There's A Team Total You Don't Want To Miss This Week: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 5
Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this (Wednesday). I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (3-3 last week, 12-12 YTD)
New York Jets (1-3, 1-3 ATS) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-3, 1-3 ATS)
9:30 AM on NFL Network (London)
ATL -3
T 46
Defenses travel to London, but offenses don't. In the last 10 games across the pond, the under is 7-3 (with an average of 38 PPG). And it's rare for the Jets to play in a game with that many points. In their 36 games since the start of 2019, they've played in a game with more than 46 points just 8 times.
The Stats Say: Under
Green Bay Packers (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
GB -3
T 50
We've had some success with team totals in these blogs, and we're going back to that well with the Bengals here. In his young career, Joe Burrow averages 27 PPG at home. Since the start of last season, the Packers defense allows 28 PPG on the road. And their top corner Jaire Alexander is out this week. The Bengals team total? Just 23.5 points. Love this play.
The Stats Say: Bengals team total over
Cleveland Browns (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (3-1, 3-1 ATS)
4:05 PM on CBS
LAC -1.5
T 47
A little peak behind the curtain here, I hate when we do a Browns game on Advisors. For whatever reason, they're an extremely difficult team to find trends for. Not a ton of consistency for them. But there is one play here. The under. The under has hit in 5 straight home games for the Chargers. Overall, unders are 15-6 at SoFi Stadium. And both defenses have been stout this season. The Chargers are allowing just 18.5 PPG this season, the Browns 16.75 PPG. And as a whole, both Browns and Chargers games this season average a total of 42 points. Well below this number.
The Stats Say: Under
New York Giants (1-3, 2-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 4-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
DAL -7
T 52
This is a spot to ride Daniel Jones and the Giants. Jones is 10-2 ATS as a road dog (includes last week's outright win in New Orleans). Overall, the Giants are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 as a road dog, and they're 11-2 ATS in their last 13 on the road. The Giants have also covered 5 straight against the NFC East. And numbers aside, I like the Giants as a fan here. I'm not usually optimistic with this team. And I think the Cowboys are good. But I loved what I saw from the offense last week. Jones looks good. Saquon is getting back to being Saquon. Golladay is a stud. And Kadarius Toney is absolutely electric when they get the ball in his hands. I can see a big game from him, especially if Slayton and Shepard are still out.
The Stats Say: Giants
Buffalo Bills (3-1, 3-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -3
T 56.5
There’s a lot of pro Buffalo trends here. There's a lot of anti-Chiefs trends. To be honest, there's too many to choose from and type out. So if you're a trends bettor, the play is the Bills. To give you the simplest stat, the Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games. The Chiefs are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. One team covers. One team doesn't.
The Stats Say: Bills
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (1-3 YTD): I'd really like to get back on track here after 3 straight losses. Sticking with 2 teams this week. We're going Bucs -3 and Lions +17. It's at -125 on the Barstool Sportsbook. Bet it HERE.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
