Stats and Trends For The NFL Divisional Round
Welcome to the season finale of The Stats Lab. With this being our last full Advisors episode of the year, this will also be my last stats blog. I finished an ugly 2-4 last week with the stats, bringing my record to 43-46 for the season. I have five picks this week. I must sweep them to finish above .500. 4-1 to finish at .500. Can I do it? Probably not. But I'll give it a shot anyway. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Advisors taping on Wednesday).
4. Cincinnati Bengals (11-7, 11-7 ATS) @ 1. Tennessee Titans (12-5, 10-7 ATS)
4:30 PM on CBS
TEN -3.5
T 47
A ton of signs point to this being a high scoring affair. First of all, Derrick Henry is expected to make his return. When Ryan Tannehill and Henry play together at home, the over is 11-5-1 with an average of 58 PPG. That's well above this total of 47. On the Bengals side of things, we know that Joey Burrow and company can put up points. And their defense is susceptible. Cincinnati's defense has allowed 29 PPG to top 15 scoring offenses this season. I think both teams can put up at least 24 points.
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The Stats Say: Over
6. San Francisco 49ers (11-7, 10-8 ATS) @ 1. Green Bay Packers (13-4, 12-5 ATS)
8:15 PM on FOX
GB -6
T 47.5
A couple of strong trends for the 49ers here. One is league wide and one is team specific. For the more general one, underdogs are 23-12-1 ATS against the number 1 seed in the divisional round. And to be a little more San Fran centric here, Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo together are 10-3 ATS as road dogs.
The Stats Say: 49ers
3. Los Angeles Rams (13-5, 9-9 ATS) @ 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-4, 10-8 ATS)
3:00 PM on NBC
TB -3
T 48.5
These two teams faced off earlier this season and the Rams won 34-24. That's good news for the Bucs. Since 2016, Tom Brady is a perfect 6-0 both SU and ATS when facing a team in the playoffs that he already faced in the regular season. And the divisional round is always Brady's best. In his career, he's 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS during divisional weekend.
The Stats Say: Bucs
3. Buffalo Bills (12-6, 10-6-2 ATS) @ 2. Kansas City Chiefs (13-5, 9-9 ATS)
6:30 PM on CBS
KC -2
T 55
This is subjective, but I think the Bills are the clear better team here. I love them so much that I almost want to take the Chiefs. But the objective stats back up the Bills too. The Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS this year facing teams who finished with 10 or more wins. And this is usually a good spot to back Josh Allen. In his career, he's 10-5-2 ATS as a road dog. And lastly, this is my favorite play of the entire weekend. Patrick Mahomes rushing yards over 24.5. Quarterbacks run more in the postseason. There's more on the line and they take more risks. Mahomes is a great example of this. In the regular season, Mahomes averages 18.9 rushing yards per game throughout his career. In his last 7 playoffs games, he's averaged 31 per game. The Bills are a team that quarterbacks can run on too. Quarterbacks have hit the over on their rushing yards prop in 5 straight games against the Bills. Mahomes himself had 61 rushing yards against them earlier this season. This is the biggest game of the Chiefs season and Mahomes will leave it all on the line.
The Stats Say: Bills and Mahomes over rushing yards
Thanks to everyone who followed along with these blogs this season and watched Advisors. There's not a show in the world that's more fun to make. Catch the season finale here to get all your winner's before kickoff.