Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week. Back to back 4-1 weeks, let's keep it rolling.
Last Week: 4-1
Minnesota Vikings (2-1, 1-2 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
9:30 AM in London on NFL Network
Offense simply doesn’t travel over to London. The under is 8-4 in the last 12 games across the pond. And right now, the Saints are an under team. The under has hit in 8 of their last 10 games with an average of just 35 total points in those games. Jameis and the offense look lost right now, but they can still play defense. And on the other side, Kirk Cousins is always liable to lay a dud at any moment.
The Stats Say: Under
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Philadelphia Eagles (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
You might be surprised to see a team coming off a 28 point victory be almost a touchdown underdog. And you might think, "Hmmm, I should probably take that team." Well, that's exactly how they want you to think. But the data says otherwise. Teams who are at least 6 point dogs coming off a 28 plus point win, like the Jags, have lost 11 straight games and are just 3-8 ATS in that spot. The Eagles are scary good, as much as that pains me to admit. Lay the points.
The Stats Say: Eagles
Buffalo Bills (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
I have stats for both a side and a total here. First for the side, the Ravens are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog. They are 7-1 in their last 8 as a home underdog. And the stats say there will be points, points, and more points in this game. The over is 9-3 in Lamar Jackson’s last 12 home games, with the Ravens averaging 30 PPG. And since the start of last season, when the Bills score less than 20 points in a game (like last week), they bounce back with an average of 35 points in their next game.
The Stats Say: Ravens and over
Denver Broncos (2-1, 1-2 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (0-3, 0-3 ATS)
4:25 pm on CBS
Since 2004, 0-3 teams that made the playoffs in the previous season are 14-4-1 ATS in Week 4. The Raiders fit that description. Derek Carr has also fared well in home divisional games, going 10-4 ATS in his last 14 matchups. Hungry dogs run faster and the Raiders are STARVING.
The Stats Say: Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1, 1-2 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
We're getting Tom Brady off a loss. The Bucs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss. AND we're getting Tom Brady as an underdog. Since 2003, Brady is 23-9-2 ATS as an underdog. And he's 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog where the game total is 45 or less. And when we combine the two? Tom Brady is 15-1 ATS as an underdog off a loss. You have to go back over two decades to find the last time he didn't cover in that spot.
The Stats Say: Bucs
Tommy Stats Parlay Of The Week
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.