number of Danny Green/Nikola Mirotic/Seth Curry types available in free agency to replace his shooting if he gets a big contract offer elsewhere. Either way, the Pacers are in great shape moving forward.
Prebuild status: Oh hell yea.