NBA Draft Scouting Report: Aaron Holiday Next Up In Family To Get Drafted
As we transition from the college basketball season to NBA Draft season I’ll be breaking down the scouting reports for various players across the country who are expected to be in the NBA Draft. We’ll focus on seniors and those with agents to start, with the hope of hitting all of the college guys in my top-60. If there is someone specific you want on here, please let me know @barstoolreags. All videos are courtesy of Synergy and the stats will come from Synergy and KenPom.
Aaron Holiday –UCLA
6’1”, 4/lbs, 21 years old
Projected: No. 23 (DraftExpress) No. 33 (NBADraft.net)
Background: Aaron Holiday is the youngest brother of Jrue and Justin Holiday – both known NBA players. He recently announced his decision to declare for the Draft and give up his senior year by signing with an agent. He had one of the more unique college experiences as he came in as a freshman, starting on a below average UCLA team. As a sophomore, the Bruins brought in the likes of Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf, which turned Holiday into a 6th man – a role he played really well in. That year was also the year he played both on and off the ball, which made him even more of an intriguing prospect. This past year he was the go-to guy for UCLA, averaging over 20 points per game and was one of the 20 best players in college basketball. Unfortunately the lasting image of Holiday in a UCLA jersey is the play-in game against St. Bonaventure, where he absolutely struggled and his frustration showed on the court.
Strengths: There’s a lot to like about Holiday’s game, but to me the biggest strength is what I talked about in the previous paragraph. He’s a combo guard that has experience playing with a lead guard and can play on and off the ball. At 6’1″ he has questions about his size, but his wingspan more than helps with that. Offensively he can do a little bit of everything but is really an excellent shooter. He shot 42.9% from three this season and the worst he shot during his three years at UCLA is 41.1%. That translates to the free throw line, something scouts really look at when it comes to consistency with shooting, and you see that Holiday has improved all three years from the stripe, shooting 82% from three this year. He’s an excellent catch and shoot guy, ranking in the 98th percentile nationally after scoring 1.482 points per possession on 85 catch and shoot opportunities this year. What he does well – and you can see it in the clip below – is relocate to the correct spot. It’s something kind of mundane, but with spacing being as important as it is in the game now, it’s vital to know where to relocate while still letting the guy with the ball operate. That’s what Holiday does well. From there, he doesn’t get off the ground much, but his form is consistent. He immediately gets his feet set, which takes a half second off the time he catches to release. Similar to what I talked about with Brunson yesterday, Holiday does have a high release point as well.
He did take a dip back this year in terms of finishing at the rim, but it’s something he’s capable of. As a sophomore he ranked in the 81st percentile finishing around the rim in non post up situations. This year he was in the 49th percentile scoring 1.11 points per possessions. He does have some crafty finishes around the rim as he can finish off the wrong foot, has a runner and probably most importantly can finish off of one foot. With his size, his ability to get to the paint and finish there makes him even more enticing as a prospect. This play against USC sticks out to me.
First, he shows his ball-handling skills – another huge strength for him. He does an excellent job of keeping the ball on a string and low to the ground. He splits the double team at the high ball screen. After getting into the lane he shows one his unique finishes. This time it’s going to his weak hand as he’s fading left. He’s able to avoid contact, keep the ball at chin level and still glide to the rim before finishing with a lefty scoop. Again, this is a righty doing that, showing his ability to finish at the rim with both hands.
Defensively, he should be able to step in and help right away. He’s an absolute ball hawk and grades out as excellent on pick and roll defense. He’s averaged over 1 steal per game during his career at UCLA, but it’s that pick and roll defense that NBA scouts will enjoy. On 126 possessions this past year he gave up just .54 points per possession, grading in the 89th percentile nationally. With his size at 6’1″ he’s really only going to be able to guard other points, which isn’t a huge problem. As I mentioned, one of the things he’s known for is bringing defensive intensity and hounding other guards. Part of what makes him strong against the pick and roll is he avoids contact. That’s a testament to his footwork, something when you watch him defensively stands out. He doesn’t stand still and constantly slides, staying in the right position. Combining that with his athleticism and that’s how you get a strong pick and roll defender.
Weaknesses: My biggest problem with Holiday is he’s not great at shooting off the dribble. At 6’1″ he’s going to have to get better at shooting off the bounce, especially from three. I mentioned he’s excellent at catch and shoot situations, but he scored just .879 points per possession on dribble pull ups. It’s not even the PPP that bothers me, it’s more the lack of attempts. He attempted just 124 shots off the dribble in the halfcourt this past season. Part of that can be the analytical side of catch and shoot threes or getting to the rim, but at the NBA level, he’s going to have to hit threes off the bounce. He can create for himself, but the question will be can he create for himself from deep? The other weakness – and it’s not even a true weakness – is you know what you’re getting with Holiday. Similar to Brunson his upside is already presenting itself and you feel like you know who you’ll have for a decade. Does a team want to take someone like that at 20 or do you take someone like Anfernee Simons who is younger and still more of a raw player? Finally, he did have somewhat of a high turnover rate as it was constantly in the 20% or above range during his time at UCLA. The last game against St. Bonaventure, Holiday notoriously had 10 turnovers in the loss. Can he take care of the ball at the next level?
Draft Stock/Projection: I think Holiday ends up being one of the first guards taken from the group with Brunson/Simons/Carter/Graham/Shamet, making him a top-25 pick in the Draft. He’s someone who can come in and be a change of pace guard off the bench as he’s quick and athletic to go with the shooting and defense. As I mentioned you know what you’re getting with him and his floor isn’t that low despite knowing where his ceiling is. He’s someone who can turn into a starting point guard, but I expect him to be in the rotation pretty early in his career. Having his two brothers in the NBA also helps as he knows what NBA life is like, especially as a rookie. His ability to be both a role player and star at the collegiate level makes him a decent prospect as well because it gives scouts two different versions of him to watch.