Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Atlanta Hawks Edition
Welcome back,
We jump from my old love to my new flame, the Atlanta Hawks. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only five.
The rules are the same: I’m going to be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed miserably at and three things they could do this summer to stop stinking. I’ll be issuing one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Atlanta Hawks (27-49, 12th place Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. This is about as well as a tank can go
The only thing that could be better is the Hawks with 17 wins instead of 27, giving them a better chance at getting Zion but it’s nitpicking. The reason they have 27 wins instead of 17 is that they’ve found a star. Trae Young is at 26/5/9 on 45-39-87 shooting since the All-Star break. He’s taking over 7 three-pointers and free throws a game over that stretch showing that he’s taking the exact kind of shots he needs to in order to play to his strengths. I like the fact that after Trae’s breakout February, his number of three’s taken actually went down. He didn’t get the hot hand and start just chucking shots, he more or less played the same game he had been all year. The shots just started falling.
The Hawks have their star (Trae), a promising supporting cast (John Collins, The Big Huert), cap space (projected $52 million going into this summer with $31 million dollars of Kent Bazemore/Miles Plumlee expiring after next season) and draft capital (all their own first rounders as well as picks from Dallas/Cleveland to come). They’re also in a big city in the worst division of the JV conference. Maybe none of those three things help, but they shouldn’t hurt.
The Hawks, at 27 wins, have a 10.5 % chance of getting the top overall pick and a 42% chance of getting a top-four pick. The Knicks, at 14 wins, have a 14 % chance of getting the top overall pick and a 52% chance of getting a top-four pick.
Not really that much difference for about TWICE AS MANY WINS. As of right now, Atlanta is projected to have the #5 pick (their own) and the #6 pick (from Dallas). Seeing as the top 5 protection would hand Zion to Dallas if the Mavs win the lottery, the Hawks are in a bit of a tricky spot. The #6 pick in this draft is….uninspiring, but a healthy Doncic/KP and a top 4 pick are going to make this pick a lot worse next year in an unknown draft. Again, it’s splitting hairs. The Hawks are sitting pretty.
2. Solid young projects and veteran rehabs
I like when a team is able to bring in guys off the street and get production out of them. I feel like we (read: I) have multiple “How did Nerlens not work in Dallas?” or “Nobody could have used Kenneth Faried??” moments a season so I like when veterans that may have bounced around a little bit are able to find their footing on a team.
CPF Dewayne Dedmon hadn’t taken a single 3P in the NBA before joining the Hawks last year. Over the past two seasons, he’s hit 37% of his 3Ps and he’s taking nearly three a game. Add in the fact that he has a block rate that has him right between Clint Capela and Giannis this season, and that’s a valuable piece. Alex Len is averaging a career high in PPG and is expanding his range to 3P range, much like Dedmon did last year. Even Methuselah Carter is having his best season since 2012 when he was a spry 57. Dedmon hits UFA, but the trust that your team can find/develop the next Dedmon gives you the faith not to overpay to keep this one in July.
In the non-Trae/John/Huerter division of young guys, Tauren Prince (more on him later), DeAndre Bembry, and Omari Spellman have all shown flashes and they’re dirt cheap for at least another season.
3. HC Lloyd Pierce/ GM Travis Schlenk may be the real deal
I like the cut of Schlenk’s jib. His first move ever was trading Dwight Howard. His second move ever was drafting John Collins. His second trade was trading a 2019 2nd round pick (projected to be the #57th pick this year) for the 2018 first round pick that became Omari Spellman and $1.3 million dollars cash (CASH). Sidebar: I am experimenting with ad-libs within my own blogs. Bare with me.
That’s the entire trade. Because they were willing to take on Jamal Crawford’s salary and then waive him, they turned pick #57 into #30 and added almost enough cash to cover Spellman’s rookie salary outright. That’s a savvy move a GM that has cap space and knows how to use it makes. More on the Luka/Trae trade later but I love the balls it even took to make that deal. He trusts himself so much he knows he can turn that Mavs pick into another great piece. We’ll see if he’s right, but I like the start he’s off to. He also has the gaze of a man who may or may not have tasted soylent green nd liked it:
I like that in my GM.
As for Pierce, he’s been getting rave reviews for years with his player development work. He worked with Danny Green (Cleveland), Tony Allen (Memphis), Robert Covington (Philly) and Steph Curry (You know where the fuck Steph Curry plays) as young players and all credit him with playing a part in their growth. Vince Carter credited him just this week on keeping positive energy in the locker room during a rebuilding year. At this point in the rebuild, I care a lot more about those kinds of things than on-court production unless there’s a glaring weakness. I haven’t seen that with Pierce. I wonder about his rotations at times, how the “players coach” tag goes if things hit a snag and if he’ll get the chance to coach through his mistakes the way Brett Brown is. As for now, the Hawks have an identity which is more than some rebuilding teams can say. They play fast (#1 in pace) and they shoot a lot of three’s (4th in 3PAr). They don’t necessarily hit a lot of three’s per se (16th in 3p%) but that’s fine considering the pace they’re jacking them. Pierce has a vision and Schlenk seems like he’ll be able to acquire the pieces to fit that vision.
Bad things
1. It could have been Luka
I know. I know it’s been beaten into the ground and will continue to be, but I have to address it. The Hawks probably should have just kept Luka. He’s better now, he projects to be better and defensively he shouldn’t be as big of an issue as Trae. It’s one thing to trade a future pick that turns into Luka but it’s quite another to have him in hand and then trade him away for two more rolls of the dice. If Luke/Trae continue their trajectories and that extra pick turns out to be a regular #6 or 7 pick, you might have tried to get too cute and got played.
2. Defensive identity
The Hawks are 26th in defensive efficiency, which sounds about right for a young/tanking team. There’s nothing too concerning about that, except for the fact that most of their promising pieces don’t look too promising defensively. Trae Young is dead last in defensive RPM, for any position (508/508). John Collins is ranked 88/98 among power forwards. Taurean Prince is 87/89 for small forwards. The Big Huert is slightly better (45/115) but was still a net negative for the season. Again, all three of these guys are young, they’re playing for a rookie coach and without an elite rim protector. They’ll get better but it’s a looooooooong road for them to even become average defensive players.
3. What is Taurean Prince?
Things look fine with Prince, in theory. He’s at 13/4/2 on 45/39/84 shooting on a good number of 3PA’s. But the Hawks are just better when he is not on the floor.
For an already bad team to be seven+ points even WORSE with you on the court seems like an issue. This is easily his worst defensive season and he’s trending downward in his three seasons. He’s played over 60 games only once in his career and he’s eligible for an extension this summer. He’s fine and keeping him isn’t the worst thing in the world. There are a lot of new parts on this team, and he battled his most injuries this season. To his credit his March has looked a lot better, 14/3/3 on 52/48/88 shooting and more importantly:
Again, a reasonable extension wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. He’s fine. Only in THIS™ NBA, I’m not sure if “fine” cuts it on the wing anymore. I don’t even mean for going up against the Giannis/Lebron/Durant wings of the world, nobody can guard those guys. There’s a world of Tobias Harris/Khris Middleton/Bojan Bogdanovich you have to deal with every night in the East and “fine” is gonna get 34 points put on your head by Danilo Galinari. Tony Snell and Solomon Hill were “fine” once upon a time and then they signed $40+ million dollar deals and “fine” turned to “foh” real fast.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. You can’t win the Luka/Trae battle but you can win the war
You’re going to hear about what it becomes forever so they have to nail this Mavs pick. It doesn’t have to be a star but it can’t be Dragan Bender or Marquesse Chriss.
On the other hand, if Atlanta wins the lottery with their own pick and gets Zion they can definitely win the war here. Add Zion and someone like Jarrett Culver/De’Andre Hunter/maybe even Brandon Clarke if they’re adventurous with the Mavs pick and you’re cooking with grease. If the Basketball Gods are fair and just (which we know is not true because imagine anything at all being fair and just LMAO) then Atlanta will win the draft lottery. They’re easily the most competent of the bottom 5 front offices (Knicks, Suns, Cavs, Bulls) and Trae-to-Zion alley oops and Zion/Collins attempting to break rims would be amazing. If you don’t have a horse in the lottery race, root for Zion to Atlanta. Imagine Zion in the jerseys from the Dominiq….actually hold that thought:
I’ve got three words for that: Ooh, la and la.
2. Stay creative with cap space this summer
$52 million dollars in cap space is enough to have some fun. Schlenk has already shown he’ll take on a bad deal to get an extra asset. With the going rate for a year of bad salary being one first rounder (Kenneth Faried the most recent example), you could probably grab an extra pick from a team up against the luxury tax. The Heat aren’t very good and are already at $135 million for next years payroll. The luxury tax is $132 million. You may be able to get a future first rounder for taking back one year of Hassan Whiteside ($27 mill) or Ryan Anderson ($21 mill). OKC is going to be at $146 million and will certainly be looking to add to a very good team. That last year of Andre Roberson ($10 mill) might be able to get you a first round pick. What you do with Whiteside/Anderson/Roberson/whoever doesn’t matter. Try to rehab them, trade them, cut em. It doesn’t matter because it’s not about them. You want the pick. Of course, it will be a late first-round pick which nobody cares about…until they turn into Rudy Gobert, Pascal Siakam or Dejounte Murray.
3. Don’t be afraid to spend
There are no windows in the NBA, or any sport really. Maybe Kawhi, Kyrie, and Butler go west. Kemba stays in Charlotte so they aren’t a threat. Nobody joins either of the New York teams and Oladipo’s recovery takes a little longer than expected. There’s no shame in still being young/under the cap and battling as a lower seed for a couple of seasons during the rebuild. You never know what happens this summer and you could slide right into a playoff seed. If Schlenk trusts himself, he knows he can find a gem picking at #9 or #19.
Atlanta can have their cake and eat it too. What I mean by that is that they can spend money to improve their team and also force other teams into tough decisions. Malcolm Brogdon is a RFA this summer. Milwaukee is already at $100 million in payroll for next summer, and that doesn’t Middleton/Mirotic/Lopez. The max for Brogdon is 4 years and $100+ million. It’s big pricey. But if the Bucks match, they’re up against the luxury tax and have to start making the “Take Tony Snell and a first rounder” trades and can’t continue to build around Giannis. If the Bucks don’t match, you have Brogdon to help Trae’s defensive shortcomings, as added ballhandling and perimeter defense. Nobody did this to the Rockets last summer for Clint Capela and as a result, they got him back for slightly more than Minnesota is paying Gorgui Dieng until 2021. Do the same for Porzingis. Of course, Dallas matches, but make them guarantee 4 years to those knees. Maybe you end up with Brogdon being extremely overpaid but you have the money, he helps you out and all your good players are dirt cheap. This is when you should be spending. Or not. Either way, the Hawks appear to be set moving forward.
Rebuild status: Oh hell yea