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Hungry Dogs Score Points: NFL Week 3 Stats And Trends

Welcome back to the Stats lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters. 

Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday afternoon). 

I am off to an abysmal 3-7 record with these stats so let's hope for our first winning week this time and not the hole get deeper. 

Atlanta Falcons (2-0, 1-1 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (1-1, 1-1 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

DET -3

T 46.5

We're going back to the well with a winning stat from last week. Points just get scored in Detroit. Nine of the Lions last 10 home games have gone over this total of 46.5, with an average of 59 PPG. Plenty of room to breathe. The Falcons defense is underrated but I still think 47 points is very attainable. 

The Stats Say: Over

New England Patriots (0-2, 0-2 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-1, 1-1 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

NE -2.5

T 37

Plain and simple, the Patriots just own the Jets. They’ve won 14 straight games, 9 by double digits. The dominance has continued even after Tom Brady. And to go more league-wide here. Since 2010, 0-2 teams facing 1-1 teams are 33-13 ATS.

The Stats Say: Patriots 

Los Angeles Chargers (0-2, 0-2 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (0-2, 0-1-1 ATS)

1 PM on FOX

MIN -1.5

T 53.5

This is one of my favorite stats that I discovered last year and continues to be very profitable. The over is 28-8-1 in Kirk Cousins last 37 games that start at 1 PM. That's a large and very profitable sample size. And offenses seem to perform in this desperation spot. The over is 12-6 in the last 18 matchups between 0-2 teams. 

The Stats Say: Over

Buffalo Bills (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Washington Commanders (2-0, 1-1 ATS)

1 PM on CBS

BUF -6.5

T 44.5

The Washington Commanders might be kind of good? Good enough to not be getting 6.5 points at home. And history supports them. 2-0 home dogs are 12-3 ATS since 2006, and they're even10-5 SU. They're also a perfect 7-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points. 

The Stats Say: Commanders 

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1, 1-1 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-1, 1-1 ATS)

8:20 PM on NBC

LV -2.5

T 43

This will be the Raiders first home game after traveling the first two weeks. And that doesn't bode well for them. Teams playing their first home game in Week 3 are 17-32 ATS. And if Mike Tomlin is getting points, you probably just want to take them. He covers 65% of the time as an underdog (52-28-3 ATS). 

If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.