A forgettable 3-2 last week, bringing us to 16-9 so far through 4 weeks. (24-11 in NFL overall including MNF & TNF).
Looking at the board this week one thing stands out, underdogs.
Let's get to this week's plays for Week 6.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 (46)
This game has backdoor cover written all over it for the Steelers.
This line has been rising by the minute, you can get it at 9.5 right now. I had to get my SuperContest plays in on Friday so I only got it at 8 so that's what I'm playing it at to be a man of integrity.
Against Buffalo this Pittsburgh team looked like the worst in the league. But a homefield advantage like the Steelers have, and another game under Kenny Picketts' belt (as bad as it might have been) have me thinking this line is wayyyy exaggerated.
The Steelers injury report is horrendous -Cam Sutton, Ahkello Witherspoon, Levi Wallace, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Pat Freiermuth, and DeMarvin Leal are all OUT.
Brady should feast on Pittsburgh's secondary, missing their top 3 cornerbacks today. He's really only missing Julio Jones on offense.
But Tampa can't close games out, or blow teams out this year. Look at last week against Atlanta. A game they nearly blew and lost outright.
I think they dominate the time of possession in this, get caught snoozing, and let Pittsburgh come in through the backdoor late in the 4th to cover.
The play = Steelers +9.5
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints +3 (43)
I originally liked the Bengals to win this one outright but once I saw Eddie picked them… just kidding.
The Saints' defense is pretty dog shit so far this season, and has only one interception this season. They also have the NFL's worst turnover ratio (-8). But Joe Burrow and co. have been extremely unimpressive so far. Super Bowl hangover of all Super Bowl hangovers.
But they are good on the road. Cincy’s recent against-the-spread road record is 6-1. (There I go again talking myself into the Bengals.)
The Bengals have left tackle Jonah Williams dealing with a dislocated kneecap and both tight end Hayden Hurst and wideout Tee Higgins are questionable, with the latter being a game-time decision.
Andy Dalton is 2-0 against his former team since leaving them, and has looked decent this season in the dome. Yes, he'll be missing who top receiver Michael Thomas and veteran Jarvis Landry, with breakout rookie Chris Olave questionable, but this is the NFL and crazier shit has happened.
Dalton came up with some clutch plays against Seattle last week, even though he only threw for 187 yards.
TE/QB Taysom Hill was the star in the win over the Seahawks, rushing for 112 yards as the wildcat quarterback.
Running back Alvin Kamara racked up a team-high 91 receiving yards.
The Saints had their highest point total since scoring 52 points against Minnesota on Christmas Day in 2020.
I think they go back to what worked last week, focus on NOT giving the ball away and shooting themselves in the foot, and keep this one close.
There is something stupid like 88% of the public on the Bengals in this one, which makes me like the Saints play even more.
The play = Saints +3
NY Jets at Green Bay Packers -7 (45.5)
This looks like the obvious bounce back game for Green Bay here, returning home from London after their upset loss to the Giants, but I like the Jets to be very feisty in this one.
They've won three of four, Zach Wilson is showing legit improvement. Playmakers such as Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall have given New York an added dimension, and the secondary is impressive too. The Packers passing game will be up against an aggressive Jets secondary, who ranks among the best in INTs and PBUs.
I think Green Bay will win, but the Jets will cover, to improve to 3-0 ATS on the road this season and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
The Play = Jets +7
Baltimore Ravens at NY Giants +5.5 (45.5)
Everyone outside of Giants fans think they've lucked their way to 4-1. Which is possible. But being 5 and a half dogs at home is a mistake here.
The Giants coaching staff is no joke. Hard to believe I know.
They put their guys in a position to succeed each week which honestly, at the end of the day, isn't that all you ask for out of your coaches?
This is Wink Martindale's day to shine as he'll be defensive scheming against his former team. And I think he will.
Daniel Jones looks like he's finally at home and in sync with Daboll's offensive scheme and Saquon is doing all the things we've expected him to now that he's actually healthy.
I like NY here to cover and won't be the least bit surprised if they win outright.
The play = Giants +5.5
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 (42)
The test we've all been waiting for from this Philly team.
Dallas' team speed on defense can be negated by Philadelphia's RPO offense and QB Jalen Hurt’s legs. Whether it's Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott under center for the Cowboys.
The Cowboys' success can be tied to the strength of both their defense and run game, along with Rush's very efficient play in the passing game.
However, against Philadelphia, Rush will have to provide more from the pocket than he has been asked to do. With the way the Eagles' offense puts pressure on opponents to score, Dallas could be in for a challenge if its run game isn't working as it has been.
Ezekiel Elliot will have to show his face today and answer the bell. He's been a non-factor most of this season so far.
I think he does, and I think Dallas' defense, (helmed by Dan Quinn, who has saved Mike McCarthy's ass by the way), rises to the occasion today.
I think Dallas keeps it close but comes up just short.
The play = Cowboys +6.5
LET THE BOY WATCH!
Good luck everybody, and remember to bet responsibly on the Barstool Sportsbook!