We're Set Up For A Nail Biter Survivor Finale Tonight: Winner Predictions And Preview

CBS Photo Archive. Getty Images.

A fantastic season of Survivor wraps up tonight with the Season 46 finale. After a bunch of dud seasons, Survivor has been fully back in full force this spring with exciting episode after exciting episode. I used to look forward to Survivor season finales like they were the Super Bowl and I can confidently say that I have that feeling once again. I felt like a kid waking up Christmas morning today. 

We're down to 5 people left and the winner is still very up in the air. I would say there are 3 people with a legitimate chance to win and I'll break down their chances below. Make sure you subscribe to Snuffing Torches on all platforms because we'll be live right after the full episode ends at 11 to break it all down. 

Okay let's get into the rankings. 

5. Liz - 0% chance

Me, you, and everyone sitting at home watching on their couch has the same chance of winning tonight as Liz does. And that chance is 0.000%. Look, I'm always a little bit hesitant to throw out that 0.0% chance tag ever since Gabler shocked the nation in Season 43 and somehow won. But Liz is no Gabler. I actually don't think she's played an awful game and has been a key part of a lot of votes, but her personality is just not a winner's personality. She's rubbed some people the wrong way and I can't see her giving a very convincing speech to the jury to win. She may not even want the money since she's apparently so rich off her emailing company. And there have been zero signs of a winner's edit. I would imagine that whoever wins the Final Immunity Challenge will choose Liz to sit next to them at the end and force the other two to do fire. 

4. Ben - 1% chance

Early in the season, I thought Ben had major winner potential. He was playing a strong social game and was getting a decent amount of airtime. But then he kind of disappeared and became a way less prominent character. As of a few weeks ago, I thought there was still a chance Ben would end up as an underwhelming under-the-radar winner. But I no longer think that has any real chance of happening. He's been a ghost for some episodes and I forgot he was even on the cast. He hasn't been a leader in any votes and has kind of just been along for the ride for awhile. He is likable and could maybe win with a bitter jury, but I don't think that will be the case. I'll give him a 1% chance, but the ideal path to the finals for everyone else is to be sitting next to Liz and Ben. 

3. Maria - 9% chance

Two or three weeks ago, I would've called Maria the frontrunner. But things have taken a turn for the worst for her. She put a huge target on her back after claiming credit for the Tiff elimination. Then she had the reward challenge snafu where she took forever to decide and then made people play rock, paper, scissors for the last spot. She isolated herself by working so closely with Q. And then on the last vote she tried to take out her closest ally in Charlie but instead was blindsided when Q was voted out. She's now alone on island as the other four remaining players all voted together to get out Q. And she's lost the trust of her closest ally in Charlie after writing his name down. She's also been great in challenges so she would be the obvious next vote if she loses the Final 5 challenge. There's a chance she can save herself somehow. And if she gets to the end, she does have a strong resume. But I think she has rubbed some jurors the wrong way and can only win if she's next to Ben and Liz. She needs a lot to break right for her tonight, which is why I keep her chances low. 

2. Kenzie - 40% chance

Kenzie and Charlie are our two main contenders tonight. Kenzie has had winner potential since the first episode, so it's no surprise that she's still here. She's played a quiet, but very strong game. Her social game is outstanding, as evidenced by her helping Ben out with his panic attacks right after he voted for her. Everyone seems to like her. She hasn't been a huge mastermind on any votes, but she's been on the right side of almost all of them and has played the middle well. She's only had one vote against her all game and it was because Ben had a brain fart. Likable + good gameplay + good edit = major winner potential. I think that Charlie could probably beat her in the end if they deem that Kenzie hasn't played a "big" enough game, so I'll give him the slight edge. But it's extremely close. I believe her or Charlie will be winning tonight. 


1. Charlie - 50% chance

Right now I think this is Charlie's game to lose. He's played a pretty flawless game all season long. He's kept his threat level very low (until recently) while really pulling the strings on every single vote along with Maria (until recently). His social game is also fantastic as everyone's had the mindset of "Awww we love sweet ole Charlie!" It hasn't been the biggest or flashiest game by any means, but he's been on the right side of every vote and has only had two votes against him. He's even won two individual immunity challenges. I'm sure he'll also have a great speech at FTC if he makes it. The only things that can stop him are if everyone wakes up and realizes what a threat to win he is at this next vote, or if he loses the fire challenge. But I really think that everything is set up for a Charlie win, and I'll be rooting for him. He'd a be a satisfying and deserving winner to close out a great season. 

Should be a great finale. Tune in tonight for the Snuffing Torches finale at 11 ET.