Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Advisors shooting on Wednesday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record. The stats had a huge bounce back last week that was much needed. Went 4-1 to bring my season long record to 36-37. Let's try to climb back above .500 this week.
Baltimore Ravens (8-4, 5-7 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (6-6, 5-7 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
These are two offenses really struggling right now. We saw a low scoring affair when these two teams met a couple weeks ago (16-10 Ravens) and I expect more of the same this time. The under has hit in 5 straight road games for the Ravens (with the game total being just 33 PPG). And the under has hit in 4 of the last 5 home games for the Browns (32 PPG total). And even more reason to like the under: Since 2003, the under in inner AFC North December games is 37-23-3.
The Stats Say: Under
Dallas Cowboys (8-4, 9-3 ATS) @ Washington Football Team (6-6, 5-7 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
A couple of reasons to like the Cowboys here and they both revolve around Dak Prescott. In his career with extra rest (more than 7 days), Dak is 11-2 ATS and the Cowboys put up 30 PPG. He also has been great in the division. He's 19-8 ATS vs. the NFC East.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
San Francisco 49ers (6-6, 5-7 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5, 6-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
Joe Burrow is a great bet off a loss or bad game. He bounces back with the best of them. He's 8-2 ATS off a loss in young career. They had an ugly loss to the Chargers last week and Burrow threw two interceptions. Which is good news. Because the three other times he's thrown multiple picks in a game, he's followed them up with wins of 14, 23, and 19 points. Bounce back Burrow.
The Stats Say: Bengals
Buffalo Bills (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3, 6-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
Bucs offense isn't getting enough credit here. Their team total is just 27.5 as of the time I compiled this. They're averaging 38 PPG in home games this season. And from December on last year, their offense really picked it up and averaged 37 PPG. The Bills defense is solid but they're coming off a short week and a physical pounding from the Pats. I think Brady can put up 28+ on them.
The Stats Say: Bucs team total over
Chicago Bears (4-8, 4-8 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3, 10-2 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
Pick a Packers stat, any Packers stat. Rodgers at home is 67-36-4 ATS in his career. Rodgers is 20-7 ATS versus the Bears. Rodgers is 24-12 ATS in divisional home games. Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS off a bye. Matt LaFleur is 5-0 ATS versus Matt Nagy. Look the Bears might cover. But there's absolutely zero reason to pick them here. Betting against Aaron Rodgers is never fun. Don't start now.
The Stats Say: Packers
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.