Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record. Last week the stats went 3-2, but I went 2-3. The stats said to pick the Cardinals but I ignored them since Kyler Murray was out and picked the 49ers. Last time I ever ignore the stats. For the purpose of my season long record, I will count it as a win since the stats were correct and that's what this is all about. Also because it makes my record look better (3-2 last week, 28-23 YTD).
Atlanta Falcons (4-4, 4-4 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-2, 7-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
Don't look now, but the Falcons might be kind of good? Or at least not bad? With their win in New Orleans last week, they're now 4-4 and Matt Ryan looks like vintage Matty Ice. They're a frisky bunch, especially on the road where they've covered 11 of their last 16 games. And in his career, Matt Ryan usually plays up to his competition. He’s covered 60% of his career games as an underdog against a team with a winning record (31-21 ATS). A lot of people might be expecting a Cowboys bounce back, but history doesn't show that's the case. Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. And they're 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS loss. Expect the Falcons to keep it close enough.
The Stats Say: Falcons
New Orleans Saints (5-3, 4-4 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (7-2, 7-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
It's time to put some god damn respect on Ryan Tannehill's name. Derrick Henry or not, this offense just scores points. In Tannehill’s 35 starts with the Titans, they've averaged 30 PPG. Even without Henry, they've averaged 28 PPG (only two games though). And they’ve scored 24 or more points in 27 of Tannehill's 35 games. Why do I pick that number? Because their team total this week is only 23.5 points. The Saints have given up 27 points in back to back weeks. I'm not as confident that the Titans will cover (the Saints are 11-2 SU and ATS in their last 13 as an underdog), but I do think they can score 24 points.
The Stats Say: Titans team total over 23.5
Cleveland Browns (5-4, 5-4 ATS) @ New England Patriots (5-4, 5-4 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
Both these offenses are not getting enough credit. The Pats have turned a corner and are averaging 32 PPG over their last 5 games. The Browns, meanwhile, are averaging 32 PPG in road games this season and 34 PPG without Odell this season (who is now in LA). This game might have sneaky shootout potential and the total is only 45. Give us the over.
The Stats Say: Over
Seattle Seahawks (3-5, 5-3 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (7-2, 8-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
Aaron Rodgers is maybe back? But it doesn't matter. If you are getting points with Russell Wilson, take those points. He is 24-11-2 ATS as an underdog in his career. And as a road dog he's even better: 18-8-2 ATS.
The Stats Say: Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4, 2-7 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
Derek Carr is an under the radar primetime stud. He’s 12-6-2 ATS in primetime games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 primetime games. And I say this every week, but it bears repeating. The Chiefs just do not cover football games. They're now 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games. Also another reason to like the Raiders. Carr is 10-5 ATS in his last 15 as a home dog.
The Stats Say: Raiders
Tommy's Teaser Of The Week: I am doing nothing but sticking to the stats this week. We are ignoring my awful 2-7 record. Let's try a bomb to make some of this back. Falcons +15, Titans over 23.5 points, Browns/Pats over 39, Seahawks +10, and Raiders +9. Can be had at +557 on the Barstool Sportsbook. Let's ride. BET IT HERE
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.