The Battle Of Ohio Should Be A Shootout: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 9
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (5-0 last week, 25-21 YTD).
Shoutout to this guy who parlayed my stats together and won $13,000 on the Barstool Sportsbook. I can't believe I didn't do it myself.
Cleveland Browns (4-4, 4-4 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
There are a lot of reasons to believe this game could turn into a shootout. The Bengals offense has been solid all year, averaging 28 PPG. The Browns have averaged 28 PPG in their road games this season and have shown they are very capable of getting into a shootout (47-42 loss against the Chargers). And their two matchups last year were offense explosions. The Browns won both, 35-30 and then 37-34. That's 136 total points or 68 PPG. The over is 6-0-1 overall in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 47 is a pretty low number all things considered.
The Stats Say: Over
Minnesota Vikings (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (5-2, 3-4 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
There's a lot of reasons to like the Ravens here. Jon Harbaugh is 9-4 ATS off a bye. And he's 15-9 ATS following a loss of more than a TD. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson feasts at home against bad teams. When he's at home facing a losing team, Jackson is 9-1 SU with an average winning margin of 15 points.
The Stats Say: Ravens
Green Bay Packers (7-1, 7-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-4, 2-6 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
The stats I originally had for the show were compiled before the Rodgers news. And basically it was just that the Packers are really good at covering and the Chiefs are really bad. Since the start of 2020, the Packers are NFL best 17-7 ATS. The Chiefs are 9-15 ATS, second worst in the NFL. Kansas City is also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win. Now, Rodgers being out obviously throws a wrench into all this. We have no idea what to expect with Love. But at the end of the day, the public has consistently overvalued the Chiefs for 2 years now. It's not a bad idea to just keep betting against them.
The Stats Say: Packers
Arizona Cardinals (7-1, 6-2 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-4, 2-5 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
This is another question mark with Kyler Murray's status in jeopardy. As of now, he's a game time decision. That makes getting a stat for this game pretty tough. It is worth noting that it's usually smart to fade the 49ers at home though. In their last 10 home games, the 49ers are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS. That's the stat I gave on the show, but I'm ignoring the stats here because I don't think Murray plays and am officially giving San Francisco as the play.
The Stats I Say: 49ers
Tennessee Titans (6-2, 6-2 ATS) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-1, 4-4 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
I gave this last week and it hit. Let's go back to the well. Titans road overs are now 14-2 in the last 16. And sure there's no Derrick Henry, but that shouldn't hurt the over too much. The Titans will probably throw more, play faster, and make more mistakes which could lead to an overall high scoring game. In the game they played without him in 2019, they lost 38-28. I could see something like that here. Rams overs 5-2-1 this season. And if you're looking for a side, the Rams are 11-2 ATS in primetime games since start of 2019, but I'm just sticking to the over.
The Stats Say: Over
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (2-6 YTD): Almost impossible how bad I've been with this. I'm sticking to the stats here and trying for a 3 leg teaser to make back some losses. Let's go with Rams -0.5, Ravens -0.5, and over 40.5 in the Battle of Ohio. I actually love this one to finally win.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.