Welcome to a special Thanksgiving edition of the Stats Lab. We have 3 games of football to watch today as we stuff our faces, and one way to making watching them even better is to gamble on them responsibly over at the Barstool Sportsbook. Below are some stats and trends I complied for our special Thanksgiving episode of Advisors. I'll shoot you guys straight, the stats have been bad recently. I was 1-5 last week and 1-4 the week before, bringing my season long record to 30-32. It's time to get back on the right track. I dug deep to find some winners today. Let's get into the data.
Lines are courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, and are subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday)
Chicago Bears (3-7, 4-6 ATS) @ Detroit Lions (0-8-1, 6-4 ATS)
12:30 PM on FOX
Some teams bounce back after a loss. The Bears are not one of those teams. They are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a loss. And they’re also just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite. It's never easy to bet on the Lions, but if you're going to do it, Thanksgiving ain't a bad option. They’ve covered 6 of their last 9 on Turkey day. Honestly, I just always love the Lions Thanksgiving game for some reason. So many memories of Matt Stafford to Calvin Johnson and just enjoying watching some football while eating food with the family. And I just can't stomach betting against them in this game. The Bears are falling apart though under Matt Nagy, and it's never bad to bet on a home team underdog, so some logic does go into this pick.
The Stats Say: Lions
Las Vegas Raiders (5-5, 4-6 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (7-3, 8-2 ATS)
4:30 PM on CBS
Points could be hard to come by in this game. In general, Thursday games have been low scoring this year. The under has hit in 8 of the last 9 Thursday games this season, with an average of just 42 PPG. But there's even more reason to like it in this one. The Raiders have scored just 43 total points in their last 3 games since losing Henry Ruggs. And the Cowboys have gone under in 4 straight games. And this week, they’ll be without Amari Cooper. CeeDee Lamb was questionable but seems likely to play now. Still though, this under is probably my favorite play of the day.
The Stats Say: Under
Buffalo Bills (6-4, 5-4-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (5-5, 5-5 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
Sometimes you come across a stat that's a true eye popper. This is one of them. In his last 14 games as an underdog of more than 3 points, Sean Payton is 13-1 ATS. Now Trevor Siemian does absolutely fucking suck, but the Saints still have some talent. Sean Payton is a great coach. They're home. And the Bills are maybe not as good as everyone thought? Plus some more reasons to like the Saints: 8-2 in their last 10 as a home dog. They've covered 6 straight following an ATS loss.
The Stats Say: Saints
Tommy's Teaser Of The Day: I'm terrible at these, but I do like the Cowboys -0.5 and Saints +12.5 at -120 on the Barstool Sportsbook.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.