A Rested Tom Brady Is The Best Tom Brady: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 9
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
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Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. I got off hot but have been cold for awhile now. Need to bounce back with a winning week.
Last Week: 3-2
YTD: 22-19
Los Angeles Chargers (4-3, 4-3 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 6-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
LAC -3
T 49
A lot of times people were worry about west coast teams flying east to play in a 1 PM ET game. But that hasn't been a problem for the Chargers recently. In his career, Justin Herbert is 10-4 ATS when playing in the eastern or central time zone. On the other side of things, Marcus Mariota is just 11-21 ATS coming off a win in his career. A stat I gave out a few weeks ago that proved fruitful. I hate picking road favorites but I think the Chargers are just a lot better than the Falcons.
The Stats Say: Chargers
Minnesota Vikings (6-1, 3-4 ATS) @ Washington Commanders (4-4, 4-4 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
MIN -3.5
T 43.5
The Commanders are a new team with Taylor Heinecke at the helm. The man just knows how to cover football games. He's 8-2 ATS in his last 10 starts. And history shows this is a good spot for Ron Rivera as well. He's covered 61% of the time (23-15 ATS) as an underdog on a winning streak. Kirk Cousins does not get his revenge here.
The Stats Say: Commanders
Seattle Seahawks (5-3, 5-3 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-5, 4-4 ATS)
4:05 PM on FOX
ARI -2
T 50
Tale of two coaches here. Kliff Kingsbury is bad at home. He's bad as a favorite. Combine the two and he's just 5-11 ATS as a home favorite in his career. Meanwhile, Pete Carroll is 18-9 ATS in his last 27 games as an underdog. And this is usually a good matchup to just take the points. The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The Cardinals might feel like the smart, contrarian play, but at a certain point we just have to accept the fact that the Seahawks are a really good football team.
The Stats Say: Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams (3-4, 2-5 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5, 2-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
TB -3
T 42.5
The Bucs are a mess right now. They've lost three straight and have forgot how to cover football games. But they have to right the ship eventually. And this could be their chance to do so. They haven't played since last Thursday Night Football, and that extra rest has been huge for Brady as he gets older. He is 10-1 ATS in his last 11 games playing 10 or more days rest.
The Stats Say: Bucs
Tennessee Titans (5-2, 5-2 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -12
T 46.5
Andy Reid off a bye. Andy Reid off a bye. Andy Reid off a bye. It's one of the most well known trends in football. In his career for the regular season, Andy Reid is 20-3 SU and 15-8 ATS. This is a lot of points to lay, but just trust the trends. Patrick Mahomes has also been great in primetime, winning and covering 4 straight SNF games.
The Stats Say: Chiefs
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.