Welcome back to the Stats Lab for the final time this season. After a perfect 6-0 record in the Wild Card Round, Playoff Tommy will try to keep the hot streak going this weekend. I've poured through the data and statistic to come up with the following plays for the weekend. Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday).
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
4:30 PM on NBC
We're looking at the Chiefs team total of 30.5 points. In Patrick Mahomes' 9 career playoff home games, he’s averaging 35 PPG and has scored less than 31 just twice. And I'm going back to what was the prop of my lifetime in last year’s divisional round. Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards. He averages 19 rushing yards per game in regular season, but 29 rushing yards per game in the playoffs. He has scrambling ability and speed and flashes it more in the postseason. Plus, the Jaguars allowed the 3rd most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
The Stats Say: Chiefs team total over 30.5 and Mahomes over 25.5 rushing yards
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
8:15 PM on FOX
I keep going back to this stat, and it keeps hitting. Daniel Jones is now 17-5 ATS as a road dog in his career. But here's some more stats. Since 2003, #1 seeds are just 13-25-1 ATS in the divisional round. Road teams in playoff division rematches are 14-4-1 ATS. The Giants are 10-1 ATS past 11 as playoff underdogs. The Eagles have lost 4 straight as playoff favorites. This is no Giants fan data folks, this is straight data. The Giants have playoff magic and I truly believe they can win this. But I'll just take the points.
The Stats Say: Giants
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
3:00 PM on CBS
We have a ton of pro-Bengals and more specifically Joe Burrow trends. Burrow is 15-7 ATS as an underdog, covering 7 straight. Burrow is 16-6 ATS against winning teams in his career. And Burrow is 11-2 ATS in his last 13 road games. The Bengals just cover football games and it's more profitable than not to just ride them.
The Stats Say: Bengals
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
6:30 PM on FOX
The 49ers are on an 11 game winning streak. And that might be bad news here. Teams on a 10 game or longer winning streak in the divisional round or later are just 1-13 ATS (6-8 SU) in the last 20 years. Also, Mike McCarthy is 9-3 ATS on the road in his playoff career.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.