It's Easy To Score In Sin City: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 11
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record. The stats were brutal last week, going just 1-4. My season long record is now 29-27 so at least we're still above .500. Now some would argue that I am actually 56-0 because every stat is correct at the time I give it. I give out facts, not picks. But that's just what some are saying. Onto Week 11…
Indianapolis Colts (5-5, 6-4 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BUF -7
T 50
The “hungry dog runs faster” motto has been a huge money making trend across the league this year. It's this simple. If you just bet on a team that didn’t cover the previous week against a team that did cover the previous week, you’d be 41-17-1 ATS. The Colts didn’t cover last week. The Bills did. Also worth nothing that Frank Reich is 15-7 ATS versus winning teams, 10-3 ATS on the road.
The Stats Say: Colts
Green Bay Packers (8-2, 9-1 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 5-4 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
GB -2.5
T 49
There are a lot of reasons to like the under here. The Packers have gone under in 7 straight games. The under has hit in every Vikings home game this year. The last 7 times these two teams have met in Minnesota, the under has hit 6 times. And these two teams have played a combined 19 games this season. The total has gone over 49 points just 6 times.
The Stats Say: Under
Cincinnati Bengals (5-4, 4-5 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
CIN -1
T 49.5
On the other side of things, all signs point to the over in this one. The over is 11-0-1 in the Raiders last 12 games as a home underdog. It's 8-1 in their last 9 home games of any kind. And 11 of the Raiders last 13 home games have had 50 or more points. The overs have consistently hit in Vegas, standing at 14-6-1 at Allegiant Stadium. Both these offenses are good and the defenses are not so good. I expect a shootout.
The Stats Say: Over
Dallas Cowboys (7-2, 8-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (6-4, 3-7 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
KC -2.5
T 56.5
A lot of people think the Chiefs are back after their SNF win last week, but there's still a lot of data to suggest it's a smart play to bet against them. For example, the last time the Chiefs covered a home game against a team with a winning record was October 5, 2020. And that team was the 2-1 New England Patriots with Brian Hoyer as their quarterback. Prior to that, it was December 1, 2019. They also have not covered back to back games since November 1, 2020. And it's never a bad idea to take Dak when he's getting points. He's 10-3 ATS in his last 13 as an underdog.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1, 3-6 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-4, 5-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
LAC -6
T 46.5
I've given this stat out three times this season and it has hit every single time. So let's go back to the well. The Steelers under is now 42-13-1 in their last 56 road games. That is an insane trend that you just can't ignore. The under is also 6-2 in the Chargers last 8 home games. Another strong Steelers trend is that Pittsburgh is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 SNF games.
The Stats Say: Chargers and under
Tommy's Teaser Of The Week Fuck the teaser this week. I have one play that I'm all over.
It's D'Onta Foreman day.
Let me set the stage for you guys here. I have had 3 player epiphanies in the past.
-First was DeMarco Murray on October 23, 2011 against the St. Louis Rams. I watched him the week before against the Patriots and liked what I saw from him after Felix Jones got hurt. I picked him up in fantasy and started him which was a pretty bold move at the time. He broke off a 91 yard touchdown run early and finished with 253 yards.
-Next was Jonas Gray the night he had 4 touchdowns against the Colts on SNF in 2014. I played him in quite a few daily fantasy lineups and he rewarded me handsomely.
-The other one was Melvin Gordon last year in a random game I don't remember because he did not live up to my epiphany. But still 2 out of 3 ain't bad. You don't have to believe me but this is the truth.
And I now have this same feeling about D'Onta Foreman. I watched him get some touches last week against the Saints and liked what I saw from him. I put in a waiver fantasy claim for him Tuesday and literally had a dream that night that he scored a touchdown Sunday and had a big game. I thankfully got him. His competition for touches is Adrian Peterson. Jeremy McNichols is out. And AP is washed up and a shell of his former self. Foreman is younger, better, and more of a receiving threat. The Titans are double digit favorites at home against the Texans, the 31st rank run defense. They should be running the ball a lot, and Foreman should be the main ball carrier. It's supposed to rain in Tennessee today which means they may even be more reliant on the run game. The Titans have a good offense and can move the ball through the air. Foreman should definitely have red zone opportunities. I think he scores at least one touchdown and maybe more. It also helps that the Texans are his former team who cut him in 2019 while he was recovering from an Achillies injury.
Talent + opportunity + matchup + game flow + revenge game + my epiphany = D'ONTA FOREMAN MONSTER GAME
I usually bet like $50 a game. I put $175 on him to score a touchdown because I'm putting my money where my mouth is.
Also just for the record because I want this documented, I think the Jaguars are a great bet at +6.5 today and I think they may beat the 49ers outright.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.