Welcome back to the daily DraftKings picks where we try to get super rich playing daily fantasy baseball. As usual I’ll do a brief recap of my lineups from the night before then throw out some picks that I’m brainstorming for tonight, and hopefully get some good feedback/tips/picks from you guys either in the comment section or on Twitter @kmarkobarstool.
I know, I know, everyone is in full football mode right now – but I’m not ready to quit on baseball just yet. We’ve still got about 2 weeks left to make some money and I intend on cashing in on that. Feel like I need to pull together everything I’ve learned from the past few months and build one 200 point lineup to close it out on a high note, that’s my goal.
-Three aces tonight: Price, Archer and Keuchel. My personal favorite is Keuchel – at home against the Angels and coming off a rough start so maybe low-owned. But I do think Price and Archer have the bigger upside – tougher matchups than Keuchel but with massive strikeout potential.
-In the next price slot we’ve got Garcia and Gio Gonzalez. Garcia hasn’t looked sharp in 3 of his last 4 starts (excluding the 34 point gem against the Pirates), and the Reds scare me now that Frazier is heating up. Gio HAS looked very sharp, but I never trust that guy, especially against the Orioles. Not saying they aren’t good plays, just letting you know the deal.
-Did you know Shelby Miller has 21 consecutive losing starts? That’s his player blurb right now and I honestly thought it was a typo. That’s insane. Obviously on a site like DK the win isn’t very important, and he has sneaky upside against a Mets team that may be scuffling with the playoff pressure. But my heart won’t let me pick against the Mets bats tonight.
-The only 3 lower cost guys I’m even considering: Brett Anderson, Jason Hammel and John Lamb. If you can pick the one that gets a solid 18-22 points for you and helps you load up on Coors bats, you’ll have a great shot at cashing tonight. (Let me know if you know which one it will be, thanks).
1B Jose Abreu $5K
wOBA baby, wOBA! Last week was the trial run for me using some expert nerd stat shit, and it paid off 2 out of 3 nights. Tonight Abreu is the top wOBA guy, and that’s just the icing on the cake – I already had my eye on him against Randy Wolf who, I’m not even joking, I thought retired 7 years ago. He’s been hot lately even without taking the pitcher into account, so I’m looking for a home run tonight. I also think it’s a good GPP play because of the high price and the fact people will be all over Morneau and Alvarez in Coors.
3B Nolan Arenado $4.9K
We’re going chalk here because frankly if I didn’t recommend Arenado here I would fire myself. There’s a time to get cute and contrarian, and a time when fading someone is just plain stupid, and we’re in the latter with Arenado tonight. He has the most home runs off right handers in the league and is facing off with AJ Burnett tonight who is still working his way back from injury and hasn’t looked sharp…oh, and did I mention the game is at Coors Field? Ever heard of it? I think they hit home runs there. 4.9K is way too cheap for the upside, and this is one of those plays where even if he goes 1-4 with 5 points I can still sleep well knowing it was the right play. We’ve got 9 other roster spots to mix it up with tourney plays.
VALUE PLAY Tommy Pham $3.4K
Ok had to go cheap here after giving two high priced guys, if you’re going the two-ace route at pitcher you’ll need some value. Here’s a kid I never hear anybody talk about or any of the experts mention, but every time I check his game log he’s coming off a 20 point night. Yes the Cardinals struggle with lefties and I like Lamb as a value pitcher tonight, but why not take a shot on a righty hitting in the 2 spot? Plus you know this is the time of year the Cards start playing their best ball. Little bit of a long shot but I like it tonight.
PS – How about this?
Umm I know Seager has been awesome, but 5.9K awesome? Gotta be a pricing mistake. And you know what, I almost have to play him now. Like he’s basically an auto-play for me. You want to get nuts DraftKings let’s get nuts. You don’t make mistakes on me I make mistakes on you.
But seriously this is something I’ve quietly noticed lately. That when a guy is priced OUTRAGEOUSLY…he actually comes through on it. I’m thinking specifically of Wil Myers the other night – he was the highest priced guy on the board for the Coors game, ahead of Upton, Kemp, Blackmon, Cargo, Arenado etc etc. It was so weird and random that I took him and he promptly hit a home run his first at bat. This is the type of stuff the “experts” and “stat nerds” don’t teach you.
Anyway that’s it for me, hit me up @kmarkobarstool with some actual stats and facts instead of listening to my crazy conspiracy theories.
Also if you’re depositing and want to play, use my referral code and we’ll both get hooked up with a free entry ticket.