Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Miami Heat Edition

Welcome back,

Today we’ll be taking a look at Los Heatos. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only fourteen: Kings, Lakers, Cavs, Wizards, Pelicans, Suns, Wolves, Mavs, Hawks, Magic, Hornets, Knicks, Bulls, and Grizzlies.

I’ll take a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.

Miami Heat (39-43, 10th place Eastern Conference)

Good Things

1. Defensive identity

The Heat finished 6th in Defensive Rating, their fourth straight year in the top-nine. Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo are different types of centers, but the Heat were able to craft great defenses with either at the helm. The versatility of Josh Richardson/ Justise Winslow/ Derrick Jones allowed them to keep long, switchable defenders on the court at all times with Whiteside/Bam backing them up. Each of those five guys listed are all under contract next season and the Heat’s history suggests they’ll be a top ten defense again next year.

2. Great rebounding team

The Heat are fifth in the league in offensive rebounding % and tenth in defensive rebounding %. Every team ahead of them (in each category) made the playoffs. If you’re going to build a big team in a league going smaller, you have dominate where you have the advantage and the Heat did that.

3. The young talent all performed

CPF Justise Winslow found new life at point guard this season due to necessity. Goran Dragic got injured and Winslow stepped in at PG, and the Heat started playing better. He became an on-ball threat…well, because he had the ball, his 3-pointer held up (38% 3P on four attempts) and on he could credibly defend multiple positions. Maybe he’s not the point guard of their future but with his 3P/defense, he’s shown he can play off/with another PG or initiate for a bench unit. Then again, maybe he is their future. He’s 23 and this is the worst he’ll ever be at a new position. Either way, he’s locked up on a reasonable three-year extension that hasn’t started yet.

Josh Richardson’s four-year extension kicked in this season and so far so good. His FG and 3P percentages took a dip from last season but he was asked to do a lot more. He and Winslow took the teams toughest defensive assignments and Richardson also led the Heat in minutes, field goals and PPG. That’s too much offensive burden for a good team but I like the Heat/Richardson using this season to try to expand that role. If he’s your third/fourth option and can focus on defending, he’s a great piece.

You know what stinks about Bam Adebayo? He’s the only UK player my father and I ever disagreed about (I said he’d be good in the NBA, my dad disagreed) and I can’t even brag that I was right. I’d say Bam is 21 and led this team in win shares and box plus-minus.  You think I can go to my old man with this information and have him concede defeat? He’d say he averaged 9 PPG and tell me to get my nerd numbers out of his face. He led the team in true shooting percentage too but you think my Pops wants to hear that?? Smh.

Bad Things

1. The salary cap is a wreck

This team led the NBA in payroll this season. With zero changes, they’ll be fourth in payroll next year and right up against the luxury tax again. It’s the reason they waived Rodney McGruder this season (the Clippers picked him up) after a decent season. Giving McGruder away isn’t what’s keeping them from a dynasty, but being so close to the luxury tax for a team that couldn’t win 40 games that you literally have to give talent away? Feels like a bad sign. Glass half full take: They’ve learned they can develop the next McGruder instead of overpaying this one and killing their own cap. But it’ll be another two seasons before they have all of Whiteside, Dragic, Ryan Anderson, Olynyk, James Johnson, Waiters off the books. There are stars available this summer and they can make space if need be, but boy it’d be a lot easier if they didn’t have $48 million dollars in Whiteside/Anderson next season.

2. Offensive identity

They were great defensively and great rebounding but buddy they stunk on offense. The Heat were 26th in offensive rating and Spoelstra should get COTY nods for getting them that high with Richardson/Retirement Tour Wade as the top two shot takers. This is a team full of role players and their starting PG missed half of the season so there is some room for internal improvement here. Which is good because it will have to come from there as their salary cap situation is fucked, as aforementioned.

3. Draft capital

Their 2016 first rounder went to *check notes* Cleveland as it fulfilled the last pick in the Lebron to Miami trade. The 2018 pick went in the Goran Dragic trade. They have their own pick this year and next, and they have drafted well when they do have picks (Bam, Winslow, Richardson are their only three picks since 2015) but they still owe a 2021 pick from the Dragic trade. Their roster locks them into another middling record/pick next season, and then they lose that following pick year unprotected.

Trilly’s Summer Prescription

1. Value

Their best players are also their cheapest players so there’s great value here, but again there is also $40 million dollars of Olynyk/Johnson/Waiters next season. Dragic has an option for this summer and Johnson/Olynyk have options for the following summer. If they could be persuaded to opt out for more total money elsewhere or lifetime security from Pat Riley and the Heat Mob family, the Heat could turn into a destination sooner rather than later. Say Dragic opts out this summer and they can get off Anderson/Whiteside’s contracts with future picks, that opens up about $60 million for next year and they’d be able to add precisely one (1) max player. But whom?

2. They’ll get meetings

They don’t have cap space now per se` but if Jimmy Butler says he’d meet with Miami, they’d have the cap space created by the time he got off the plane. Now, just because they COULD open up this cap space with a couple of trades (this year’s pick + the last year off Anderson OR next year’s pick + the last year off Whiteside) doesn’t mean they SHOULD.

While I do think dropping Jimmy Butler on this roster makes some sense from a talent/personality fit, I’m not sure how much rearranging I’d be willing to do. A Butler/Richardson/Winslow/Adebayo core would be hell on defense and better on offense than they are now. But with no other young pieces to build with/around them, you’d be moving around the chance for a good future for a solid now. I’m not so sure I would do it, but I see both sides.

3. Actually, now I’m thinking about both sides

Maybe they should do what it takes to get Butler. A max contract will be a risk in money and years, but talent-wise he’s still one of the 20 best players in the league and if one of those guys says they’ll sign, you sign. They’d have a relatively low ceiling unless a young piece takes an unforeseen leap (very possible) but a reasonable floor. That’s a five or six seed in the East, and for a team with one postseason series victory since Bron was in South Beach, you could do a lot worse. More cap space opens up next summer and maybe you can convince another star to sign before it’s time to pay Bam. The Heat have shown they’ll spend at/around the luxury tax for a winner, so this might not be too farfetched. It’s a lot of “maybe” but there’s hope and that’s more than many of these teams have.

Rebuild status: Oh hell yea