Previewing Saturday's Early Slate of Games

We’re going to get right into it, mostly because the slate is absolutely loaded in the early part of the day and I was stuck shoveling this morning, so I’d rather just write about hoops. It’s an awesome early slate leading you right into the NFL Playoffs, which allegedly are going on tonight. As always we’ll break up the games so the blogs aren’t 5,000 words.

Michigan at Michigan State (-9.5) – Noon, FOX

Michigan has been flying under the radar quite a bit leading up to that game against Purdue earlier in the week. That said, this feels like a Michigan State bounceback game after losing at Ohio State and going to overtime with Rutgers. Michigan State should be able to smother Michigan’s wings, where they typically have the advantage and most of Michigan State’s bigs can step out and defend Wagner/Teske shooting jumpers. Michigan State has the best defense inside the 3-point line, which will challenge Michigan at the rim. In order for Michigan to compete here, it really needs something from Duncan Robinson, or, bench him and run guys like Livers/Poole and use their energy to get a boost. I really think Michigan State can take advantage of Michigan’s defense though. We saw Purdue get the ball inside to Haas and then play around the arc. That’s what Michigan State should do. I like the Spartans here.

Purdue at Minnesota (+8.5) – Noon, ESPN2

Look, I’ll be honest. Fuck Minnesota. Fuck a team that willingly let Reggie Lynch on the team with everything going on surrounding him. I feel bad for any of the good guys on the roster, but I’m openly cheering against them. They also flat out stink right now without Lynch and Coffey available. Purdue should be able to lock down Jordan Murphy which means Minnesota has little to beat them with. Purdue should absolutely blow them out.

Wake Forest at Duke (-16.5), Noon, ESPN3

This is a weird spot for Duke. They are coming off kicking Pitt’s ass – not that it’s tough to do – but they are shorthanded in this game. They are likely without Bolden and DeLaurier while Carter suffered an injury in the Pitt game. Duke has absolutely struggled guarding the pick and roll, something that Wake runs arguably more than anyone else in the country. I’m still shocked with how bad Wake has been this year because that backcourt is really good. Wake can attack with Crawford/Woods/Childress/Wilbekin and find some open shots here. Duke is going to win this game, but I’ll take Wake staying within that number. Marvin Bagley is going to put up a massive game too.

TCU at Oklahoma (-6.5), 1:00pm, ESPNU

A weird scheduling quirk gives us TCU/Oklahoma for a second time in just a few weeks. They played right before the new year when Oklahoma won at TCU thanks to Trae Young being well, Trae Young down the stretch. TCU’s defense isn’t that great, something that’s sort of weird to say with Jamie Dixon. But, Oklahoma can absolutely dominate this game and playing at home is such an advantage for them. The question is going to be is if Trae Young’s legs are there after having to play West Virginia and Texas Tech in back to back games. Watch how he starts this game and what sort of lift he has on his jumpers. I think he’ll be fine, but it’s worth noting. TCU gives up a ton of threes, something Oklahoma is pretty good at shooting. I’ll take the Sooners here at home and think the over is worth the play too.

Creighton at Xavier (-3) – 2:00 pm, FOX

When you look at teams that need a bounce back, Xavier is one of the highest on the list. The Musketeers took their annual ass kicking in Philadelphia after losing in Providence – the two places they seem to never be able to get a win. Trevon Bluiett, an All-American, hasn’t looked right but Mack claims his shoulder is healthy. As I talked about with Rob Dauster, good friend of the program, it’s more of a confidence thing with Bluiett. If he misses early shots, he often disappears for some time before trying to insert himself late in games. That can’t happen tonight, especially with a great defender in Khyri Thomas likely guarding him at times. This game is going to be up and down as both teams like to push tempo offensively and then want to make you work defensively. Look for Xavier to run more of the 1-3-1, especially when Kanter is in the game. From the Creighton side keep an eye on how they have Thomas defend both Macura and Bluiett. I like Xavier here heading back home and think Bluiett can get back on track.

West Virginia at Texas Tech (-5.5) – 2:00 pm, ESPN

Easily the game of the day as you have two top-10 teams playing each other and personally I can’t wait to watch both teams play defense. West Virginia obviously runs the press and tries to force turnovers and dare refs to call as many fouls as possible. I love it. Texas Tech on the other hand actually is a better defensive team. They can get out and blitz you if they want due to the athleticism they have or they can sit back in the pack line and dare you to beat them shooting. That’s what I expect them to do against West Virginia while trying to force the ball out of Jevon Carter’s hands. If that’s the case, who steps up for West Virginia? Can Lamont West and James Bolden continue to shoot the ball well? How much does Esa Ahmad play today with his return from suspension? As for Texas Tech, Zach Smith and Justin Gray are both banged up so it’s worth keeping an eye on them. I like West Virginia here to stay within that number. This feels like it’s going to be close the entire time and Texas Tech can get a little sloppy with the ball at times.

Oregon at Arizona (-9) – 2:00 pm, ESPN2

Oregon is coming off a win at Arizona State on Thursday night while Arizona avoided a scare from Oregon State. Again, I’m trusting the letdown/bounce back theory here as it’s incredibly hard to sweep Arizona State and Arizona this year. Oregon has been one of the more disappointing teams this year but they have plenty of talent. You have to assume at some point Dana Altman is able to put them together. As for Arizona, the question remains of what do you do with the Ristic/Ayton lineup. I’m curious to see how they defend Oregon this game with the Ducks having a bunch of all 6’4″-6’7″ dudes while Ayton/Ristic have struggled against those lineups. The most important thing will be Arizona remembering who their best players are and run the offense through Ayton/Trier and not Ristic. That said, I think Arizona has a big game here.

Miami at Clemson (-5) – 3:00 pm, ESPNU

While Clemson has been one the biggest surprises this year, the Tigers are coming off a loss at NC State in which they almost pulled off a ridiculous comeback. That said, Miami has so much talent in the backcourt with Newton/Lykes/Walker/Brown. The one thing Miami can do is defend the hell out of teams, which can bother Clemson. We saw NC State apply pressure and make Clemson uncomfortable with the ball, something I think you see Miami do as they are very disciplined with rotations and help side defense. What Miami needs though is someone to step up on the offensive side of the ball and start shooting the ball well. Lykes is shooting 40% while Vasiljevic is 38%. However, Brown/Walker/Newton are shooting a combined 24%. I like Miami here though. I was high on them coming into the year and think you see them stay within that 5 point number.