Kemba Walker Currently Looks So Much Better Offensively, So What Changed?

Maddie Meyer. Getty Images.

In the first half of the season, we saw two very different versions of Kemba. At an even 20 games played on the season, you can pretty much break things down into two 10 game samples. They could not have been more polar opposites.

First 10 games: 15 points / 3.5 rebounds / 4.3 assists / 34% FG% / 30% 3P% with 2.2 3PM

Shit was rough, no two ways about it. The frustrating part was nothing we saw when it came to Kemba's struggles looked health related. In that span you had a 3-13, 1-12, and 2-12 performances. It's OK to admit that his slow start was costing this team much needed wins. The reason I pleaded with you guys not to freak out in this blog

on February 10th was because Kemba's struggles were nothing we hadn't seen before. For the most part, he was just missing shots that we're all used to Kemba knocking down. Shit like this

Very frustrating, no two ways about it. The numbers backed up what we were seeing with our eyes. From 5ft or closer, Kemba was shooting just 42% to start the season, 10% from 5-9ft, 37% from 10-14, 46% from 15-19, 16% from 20-24, and a decent 35% from 25-29ft. The point is, it was hard to find a zone of the floor where Kemba wasn't struggling. He was getting his same looks off the P&R and the same pull up threes he always did, only he couldn't make anything to save his life. 

During this timeframe of his first 10 games, about 56.6% of Kemba's shots were pull ups in which he shot just 33%. As a catch and shoot option, that happened around 14.5% of his possessions and he shot a 31% clip. Things weren't any prettier when it came to his "open" looks, shooting just 34% on wide open shots. It also didn't help that around 42% of shit shots were in "tight" converage, since he shot 29% in those situations. 

The biggest thing we had to deal with was there was no consistency in Kemba's play. One good game followed by two or three stinkers. It was maddening for a player that looked healthy. Naturally the hot takes ensued. He was washed. He would never return back to the player we saw last season, on and on it went. 

Then we moved into the second half of his 20 games

Next 10 games: 21.9 points / 3.7 rebounds / 4.8 assists / 43% FG% / 41% 3P% with 3.7 3PM

Well shit, that's last year's Kemba. It just is. All of a sudden it made more sense that Kemba's issues were rhythm related. Now he was much more consistent on a night to night basis and was back to making the shots that he should normally make. Of that 10 game span, Kemba finished with at least 20 points in 7 of them. Really there were only 2-ish stinkers in that sample. So what changed? 

Well for starters, his ability to finish around the rim sky rocketed. He's at 69% over this 10 game span from less than 5 ft. That's a whole lot closer to the 52% he was at last season. We've also seen Kemba improve his pull up FG% to 37% and his catch and shoot numbers have gone up from 31% to 40%. Perhaps his most impactful jump has to be the fact that in "tight" coverage Kemba is shooting 39.7% compared to the 29% it was to start the year. That's important because at his height, a lot of what we are going to see from Kemba will be contested. 

In terms of approach, we're really not seeing the Celts change all that much when it comes to Kemba's offense. We're still seeing Brad run a quick high screen for him so he has a nice little shooting pocket to step into

But I would say the biggest difference is we're seeing Kemba feel more comfortable getting into his sweet spot in the midrange/paint area. This usually comes off a high screen as well when he realizes he's being guarded by a big man that has nowhere near the lateral quickness required to stay in front

I cannot stress enough how important a shot like this is for Kemba's offense. If he has this back in his bag, defending him becomes a whole lot more difficult. If you get too high up, he's going to blow past you and finish at the rim. If you sag too much, he'll take that step in three. If he knows he has you guessing, well here comes the midrange. That one shot opens up so much for what Kemba wants to do offensively it's not exactly a surprise that his turnaround these last 10 games has come with that type of shot falling more consistently. 

The big question we are all wondering is if Kemba can keep this level of play up. He obviously still has to have a longer stretch for most of us to truly take a deep breath, but nothing we are seeing during this 10 game stretch is unsustainable. It's not like he's shooting some outrageous percentage. He's just back to what his career averages are. The way Brad is getting him looks is no different these last 10 games than they were in the first. You're just seeing a more confident player take those shots. I don't think it's crazy to suggest that Kemba has looked better the more he's actually played. That's encouraging. 

Because make no mistake about it. Whatever version of Kemba this team gets ultimately decides their ceiling. That first 10 game Kemba? This team is fucked if that's what they get. But this last 10? That's a version that can have this team competing with anyone. That's the perfect level of #3 option production the Jays need in support. 

What this all tells me is whatever the load management plan the team has for Kemba is working and does not need to change. Sure it's annoying when this team drops a B2B in part because he's sitting, but that's a small price to pay if this is the version of Kemba the team will have come the playoffs. I wouldn't change a thing because obviously his health is more important than any seed. 

It'll be interesting to see how he looks after this extended break, but considering he's now been at this very acceptable level for half of his season, I'm willing to step out on a limb and say the second half will look closer to these last 10 games than the first 10. 

Kemba has his rhythm back and that could not be more of a relief.