Geno Smith Is Playing MVP Caliber Football Right Now - Week 7 NFL Picks I Can Feel In My Plums.
Another 3-2 showing last week, bringing us to 19-11 so far through 4 weeks. (28-16 in NFL overall including MNF & TNF).
Let's get to this week's plays for Week 7.
Remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook.
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Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys -7 (49)
There's a lot of hesitation to back Dak Prescott in his first game back given his terrible Week 1 performance before getting injured, but Dak has been inhaling game tape, and scouting his ass off during his down time. Against a Lions team that was shut out 29-0 in their last game, and has allowed the league's most, 34 points per game, it's a great spot for Prescott to return with all his weapons in tow.
The Cowboys' defense has allowed an average of 15 points in their three home games.
The Lions were counting on the return of RB D’Andre Swift, but he's inactive again today.
Detroit has yet to win straight-up on the road for coach Dan Campbell, so an outright victory by Dallas seems the play. Lay the points.
The play= Cowboys -7
Lions 23
Cowboys 33
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Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens -6 (46)
The Ravens feel like they've been a disappointment so far this year, but they've had double-digit leads in all three of their losses and have just been unable to close in the fourth quarter. That's on horrible coaching decisions by Harbaugh to leave points off the board on numerous occassions.
They actually dominated the Giants statistically last week, gaining 7.0 yards per play and allowing just 3.8, but a brutal late pick gave the Giants the chance to steal the win.
The Browns looked impressive over the first three weeks but it's fallen apart since, and they're fresh off getting cooked by a third string New England QB after two straight games allowing 200-plus rushing yards.
That defensive effort might mean Lamar Jackson can name his score in this matchup, and I don't trust Jacoby Brissett to be able to keep pace in this one.
The play = Ravens -6
Browns 20
Ravens 30
Seattle Seahawks at LA Chargers -6 (51)
There is HUGE money, 88% of the public, on the over in this game. So be advised.
Granted, the Seahawks' defense is terrible but their offense can keep this game close.
LA ranks 26th in pressure rate, so Geno Smith should have plenty of time, leading to another surprisingly decent game, especially now that Tyler Lockett (hamstring, questionable) suits up as expected.
According to PFF, Seahawks rookie running back Kenneth Walker forced a league-high 12 missed tackles last week in the win over Arizona.
He's facing a Chargers team that ranks 31st in yards per carry allowing (5.6).
That's great news for Seattle as they head to L.A. to play one of the worst rush defenses in the league. A big day for Walker will take pressure off current MVP candidate Geno Smith (can't believe the words MVP and Geno Smith are appearing in the same sentence), and allow the Seahawks to have a big offensive day, either keeping them in the game if their defense reverts to form or getting them the upset win should the Chargers offense continue to stumble.
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Look for Geno, who ranks third in the league with a 108.1 passer rating, to improve to 12-3 ATS in his last 15 starts. (Bonkers I know).
The play = Seattle +6
Seahawks 28
Chargers 27
Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins -7 (44.5)
Pittsburgh shockingly won outright last week at home against Tampa Bay, but it was an ugly performance.
The market still doesn't trust Pittsburgh rookie QB Kenny Pickett, or the Steelers on the road, but I do. It looks like he has settled down from his debut performance a few weeks ago and is much more comfortable.
I think the Steelers have a defense strong enough to hang with the Dolphins. This will not be the same high-octane Miami team we saw before QB Tua Tagovailoa’s injury. We're probably looking at another ugly game here. Take the points.
The play = Steelers +7
Steelers 17
Dolphins 23
Chicago Bears at New England Patriots -7.5 (40.5)
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Bill Belichick will pass George Halas for career wins vs his team. How fitting. And bizarre coincidence.
But in terms of the game, and betting, the Patriots defense has had trouble stopping the run this year, so it is possible the Bears offense can get into a rhythm. But that's dependent on them having a gameplan to pound the ball and actually sticking to it. Even when trailing. Which they won't.
The Patriots' offense has climbed to eighth in the league in yards per play, including third passing the ball, and Bailey Zappe has looked surprisingly solid running the offense. I hope he gets the start but indications look like Mac Jones will take back control in this one.
I expect the Pats to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I don't think this line is going down with the Patriots on a roll. So be smart and buy the hook just in case. (Nothing worse than losing on a hook. Best insurance you can buy).
I'm not as down on the Bears as I was at the beginning of the season, but this is another brutal matchup for them in primetime.
The play = Patriots -7.5
Bears 18
Patriots 31
(Be smart and buy the hook)
Good luck everybody, and remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook!
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