Welcome back to the Stats Lab. Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors each week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are also something you want to look at. So it's all a case by case basis.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this. I'll also be giving a pick or two for each game based on what the stats say and keeping track of my year long record (3-3 last week and YTD)
Buffalo Bills (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
The Bills won 13 games last season. They lost last week. That's good news for them this week. Since 2005, teams that won 13 or more games one year and then start 0-1 the next season don't often fall to 0-2. Since 2005, teams in that spot are 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS in Week 2.
The Stats Say: Bills
Las Vegas Raiders (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
On the other side of things, the Raiders won last week which is pretty terrible news for them this week. Winning streaks are hard to come by for them. Since 2017 following a win, the Raiders 8-16 SU and ATS, both are the worst mark in football. Conversely, the Steelers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a win. It's also worth noting that Raiders overs are 13-3-1 since the start of last season. Meanwhile, the Steelers are the fourth best over home team in the league since 2017.
The Stats Say: Steelers and over
Dallas Cowboys (0-1, 1-0 ATS) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
The Cowboys haven't played since the opening TNF game against the Bucs. That's 10 days ago. Dak gets a lot more dangerous with fresher legs. He's 8-2 both SU and ATS when playing on extra rest in career, averaging 30 PPG.
The Stats Say: Cowboys
Tennessee Titans (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
Tennessee got absolutely embarrassed last week with a 38-13 loss to the Cardinals at home. They bounce back extremely well after embarrassment under Mike Vrabel who probably just chews them out for a week straight. The Titans have won 8 straight games following a double digit loss. Overall under Vrabel, they’re 8-2 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in that spot.
The Stats Say: Titans
Kansas City Chiefs (1-0, 0-1 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
Patrick Mahomes in September is quite literally unbeatable. As in, he has never lost. He's 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS, with an average margin of victory of 11 points. And here's a little something extra for you. In those 11 games, the Chiefs average 34 PPG. They’ve scored less than 33 just twice. Their team total this week is only 29.5. Keep in mind the Ravens just gave up 33 points to the Raiders.
The Stats Say: Chiefs and Chiefs team total over
Tommy Teaser Of The Week (1-0 last week and YTD): Titans +13, Steelers -0.5, Chiefs/Ravens over 47 at +148
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.