Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every week during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (we taped on Monday this week so they could be a bit off but that's what we go by for records purposes). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week.
Last Week: 2-3
New York Jets (7-5, 7-5 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (9-3, 6-5-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
The Jets have been a great bounce back team recently. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games coming off a loss. The Bills haven't been great at covering these big spreads lately. They've covered just 1 of their last 5 games as a favorite of more than 6 points.
The Stats Say: Jets
Philadelphia Eagles (11-1, 7-5 ATS) @ New York Giants (7-4-1, 9-3 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
Since the start of last season, the under in outdoor divisional games has hit 62% of the time (62-38-1). That's a significant amount of data pointing towards the under. And here's some more. The under is 18-7-1 in Daniel Jones’ career at home.
The Stats Say: Under
Baltimore Ravens (8-4, 4-7-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7, 6-5-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
When these two teams match up, it's usually pretty simple. Just take the points. The underdog is 22-7-3 in the last 32 meetings between these two teams. Lamar Jackson is out, but Tyler Huntley is one of the best back ups in the league.
The Stats Say: Ravens
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6, 3-8-1 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (8-4, 7-5 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
Jimmy G is out for the season and that's bad news for Kyle Shanahan. In his last 24 games without Jimmy G as his quarterback, Shanahan is just 9-15 ATS. And he’s only 3-8 ATS as a favorite without him for his career. The Bucs defense can keep this one within the number
The Stats Say: Bucs
Miami Dolphins (8-4, 6-6 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (6-6, 7-5 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
This one could end up being a shootout. Dolphins road overs are 5-1 this season with an average of 59 PPG. The Chargers have gone over in 10 of their last 12 coming off a loss. And the primetime under trend appears to be over with for now. Primetime games have gone over in 8 of the last 12.
The Stats Say: Over
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.