Rumormongering About Potential Patriots QBs Vol. III: Jimmy Garoppolo

Cj Gunther. Shutterstock Images.

This is the third in a series. Volume I: Aaron Rodgers is here. And this is Volume II, me being right about Matthew Stafford not coming to New England.

Speaking as someone who's never lived outside of Rte 495, I can tell you this whole business of spending an offseason desperately casting about for a quarterback … arms flailing … legs akimbo ..., is something I haven't experienced since the 1980s and very early '90s. And if I recall correctly, the factory setting on quarterbackless franchises involves taking the best available with your first draft pick and/or grabbing the backup from the best offense you can possibly raid. Which is how the the Patriots ended up with Tony Eason and veterans like Marc Wilson and Hugh Millen. 

This offseason they've got the same need, but the situation couldn't be more different. A lot of QBs are going to become available. The draft is top heavy at the position, with at least four and perhaps as many as six coming off the board in Round One. And veterans are going to be attainable in trades and free agency as fully half the league is going to have to jettison cargo when the salary cap plummets. 

So rumormongeringwise, there's no reason to aim small. Now is a time to dream big dreams. Rodgers? Possibly. Stafford and Jared Goff have already been dealt. Deshaun Watson? He's on the market. With many more partners still to be swapped at the masked orgy in a mansion that will be the 2021 quarterback market. This Football Guys Wide Shut. And there's a good chance that one of them will be Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Yes, he's still under contract with San Francisco. But the rumors they're ready to move on have been pervasive. There's enough smoke here to determine there is, in fact, a fire. Just a few examples:

• This report from November that quoted "multiple execs" who think the Niners are interested in moving on from Garoppolo.
• This conversation after the Patriots-49ers game where the mics picked up Josh McDaniels telling Jimmy G "I'll stay in touch."
• This from yesterday's MMQB that, while "they're fine going forward with Jimmy Garoppolo," the Niners did make an offer for Stafford.
• Lifelong member of Belichick's inner circle Mike Lombardi saying that he's got the Patriots installed as "even money" to land him:

• Mike Reiss' suggestion that if the Niners land Watson, the Patriots will jump on Garoppolo.
• The simple fact that GM John Lynch can look at the stats and not see an appreciable difference between Jimmy G and Nick Mullens;

Not everyone is on board with the idea. While acknowledging San Fran might have to release Garoppolo outright, especially if they add another QB, because they have just $10 million of available cap space, Greg Bedard quoted sources in the Patriots organization who are not sold on Garoppolo:

Yes, the Patriots would very much be open to reuniting with Garoppolo, but don’t expect them to appear desperate. Garoppolo’s lack of durability is an issue with the team and could make them play hardball with the contract. There are questions internally about how tough Garoppolo is, ultimately. Especially in comparison to Tom Brady. It doesn’t get any tougher than that.

“Jimmy’s not exactly as tough as you would like,” said one source.

It's not an unfair criticism. He's only been a starter since midway through 2017 and he's already missed 25 career games with injuries. But if people inside the Patriots recognize it, it only makes sense that the 49ers would be thinking about it too. Still, just because he has been injured doesn't mean he'll always be. Like the financial analysts are forced to say by law, past performance does not guarantee future results. So let's not let the part about toughness overshadow what he's reporting about the team being "very much open" to a reunion. This is a guy who took his team to the Super Bowl just 52 weeks ago. 

A lot of this seemed to be predicated on the assumption that Stafford had San Francisco on his short list of preferred destinations. Yeah, well. Last April I had Ireland on mine. Plans change. There are still plenty of QBs who are likely to move, beginning with Watson. If John Lynch lands one of them, he'll have Belichick waiting in a breakout room of that Zoom call, ready to send his 2nd rounder, as a sort of take back for the No. 43 pick Lynch sent him in the 2018 draft.  And even if the Niners don't swing a trade or sign a free agent QB, they're sitting on the 12th pick. Though the odds of them starting over with a rookie seem a lot slimmer than using that pick in a package for Watson or to haul in some other veteran who'll make them a contender again. 

As far as the salary cap being a driving force behind any decision, here's how the Sacramento Bee explains the numbers:

The pandemic is expected to cause the salary cap to dip in 2021 from $210 million to roughly $175, meaning Garoppolo’s $26.9 million cap hit will be more burdensome than expected while the 49ers have a slew of free agents to re-sign — headlined by cornerback Richard Sherman and left tackle Trent Williams — and young centerpieces to reward with new contracts. They already did with tight end George Kittle and defensive lineman Arik Armstead, while star linebacker Fred Warner is next in line. 

The team is currently in cost-cutting mode, evident by decisions to trade away DeForest Buckner in the spring and Kwon Alexander this week.

And according to people who are able to communicate in the weird "Arrival"-like language of the cap, Garoppolo's guaranteed money has virtually all been paid, meaning it's advantageous to the Niners to get out from under that cap hit now. I can't explain it and I don't try. But when they dumb it down for me like I'm four years old, that's what they say. 

So injury concerns and payroll accounting aside, I can't imagine the Pats not being very, very much invested in the Jimmy G Futures Market. They know that, even if there's another disruption in the offseason, he's ready from Day One to step in and lead this offense. They've worked with him and like him. In a world where Tom Brady had aged like a mortal human being he'd be their quarterback anyway. He needs to cut down on his turnovers, but in his one full season he was in the top eight in every major passing statistic. And he's already proven he can win in this league. So why wouldn't they be? If they do manage to reacquire Garoppolo, they'll automatically be back in Super Bowl contention. So right now we should all hope San Francisco lands a new franchise quarterback. I know I am. Let's put the band back together.

The chances Jimmy Garoppolo comes (back) to New England: 50%