Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Phoenix Suns Edition
Welcome back,
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Suns. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only eight.
The rules are the same: I’m going to be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed miserably at and three things they could do this summer to stop stinking. I’ll be issuing one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Phoenix Suns (19-63, 15th place Western Conference)
1. Booker, Devin Armani
He’s bad defensively and this might have been his worst season on that side of the ball, which is saying something. He hasn’t won more than 24 games in a season and this is year four. His numbers get better and better, his team get worse and worse. He has the 3rd highest usage rate in the league, of course he does impressive counting numbers. He’s still young but that can only be used as a strength for so long.
*cracks knuckles, ties “BOOKER #1″ cape snugly around neck*
The list of people that have averaged 26 PPG/6 APG in a season before the age of 23: Oscar Robertson, Lebron James (3x), Devin Booker. And Book is comfortably the best shooter of the three at the same age. Crazy…..but it’s true.
A usage rate of 30 or above puts you in the top 15 this season, Book is third as mentioned above. James Harden, Luka Doncic, Blake Griffin, Devin Booker: the only ones among the top 15 to have a 3PAr and FTr each above 30%. I know, I know. I harp on 3PAr/FTr a lot but that’s modern basketball, Jeff Van Gundy. You want a guy that can hit a lot of threes and get to the line a lot. It helps if he can pass.
Book’s assist % has him right between Mike Conley and Ben Simmons, yet his turnover % is lower than Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. His TS% has him right behind Lebron James but right ahead of Paul George.
Dirk scored 50+ points in his career twice. Booker did it twice in three days, then followed it up with 48 points and 11 assists. You know about the 70 points he gave Avery Bradley and only Avery Bradley.
The point is this: aside from the winning part, he’s exactly what I’d want in a young star. He’s doing historic numbers at a young age and guys that good THAT soon usually fall into several All-Star games at worst. He’s taking the right kind of shots and hitting them at a decent clip. He’s not ball-hogging or turning the ball over at absurd rates while his usage is sky high. That’s a good sign for when better talent is around him and he shouldn’t have to do as much. In the meanwhile, he’s getting buckets and giving a team with absolutely nothing else to root for, something to root for.
2. Non-Booker assets
CPF DeAndre Ayton averaged a 16/10 on 59% shooting and played in 71 games as a rookie big man. He was not Luka Doncic or Trae Young so nobody cared. Nobody but me, DeAndre.
TJ Warren battled injuries but apparently is just a vv good 3P shooter (43% 3P) now. Mikal Bridges played in every game and finished sixth in the league in deflections. Trevor Ariza was an awful signing that they turned into a look at Kelly Oubre (40 games in Phoenix, averaged 17/5 on 55.5% TS which ties him with Derrick White/Jeremy Lamb territory) and now have a chance to dictate what they pay him this summer or let him walk. I love them coming away with Elie Okobo and De’Anthony Melton in this past draft, giving them a couple of different options on how they want to build a backcourt with/around Booker.
There’s some stuff here. Young, cost-controlled stuff. You can start with a hell of a lot worse.
3. Robert Sarver’s endless spending
LMAO, almost wrote that with a straight face. But the old man has opened up the pocketbook as of late. Warren and Booker got paid. They’re currently paying Tyson Chandler, Wayne Ellington and Austin Rivers to play for other teams. They took on Ryan Anderson’s deal to get Melton. They’ve failed this season but it hasn’t been for a lack of spending. Maybe it’s a mirage but at the same time, maybe not. HMMMMMMMM.
The Suns are well under the cap next season and could open up more space pretty easily. They’ll have some money to spend if someone is willing to take it, and they usually are. Will they give it to the right person? Buddy that leads me to my bad things.
Bad Things
1. The Front Office is either awful or unproven
Sarver, while spending now, has historically been awful. James Jones is unproven as a GM. HC Igor Kokoskov might be both???
All the young pieces above were supplemented at some point during the season by Chandler, Ariza, Richaun Holmes and multiple lottery picks. They were bad. They were always going to be bad. But they shouldn’t be THIS bad. That much talent isn’t “second worst point differential in the league” bad. They’re 27th in offense and 29th in defense. This team was 4-24 at one point and have had five different losing streaks of at LEAST 6 games. The goddamn season is only 82 games long. Booker is 25 a night, Ayton is a walking double-double, Richaun Holmes played 70 games. They shouldn’t be getting waxed like this night after night.
2. The Front office deserves two bad things
They’re historically inept and they don’t get ridiculed as much as they should. It ends today.
Eric Bledsoe, Marcus Morris, Goran Dragic, and Isaiah Thomas all left on bad terms. Maybe they’re all bad apples but the Suns don’t get that benefit of the doubt. Having three top-8 picks combined over the 2016 and 2017 draft and coming away with Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Josh Jackson is fucking brutal. The Ariza signing was a disaster the day it was signed. As was the Tyson Chandler deal. I think the Booker extension will age well like the Bradley Beal one a couple of years ago, but he’s going to be making the same money next season as Embiid/Towns/AD and they have All-Star game/All-NBA appearances/more than 24 wins in a season to show for it. Ayton is going to be fine but he’ll be compared to Doncic/Trae/Bagley/JJJ forever and each will have their case.
The ownership is historically bad, go look at the draft night trades of Luol Deng/Rajon Rondo if you’re not familiar. James Jones might be good, but he signed Jamal Crawford and then traded for Tyler Johnson. This defeats the point of a rebuilding season and gambling on both Okobo and Melton. Rivers and Ellington will be suiting up in the playoffs for their new teams and still collecting checks from the Suns. Jones might just be bad. Igor was doomed by the previous two, but he might stink too. The coach hiring history doesn’t give much hope. These are the coaches Devin Booker has played for in his NBA career along with their Suns record:
-Jeff Hornacek (14-35)
-Earl Watson (33-85)
-Jay Triano (21-58)
-Igor Kokoskov (19-63)
Christ almighty, who could succeed under these circumstances???
3. What the hell do you even do this summer
Booker, Bridges, Jackson, Okobo, Melton, and Ayton are all 22 or younger. So are Ja Morant, RJ Barrett, whoever they draft in June. Chandler, Ariza, Crawford, Johnson, and Anderson as the vets didn’t help at all. They’ll have money in free agency and they can get guys, but they aren’t the top or even second-tier guys. They’re not getting Durant/Kawhi/Kyrie. Kemba is interesting but that makes for a rough defensive backcourt to build around. Same for throwing a max offer at D’Angelo Russell. Is Khris Middleton moving the needle here? Is dropping Jimmy Butler into THIS locker room a good idea? I’m just not sure what the route is unless they get Zion and they certainly don’t deserve him.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Be cautiously aggressive
Johnson has a player option for $19 million which he’ll probably accept. Maybe he thinks he can get a longer deal with more total cash elsewhere, but maybe not. If so, they have a future Bucks pick coming from the Bledsoe trade, they could use to get off the last year of his deal if need be. To be clear, I would not do this…unless I could get agreements with one of three guys that figures to be available this summer, via free agency or tampering. Either way will do.
The first is Kevin Durant. If he would agree to sign with your team, I think they should sig….No. That’s obvious, duh.
The first is Kemba. I understand the risks of a Kemba/Booker backcourt but I’d roll the dice on them offensively. Pray that Igor could craft a fake Rockets offense with Booker/Kemba/Ayton as your homeless man’s Harden/CP3/Capela, with shooting/defense around them.
The second is Mike Conley. Dropping him onto this team would make every single piece better and they have the cap space/assets to make a swap feasible. If Johnson opts in, maybe his salary/one of Okobo/Melton and the future Bucks pick is enough for Memphis to move on. Maybe they want an extended look at Josh Jackson or TJ Warren. Phoenix has enough pieces to get in the conversation and Conley would do wonders for Booker and particularly, Ayton.
The third is Algernon Horford. He has a $30 million dollar player option for next season and if I’m the Suns, I’d offer him the max to turn it down and come to Phoenix. I get it. It’s going to be a massive overpay but it’s going to have to be to get him to even consider leaving Boston. I think his max is in the 4-year/$150-160 million dollar range and my bet is that the good he will do for Ayton in the first two years will make the last two years tolerable. Ayton would play the role of Aron Baynes here and Al Horford would play the role of Al Horford.
Those are the (realistic) three and that’s it. Other pieces can help for sure (Pat Beverly/Paul Milsap/Malcolm Brogdon come to mind) but just about anyone else, I roll my cap space over or try to take on a bad contract to get an asset with it.
2. Decide on Josh Jackson
Mr. Untouchable himself. It hasn’t been a great first two years for Jackson. He hasn’t been good at the things he was supposed to be good at and he hasn’t improved the weaknesses in his game. It’s still very early for him and everything said above about the front office definitely applies to Jackson so I’m not ready to write him off just yet.
But he really hasn’t been good at anything, and he was old for his draft class so he was supposed to have an impact immediately. He has career shooting splits of 42/29/65 which means he’s not an offensive threat if he doesn’t have the ball. But when he has the ball, he’s more likely to turn it over than he is to get an assist or himself a good shot. He’s ranked 83/91 small forwards in Defensive Real Plus-Minus. The Suns can’t afford to have any non-shooters/defenders around Booker/Ayton so Jackson probably isn’t going to find himself in Phoenix. Whoever they draft this June is either taking the ball out of Jackson’s hands further or likely a better shooter/defender so he might get buried on the bench like Dragan Bender did. It’s not a great sign to cut bait on a top-5 pick this early, but holding onto a bad pick helps no one. I’d see if a team with a good coach would be willing to roll the dice on a lottery talent and try to recoup a helpful player/future pick for Jackson.
3. Get a jump on the trade market
Zion aside, nobody they draft is making a big mark on this team next season. None of the elite free agents will even meet with Phoenix. They’re going to have to try to get aggressive to get a jump on the trade market. Try to get the guys that are about to be displaced by the draft or free agency.
Maybe you can buy low on Lonzo if a star guard comes to LA. He’s the type of backcourt mate Booker could work well with. Conley is another one. If Zion goes to Cleveland, maybe Kevin Love is available. If Jimmy Butler goes to Miami, maybe you can get Justise Winslow for cheap. Something along those lines. Does Love take them to the next level? No, but they have cap space they can’t give away and a locker room that can’t take any more young players. They fucking sucked this year, ANYTHING would help. PG Justise playing off Booker. Kevin Love spacing things for Ayton. I’m not sure if the same training staff is in Phoenix, but if so Lonzo should be chomping at the bit to get there. There’s plenty of talent available and ways to get it if you’re smart. We just have no reason to believe Phoenix is.
Rebuild Status: Oh no.