24-47-2 (-13.2 units)
It was another subpar day for your boy yesterday. It wasn't a complete disaster concerning units. We only dropped -0.7 units yesterday, but we put together another 1-2 record. I may have gotten too cute with the Mike Moustakas home run prop. It was another example of me falling too much in love with the pitcher versus batter matchups. I did nail the Padres pic. Joe Musgrove was fantastic, and San Diego's offense came alive. I didn't even have to worry about sweating that one out. The Friars won easily. I did have the Yankees on the run line with Gerrit Cole on the mound. Cole was sensational, and he may very well be in line to win his first career Cy Young. But I forgot why the Yankees were on my shit list for a while. They don't fucking score. I think I need to stop betting the Yankees out of principle because I found myself rooting for the Orioles when that game was 0-0 going into the ninth last night. That's not a good thing. The record is going to be bad. I'm still trying to figure out a system that works for me. You can constantly rag on me for having a shitty record, but I will keep acknowledging that you are correct. It's supposed to be fun. With that said, let's take a look at today's picks.
Astros -1.5 (+150) against the Rays
I keep waiting for the Astros to take off, grab this division by the horns and run away with it. Every time they're starting to roll, they'll drop a few games in a row. That's also part of why I like them tonight against Tampa Bay. They always seem to bounce back. Taj Bradley is going for the Rays. He had a few good starts early in the year to begin his rookie campaign, and he may very well be a solid starting pitcher, but the Rays do not win when he's on the mound, at least they have yet to lately. His ERA currently sits at 5.03, and the Rays collectively have lost five consecutive games in which he started. Hunter Brown is going for the Houston Astros. His stuff is electric though he's been inconsistent at points throughout his first official campaign in the bigs. Houston has yet to lose three consecutive home games in well over a month, and they're going up against the ball club that is 6-15 in July. I think Houston comfortably covers the run line here.
Angels ML (+110) against the Blue Jays
I typically don't like betting the Angels to win anything because I don't trust them, but my logic behind picking them in this game has more to do with who is on the mound for the other team. I know Alek Manoah was good in his first start back against Detroit on July 7, but he's still suffering from many of the same issues that plagued him in the first few months of the season. His command still isn't good. He's walked nine batters in 14.1 innings since being recalled. It's well-documented that Manoah has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, but he's been pretty good when he's been away from Rogers Centre. He's 2-3 in eight starts with a 3.92 ERA on the road this season. But at home, he's put up some hilariously bad numbers. In eight starts north of the border this season, he's 0-5 with a 9.00 ERA. Those numbers are too pathetic for me not to bet against him tonight. If the Angels lose this game, they're dead to me.
Ian Happ to homer (+500) against the Cardinals
I know I said earlier that sometimes I fall a little bit too in love with the pitcher versus batter matchup when it comes to home run props, but the data here is too insane to ignore. Adam Wainwright is having a terrible year. It's been sad to watch. He could've easily gone out on a good note last year with Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols but decided to come back for one season, and he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. The last person he wants to face today is Ian Happ. In 36 plate appearances against Wainwright, Happ has 13 hits, and six are home runs. ￼￼￼I'm probably sounding like a basic bitch, but the numbers and the value here are too good to ignore. The Cubs have been hot, and Ian Happ keeps that train rolling. ￼