Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. I got off hot but have been cold for awhile now. Need to bounce back with a winning week.
Last Week: 2-1-2
Seattle Seahawks (6-3, 6-3 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5, 2-6-1 ATS)
9:30 AM on NFL Network (Germany)
At a certain point, we just have to accept that the Seattle Seahawks are a really good football team. But they keep getting points. Well, Pete Carroll is now 19-9 ATS in his last 28 as an underdog. And Tom Brady is just 7-13-1 ATS in his last 21 games versus a team with a winning record. Ride the better team.
The Stats Say: Seahawks
Cleveland Browns (3-5, 4-4 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
Tua is very tough to beat at home. He's 10-4 ATS at home in his career. Meanwhile, the Browns have a tough time putting together strong back to back efforts. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings (7-1, 3-4-1 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (6-2, 4-3-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
A lot of attention has been paid to Josh Allen's healthy which has seen this spread go all over the place this week. But I'm just focused on the total. Josh Allen is officially playing and we all know points get scored in Buffalo. But also, the over is 23-7-1 in Kirk Cousins last 31 games that start at 1 PM.
The Stats Say: Over
Dallas Cowboys (6-2, 6-2 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (3-6, 3-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
This is Aaron Rodger’s largest home underdog spread ever, but it's for good reason. We think Andy Reid is the king of the bye week, but it may actually be Mike McCarthy. He's 12-2-1 ATS off a bye in his regular season career. And this is a good spot for Dak Prescott as well. He's 15-8-1 as a road favorite, and 12-4 ATS on extra rest
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Los Angeles Chargers (5-3, 5-3 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-4, 4-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
This game has the potential to be a shootout. Under Brandon Staley, the over is 10-3 with a total of less than 50 points. And in Justin Herbert’s 8 career primetime starts, the games average a total of 55 PPG, with 6 going over 46 points.
The Stats Say: Over
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.