Taysom Hill Is An Under Machine: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 18
It's been awhile, but welcome back to the Stats Lab. Our first edition of 2022. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Advisors shooting on Tuesday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record. It's been awhile but the last blog I had on this was Week 14 where I went 3-2 to bring my season long record to an even 39-39. Big week this week. I want to finish strong. Let's get into it.
New England Patriots (10-6, 10-6 ATS) @ Miami Dolphins (8-8, 8-7-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
NE -6.5
T 39.5
Even though they typically have things wrapped up, the Pats still finish the season strong. Bill Belichick is 13-5 ATS in his last 18 regular season finales. The Pats don't have a ton to play for and will almost certainly end up the 5 seed barring some major upsets. But I don't think they'll be resting guys and have a lot more to play for than Miami. Also when the Pats get rolling, they get rolling. They're coming off a 40 point win and are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a win of more than 14 points.
Playoff implications: Patriots clinch the AFC East title with a win plus a Bills loss/tie, or a tie plus a Bills loss. Dolphins are eliminated.
The Stats Say: Patriots
New Orleans Saints (8-8, 8-8) @ Atlanta Falcons (7-9, 6-9-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
NO -4.5
T 39.5
If Taysom Hill is starting, take the under. It's that simple. The Saints have a strong defense. The Falcons offense is the worst redzone offense maybe in the history of football. And Taysom Hill sucks. Overrated ball hog. Similar to a diner, he's a jack of all trades but a master of none. The under is 7-1 in Taysom Hill’s 8 starts and those games average a total of just 30 PPG. The under has hit in 7 of 8 Falcons games. And the under has hit in 9 of their last 12 matchups in Atlanta.
Playoff implications: Saints clinch playoff spot with win and 49ers loss. Falcons are eliminated
The Stats Say: Under
Seattle Seahawks (6-10, 8-8 ATS) @ Arizona Cardinals (11-5, 10-6 ATS)
4:25 on FOX
ARI -6.5
T 48
The Seahawks are coming off a win over the Lions where they put up 51 points, but the Cardinals are not the Lions. And Seattle has really struggled to string together multiple wins a row. They are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win. The Cardinals have also had a big upper hand in this matchup recently. They're 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Playoff implications: Cardinals clinch NFC West with win and a Rams loss. Seahawks are eliminated.
The Stats Say: Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers (9-7, 8-8 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (12-4, 8-8 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
LAR -5.5
T 44.5
The 49ers have owned this matchup recently. They've beat the Rams in 5 straight games. They're also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a road dog. AND they've covered 6 straight January games. This is basically a playoff game for the 49ers. Getting 5.5 points almost seems too easy that it makes me nervous. But just take it and don't ask questions.
Playoff implications: Rams clinch NFC West with win or Cardinals loss. 49ers clinch playoff spot with win/tie or Saints loss/tie
The Stats Say: 49ers
Los Angeles Chargers (9-7, 8-8 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (9-7, 7-9 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
LAC -3
T 48.5
So in case you're living under a rock, let me remind you that this has the potential to be the most must-watch game of all time. If the Colts lose to the Jaguars, both these teams would get in with a tie. So Sunday Night Football could be both these teams kneeling for 60 minutes if the coaches came to a handshake agreement. Which would be AWESOME. If that's the case, this is the easiest under of all time. But if not, I like the Raiders here. Derek Carr is sneaky kind of a good big game QB. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 primetime games. And the underdog has covered 18 of the last 25 matchups between these two teams. Also, the Raiders just feel like a team of destiny after all they've been through this year.
Playoff implications: If Colts win, winner clinches playoff spot. If Colts lose, both teams get in with a tie.
The Stats Say: Raiders
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.