Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Memphis Grizzlies Edition
Greetings,
As mentioned in this Tuesday’s Tape, I’m going to try to start grading every NBA team’s rebuild. I’m not sure how often these will come out or if I will even finish this one, so your guess is as good as mine for how long this goes!
I’m going to be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed miserably at and three things they could do this summer to stop stinking. I’ll be issuing one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
First up, the Memphis Grizzlies. Why them first? Idk.
Memphis Grizzlies (28-40, 13th seed Western Conference)
Good Things
1. All they had to do in the 2018 draft was not fuck up and they’d win.
I am happy to announce they did not fuck up. Jaren Jackson Jr. has looked great and I think he’s going to be a star. Not a “JJJ is averaging 27-12-3″ type star, but a “Wow, JJJ is basically a younger, bigger, cooler Al Horford” type star. His versatility gives them a lot of options moving forward on how to build around him.
2. They did not add any bad contracts
Coming into the season they had Gasol, Conley and *adjusts glasses* CHANDLER PARSONS on big deals. Gasol is gone. Next season is the last year of Parson’s deal. CPF Mike Conley is at a sweet spot in his deal. After this season, he has two years left for $66 million total. Steep, there’s no doubt about it. But he’s been very good this year, playing in 64 of Memphis’ 68 games, and doing typical Mike Conley things. Taking the right shots, making a good number of them, not turning the ball over, competing defensively, etc. For 2 years/$66 mill, I’d rather roll the dice on him than end up like Houston with 3 years/$124 million left on that CP3 deal or the five years it may take for Charlotte to keep Kemba this summer.
A team with cap space that knows they won’t be able to use it should kick the tires on Conley. The Jazz should see if Exum and the #20 pick this year is enough. Indiana could offer Aaron Holiday/Doug McDermott/#26 pick. I’d love to see the Pistons get in there but it would probably have to involve Reggie Jackson…which if it came with some combo of Bruce Brown/Khyri Thomas/ Svi Jacob Jingleheimer Smith/#17 pick. I don’t think it will take much, as Memphis is probably ready to go full rebuild and add a pick to replace the one they’ll eventually send to Boston.
3. Guys did some things for them this season
This is the expert analysis you come to Trilly (me) for. Jonas Valanciunas has looked great since he got to Memphis. He could have sulked going from a title contender to a rebuilding team. Ditto for Delon Wright, and he’s shown some flashes. Avery Bradley sucked in Detroit last year and he sucked in Los Angeles this year, but he’s basically been Klay Thompson for the Grizzlies: 17/3/4 on 47/42/92 in a VERY small sample size. I didn’t even know Joakim Noah was still alive and he’s been great for two months. He’s exactly the type of big I’d want JJJ learning from….on court. Kyle Anderson is at career highs in points/rebounds/assists and trails only Paul George and RoCo in DRPM for his position.
This is a credit to all the guys above, no question. I also think it’s also a credit to JB Bickerstaff and the front office in Memphis. The old guys are playing well. The young guys are playing well. The free agent pickups are playing well. Rick Carlisle and Erik Spoelstra have taught us there is value to getting productive minutes out of guys traditionally at the end of the bench, or worse. The vibe around the team, from what I have gathered solely from the internet, seems to be fine for a lottery team. There are no “2019 Lakers” or “Just About Every Year Wizards” vibes here. It’s a good sign because they may be in for a long rebuild.
The Bad
1. They might be a little too frisky
They’re currently on pace for the #7 pick, with a 32% chance for a top-four pick and a 7.5% chance of #1 overall. Not bad, but Dallas is .003 percentage points ahead of them for the #6 pick but that comes with a 37% top-four chance and 9% chance of #1. Every bit helps but Dallas has lost five in a row, while Memphis has won three so they aren’t helping their own cause. One more loss is well worth the chance of even sneaking into the top-four.
2. Bro what the hell happened with Chandler Parsons
The contract is a sunk cost but last year he showed flashes of productivity. This year, he’s aggressively stunk. They could package a future pick with him to get the last year of that deal off the books but I wouldn’t bother.
3. Minimal young assets
JJJ and former Raptors aside, the Grizzlies young assets are looking……bear. Please laugh.
No, but seriously, Rabb/Brooks/Carter are all fine pieces but JJJ doesn’t have any long term running mates yet. Maybe Delon Wright is a piece. Maybe that #7 pick is. We shall see.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Don’t draft a bad player.
#7 is a weird spot to be at in this draft. You miss out on the elite prospects but you have your pick of the damaged goods. Draft the least damaged one. We see steals in the 10’s, 20’s and 30’s every draft year. Don’t overthink it at #7. I’d aim for Zion. That’s just me.
2. Don’t get cute
As I mentioned, you’re almost off all the bad contracts you have. Don’t let Valanciunas scare you into opting out so you give him a ridiculous deal. If you do move Conley, sit on that cap space. Unless Durant says he wants to come to Memphis. He might, idk.
3. Let JB Bickerstaff cook
Memphis is 28th in offensive efficiency. Makes sense, as outside of Conley there’s just not a lot there offensively. They’re 6th in defensive efficiency though, the highest of any non-playoff team. Every other team with 40+ losses this season is 25th or lower in DE. The Grizzlies were 27th in OE, 24th in DE last season. You can build a playoff team with a great defense and an average offense (Indiana, Utah, Memphis, OKC) so Memphis may not be too far away from fake contention if they can get the offense from abysmal to average.
That jump for a young team is a great look, and Bickerstaff deserves some credit for it. You’d hope this is obvious, as Bickerstaff just signed a deal last April but you have no idea how NBA owners think. Tom Thibodeaux and Joe Prunty both coached playoff games within the last 12 months. Multiple coaches have won Coach of the Year and promptly been fired. You really never know. It’s not the whole story of course and they have some things to improve this summer but the coach isn’t one of them.
Rebuild status: Oh hell yea