Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Friday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (4-2 last week, 20-21 YTD)
Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3, 2-4 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (4-3, 4-3 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
I will stop giving this stat when it stops being a winner. The under is now 41-13-1 in the Steelers last 55 road games. It's 2-0 this season. And while this number does seem low, Steelers road games are averaging just 39.5 PPG since the start of 2019. And they've gone under the 42.5 number in 11 of 18 games. Also if you're wondering about the Steelers coming off a bye, Mike Tomlin is 6-8 ATS off a bye in his career so not much to work with there.
The Stats Say: Under
Tennessee Titans (5-2, 5-2 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-4, 5-2 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
When the Titans go on the road, they usually win, and the total usually goes over. The Titans are 13-4 SU in their last 17 road games. And they're 8-1 SU in their last 9 divisional games. Meanwhile, the over is 13-2 in the Titans last 15 road games. AND the over is 8-0 in the Colts last 8 games when facing a team with a winning record. I'm just sticking with the over here.
The Stats Say: Over
New England Patriots (3-4, 3-4 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (4-2, 4-2 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
The Chargers team total is 27.5 points (Well it was when we taped Advisors. It's now 26.5, but this stat was compiled on Wednesday). That’s a lot of points to score against a Bill Belichick defense, especially when the Pats are on the road. The Patriots have gone on the road and held opposing offenses to less than 28 points in 9 straight games (20 PPG average). Also keep in mind the Patriots won here 45-0 last season.
The Stats Say: Chargers team total under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-1, 3-4 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (4-2, 3-3 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
Whenever the Saints are getting points, it's not a bad idea to take them. The Saints have not only covered 10 of their last 12 games as an underdog, but they have also won 10 of them outright. And while it's never fun betting against Brady, this is one spot to do it. The Bucs are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.
The Stats Say: Saints
Dallas Cowboys (5-1, 6-0 ATS) @ Minnesota Vikings (3-3, 3-3 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
People think that Andy Reid is the king of bye weeks, but it might actually be Mike McCarthy. He's 11-2-1 ATS off a bye. Dak Prescott is questionable as of the time I'm writing this. But he's 3-1 ATS off a bye, and also 9-2 SU and ATS with extra rest in his career. HOWEVA, it is worth noting that the Cowboys are 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 primetime games. Honestly, this just depends on the status of Dak. But if he's playing…
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (2-5 YTD): I fucking stink at these this year. But whatever. I'm due to get hot. Gonna ride with the ole reliable Lions. The best 0-7 team I've ever seen. I have them at 5-2 in my book. And the Bears at home against San Francisco. The Bears may get rolled by any good team, but they usually take care of business against mediocre or bad ones. Give me the Lions and Bears both at +10 on the Barstool Sportsbook for -106. BET WITH ME HERE
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.