Rumormongering About Potential Patriots QBs Vol. I: Aaron Rodgers

Boston Globe. Getty Images.

If I've learned anything from the experience of covering a team that missed the playoffs for the first time in 11 years - and that is extremely doubtful - it is this. For the teams that have nothing better to do in January, Rumor Season starts early. Much earlier than we're accustomed to in New England. For us, the really crazy stuff usually doesn't start until the beginning of the league year or so. But here it is, upon us. And this offseason, with the Patriots still in transition and with Brinks trucks filled with cap room to spend, the rumors are already industrial strength. So we might as well embrace it. 

Besides, rumors are not a bad thing. Call it what you will. Gossip. Talk. Buzz. Heat. Hearsay. Innuendo. Rumblings. Spin. I'd add scuttlebutt but it's not the 1930s. It's part of our nature. As a matter of fact, in the book "Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind," author Yuval Noah Harari credits gossip with being one of the great civilizing influences on our  species. The ability to speak and the desired to pull Og aside and tell him you think Uru hasn't been doing dick during the woolly mammoth hunt but he's still helping himself to the best cuts of meat and fur created helpful social tools like shame and peer pressure that served the greater good. 

And as we hit the 2021 offseason, no team will be the subject of more rumors than the Patriots in general, and their quarterback position in particular. There's no way we can imagine Bill Belichick flopping on his couch in Nantucket with his girlfriend by his side and his dog at his feet watching Tom Brady take a light saber through the Chiefs defense without him vowing that another season with 12 total touchdown passes will happen again while he walks this Earth. 

So this is the first of a series examining all the quarterbacks that are linked to New England by the rumor mill, to try and gauge the likelihood it could actually happen. First up: Aaron Rodgers. 

It all began with this thunderbolt Rodgers threw out of the blue after losing the first home conference championship of his career. When he was asked a fairly innocuous  question about Marquez Valdes-Scantling:

“All the guys’ futures are uncertain, myself included. There are a lot of unknowns going into this offseason, and I’m going to have to take some time away, for sure, and clear my head and just kind of see what’s going on with everything.”

Even allowing for the fact that it was an emotional time and we're all capable of saying things we don't mean when we've consumed the toxic cocktail of single malt disappointment and distilled frustration, that was a weird pivot. It's not a huge leap in logic to assume he was hacked off enough about another year of his career wasted, the team they've built around him and Matt LaFleur's inexcusable decision to kick a field goal down by eight, that he came into the presser determined to bring up the subject of his future. 

As Michael Silver put it on NFL.com:

In late April, when general manager Brian Gutekunst traded up in the first round to draft … Utah State quarterback Jordan Love -- well, Rodgers did more than notice. No, he wasn't thrilled. Not only had Green Bay aggressively coveted his successor … in a draft considered receiver-rich, [they] elected not to select a single wideout. …

The Packers …appeared to be telling Rodgers … We do things our way, and we're already looking past this era -- but hey, if you want to up your game to an even more ethereal level and carry the guys we've already got as far as they can possibly go, have at it! …

When he spoke, I believe he delivered a message to his bosses, one I’d roughly translate thusly: Your way of doing business has to change, or maybe I should be on my way.

And it didn't take long for the people who track such things to speculate on which direction Rodgers "way" might lead him:

As intriguing as the possibility is of a pissed off Aaron Rodgers wanting out of Green Bay, but under his own terms and not watching the team move on from him like he watched them do with Brett Favre, coming to New England at the age of 37 with a ton to prove, we can't even give it a thought without some grownup talk. Until we wake up naked in a pod filled with goo and realize we've been in the Matrix all along, we still have to deal with reality on reality's terms. Rodgers probably does have the juice to force his way out of town the way Deshaun Watson is. But nothing happens in a vacuum. Any move involving him still has to satisfy the gang in accounting. Here's how Pro Football Talk explains the salary cap implications, since I'm not capable:

First, trading Rodgers costs the Packers nothing; the team would simply take a cap charge from unallocated bonus payments. In Rodgers’ case, past bonus payments already will count for $14.352 million in his 2021 cap number. Trading him before June 1 (more on that in a second) would accelerate $17.204 million into 2021, bumping the total cap charge to $31.556 million.

That’s a lot, to be sure. But Rodgers, with $22.35 million in 2021 compensation, already has a cap number of $37.572 million. Thus, trading him before June 1 (more on that in a second) would actually create a net cap savings of $6.016 million.

Jordan Love, the man drafted in April ostensibly to replace Rodgers, has a cap number of $2.814 million in 2021.

The fact most overlooked by the THIRTY-ONE MILLION CAP HIT! crowd is this: The Packers could keep the cap charge at $14.352 million for 2021 by trading Rodgers after June 1. … And if, in the interim, if Rodgers gets a playbook and participates in Zoom sessions and informally works out with his future teammates, who’s going to complain about that?

tl;dr: Rodgers is super expensive if he gets traded before June 1st. But if the Packers and a trading partner agree on a deal and just don't make it official until June 2nd, it makes financial sense for everyone. For those reasons that can only be explained by people who actually read and understand the Apple terms of service before they accept.

But again, this is salary cap talk. Meaning when you check with five different experts, you get 10 different answers. At the risk of there being too much math on this exam, SportTrac broke it down as well. And while agreeing with PFT's numbers, they conclude:

Trading Aaron Rodgers is a terrible idea - both from a football standpoint and a business one as well. Even if Jordan Love is being groomed as the next option, it’s inconceivable to assume he’s at a ready point to take over, and the unavoidable dead cap figures to move on from Rodgers are just too high to handle - in any scenario.

The Solution
Do what the Patriots refused to do in 2019 or 2020. Go ALL-IN on your roster for 1 season. … This isn’t (just) about legacy, it’s actually bad business to have Aaron Rodgers playing somewhere else. The alternative is to please him, and aren’t there worse things than making an MVP happy?

None of which even begins to address what it would take to acquire a guy who's about to win his third MVP, just posted his highest passer rating in 10 years (second highest of his career), while leading the league in completion %, TDs, TD%, INT%, average yards per attempt and QBR. Even if Rodgers demands a trade, the season he just completed make it a seller's market for sure. Even at 37, you're not going to get him for a 2nd rounder like the Niners used to get Jimmy Garoppolo. It's going to take multiple picks. At least one of them a 1st rounder. And you're not going to sweeten the pot with a bunch of Day 3 picks. It's going to take a whole buffet of 2nds and 3rds to go along with that 1st. Which this year happens to be the highest Belichick has had since he took Jerod Mayo at No. 10 in 2008. 

My guess is Belichick would love to have Rodgers. The second the trade is announced his team would have the same odds as Kansas City of winning the AFC. But it would require loading up to win here and now. "Going all in," to use the cliche. After several years of doing that and paying the price for it this year, I just can't see Belichick taking another mortgage out on his team's future for a guy who'll be productive - even elite - for two or three years. Rodgers would have to come here at a relatively bargain rate. And it'll be smarter and easier for the Packers to make him happy than start over again with Jordan Love. 

Chances Aaron Rodgers comes to New England: 5%