Stats And Trends For NFL Wild Card Weekend
Welcome to the first ever playoff edition of The Stats Lab. I dug deep this week to try and find people winners this weekend, and I'm feeling good about these picks. Below is my entire cheat sheet I used for Advisors this week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday afternoon). The stats were 2-3 last week, brining my season long record to 41-42. Let's get back above .500 this week.
5. Las Vegas Raiders (10-7, 8-9 ATS) @ 4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7, 10-7 ATS)
4:35 PM Saturday on NBC
CIN -5.5
T 48.5
The Raiders have momentum on their side. Since 2008, the winner of the final week Sunday Night Football game is 9-3 ATS and 8-4 SU in their first playoff game. There's also murmurs that the Raiders just might be a team of destiny. I do think the Bengals are overrated. Joe Burrow is awesome, but their offensive line and defense are very questionable. I think the Raiders keep it close and maybe even win.
The Stats Say: Raiders
6. New England Patriots (10-7, 10-7 ATS) @ 3. Buffalo Bills (11-6, 9-6-2 ATS)
8:15 PM Saturday on CBS
BUF -4.5
T 44
These two teams are very familiar with each other which should lead to a close game. Since 2003, road underdogs in the playoffs against a divisional opponent are 13-6 ATS. And in this specific matchup, the road team is 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings. All signs point to this one being a close game so just take the points.
The Stats Say: Patriots
7. Philadelphia Eagles (9-8, 8-8-1 ATS) @ 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4, 9-8 ATS)
1 PM Sunday on FOX
TB -8.5
T 45.5
I did compile these stats before I knew the weather might be an issue in Tampa, but the play here is still the Bucs team total over 27.5 points. Over the last 10 seasons, Brady averages 35 points in his first playoff game. The Bucs average 33 PPG at home this season. And the Eagles defense this year in 5 games against top 10 scoring offenses have allowed 37 PPG. All signs point to the Bucs putting up points on Sunday.
The Stats Say: Bucs team total over 27.5
6. San Francisco 49ers (10-7, 9-8 ATS) @ 3. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, 13-4 ATS)
4:40 PM Sunday on CBS
DAL -3
T 51
The under here is probably my favorite play of the weekend. The 49ers are going to run the ball a ton and try to slow the game down. Both these defenses are solid, especially the Cowboys. I was shocked how high this total is. And for some trends: the under is 46-28 in the Wild Card Round since 2003. The under is 5-1 in the 49ers last 6 playoff games. The under is 8-3 in the Cowboys last 11 games overall.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1, 8-9 ATS) @ 2. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5, 8-9 ATS)
8:15 PM Sunday on NBC
KC -12.5
T 46
I'll be honest I did just try to find pro-Steelers stats for Jerry's sake. And here's what I got. Big Ben is 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog in the playoffs. And the Steelers are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog. As much shit as they've gotten lately, they have found ways to cover as the dog. The Chiefs almost seem to easy. I think the Steelers can keep it within 10 points.
5. Arizona Cardinals (11-6, 10-7 ATS) @ 4. Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 8-9 ATS)
8:15 PM Monday on ESPN
LAR -4
T 49.5
The stat I said above about the Bills and Pats applies here too. It's been 6 straight times that a road underdog has covered in the Wild Card round against a divisional opponent. And it's usually a good idea to bet on the Cardinals as a road dog. Kliff Kingsbury is 13-3-2 ATS as a road dog in this spot.
The Stats Say: Cardinals
If you want to parlay some of those stats together, you can do this weekend on the Barstool Sportsbook with an awesome promo. Opt in and bet $10 on a 6 leg parlay using 1 ATS bet from each game. If you win, you'll get an extra $1,000 in Sportsbook bonus cash. And the best is it's for new AND existing users.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.