Barstool’s Champions League Preview – The “Do you believe in miracles? Yyyyyyy—” Edition
Sam’s Soccer Safe Space For Stoolies
Hi haters,
“Show me the hottest girl in any room, and I’ll show you a guy who is tired of banging her.”
A wise man once said that. He was talking about Arsenal Football Club.
On the one hand, winning trophies > not winning trophies. One the other hand – and this is assuming that Wenger is 100% gone, either soon or at end of the season – careful what you wish for. Arsenal’s transition to the post-Arsene era may be bumpier than most of their fans realize. Perhaps they will come up with the next Antonio Conte. Or maybe they won’t.
The only thing that seems clear at the moment is that Wenger is definitely gone, Lexi seems increasingly likely to go (giggling on bench while down 1-5 was a bad look btw), Ozil might bounce (would anybody stop him at this point?), and Arsenal is going to have a MUCH different look to it next season.
**SpinZone: extra time and rest will help the lads focus on securing 5th place in the league ahead of United.**
Now on to today, which includes an extra-special hidden game that you probably didn’t even know about… but first, cue the babymaking tunes:
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CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
Reminder of the results of games past and schedule of games to come:
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TUESDAY’S PICKS
Barcelona [-325]
PSG [+800]
Draw [+500]
Let’s be clear about what we are talking about here: Barcelona’s simplest shot at advancing to the quarterfinals necessitates them winning today’s games 5-0. Here is the list of clubs that have overcome four-goal deficits in a first leg to move on:
1. nobody
So we are talking about some unprecedented water-into-wine or walking-on-water miracle-level stuff from Messi, Suarez and Neymar today.
Based on a highly scientific straw poll of tweets I’ve gotten on twitter dot com about this game, I am surprised by the number of people who seem to legitimately think Barcelona have a very good chance of making the quarterfinals. I mean, I get it, this is no ordinary team and this is quite possibly the scariest front-line in the history of soccer:
HOWEVER, the first leg in Paris was no fluke. Barcelona is prone to losing games here and there but they rarely if ever appear outclassed, which is exactly what they looked like last month when PSG essentially strangled the life out of them. Both teams come into today’s game healthy, so there’s no big changes there, in fact the biggest switch may be PSG getting Thiago Silva back to lock down the center of defense (note: Presnel Kimpembe was HUGE in the first game but is still wet behind the ears so adding experience to the XI seems a good bet).
So the question is what is so different this time around that will allow Barcelona to turn things around? Was it simply that every single player (aside from arguably Neymar) had an off game and the odds of it happening again are virtually zero? Or perhaps playing at home will be THAT much of a boost?
Sorry, just not buying it. Nobody is convinced that Messi is half-god, half-alien more than me. And nobody believes Suarez is the deadliest striker in the world more than me. But Barcelona have no choice but to go balls to the wall for 90 minutes, which could easily backfire as it is going to leave them open to counterattacks from the likes of Di Maria, Draxler, Matuidi and Rabiot… and let’s be serious, Edinson Cavani can only fuck up so many sitters before he accidentally shins a couple in.
Thus, from a strictly gambling perspective think about it this way: Barcelona may play a perfect game, do the unthinkable and win 5-0 (or 6-1, or 7-2)… but they have to do just that – be absolutely perfect – and even if they manage that you are going to have to lay $325 (or so) just to win $100. At the same time, PSG could go down one or even two then nick a goal out of nowhere and all but kill Barça’s will to fight since now, instead of needing four goals just to push it to extra time, they will need six goals to win (note: PSG can lose 5-1 and advance on away goals). There’s just too many outs for the frogeaters in this puppy, and that’s without even discussing the possibility that their midfield may simply be better than the one led by the amazing-yet-aging Iniesta and Busquets.
So I guess what I’m trying to say is: “DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES? YYYYYYY—”
Nope, not this time. If it’s my money on the table, I’m going with PSG to win by, oh I don’t know, let’s say 3-2.
(SpinZone: if Barça don’t advance my guess is they will definitely end up winning La Liga.)
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Dortmund [-375]
Benfica [+875]
Draw [+500]
Wait, wut? The lines in this game seem like a slap in the face to Benfica. The Portuguese side WON the first leg after all, and are now being given about as much chance in the reverse fixture as a mid-level Championship club would when facing one of the EPL’s Big Seven (s/o to Everton). This isn’t even a full-strength Dortmund team given the absences of Marco Rues, Mario Goetze Nuri Sahin and Sven Bender (among others).
If a line seems too good to be true though, it usually is, and that is indeed probably the case here. I’m not saying Benfica have no shot. They are a damn good squad and anybody in the last 16 of Champions League – Arsenal excluded (obviously) – has a chance to move on if they get some good bounces and/or they finish every half-chance they get and/or their opponent picks up an early red card. This is soccer and sometimes shit happens.
However, anybody who watched the first leg that Benfica pulled out 1-0 will realize that Dortmund was BY FAR the better side, and the scoreline was not in any way reflective of how the game played out. Aubameyang, Dembele and/or (giggity) Pulisic are going to find themselves with 10-15 very good chances in this game. Could they biff all of them, or at least enough of them to keep Benfica in it? Possibly, but that’s not a bet I’m willing to take – even at the ridiculously delicious odds on offer. Dortmund to win 4-1.
Chugga-chugga, chugga-chugga, chugga-chugga… CHOO CHOOOOO
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Extra-Special Hidden EPL Game
City has an FA Cup quarterfinal coming up this weekend so (because they are still involved in UCL and whatnot but are off this midweek) their game against Stoke got rescheduled for today. Hooray! I haven’t decided yet if this or BVB/Benfica will be on TV2 this afternoon. I’ll probably end up doing with my boy Pulisic if he’s in the XI, but wouldn’t be much of a shitty sissy sport blogger if I didn’t give you people a quick and dirty preview to help you wet the beak (some more).
It’s the same old story for City. They have too many holes at the back to compete with Chelsea for this season’s title, but going forward its tough to find a more explosive front-line than Sane, Silva, de Bruyne and Sterling with Aguero up top. So ‘both teams to score’ could be some fun for the whole family, but hard to imagine Stoke having the firepower to go toe to toe with Pep’s pepitos. City to win 3-1 on a brace from Gabriel Jesus’ understudy.
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So there we have it. Easily the briefest soccer blog I’ve ever written all day. Got some extremely awesome NIT Cup action coming up tomorrow. Score!
Nice little trip to tropical Russkiville on Spursday is jusssssssssssssssst what the doctor ordered before a huge FA Cup quarterfinal against Chelsea this weekend! (Silver lining: game is not til Monday – nice!)
Holler,
Samuel Army