DeVonta Smith Is An Awesome Player, But He Won't Be A Top 10 Pick
Heisman Trophy Winner DeVonta Smith had an outstanding game on Monday night. He had 12 catches for 213 yards and 3 TDs at halftime! He's just been on fire recently, in his last three games he has 34 catches for 529 yards and 8 TDs. Check out his highlight reel, there's no questioning that he is an awesome player:
He was well deserving of the Heisman and finished off his senior season with a National Championship. In the middle of the game Monday night as Smith was about to score his 3rd TD of the 1st half I tweeted out something that the prisoner of the moment crowd did not like or agree with:
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I'm getting absolutely crushed online, but that's ok. Lots of people calling me an idiot:
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That's alright, I'm ok being on an island. At least, I thought it was an island. Two of the top Draft Analysts out there, Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Books who host my favorite non-Barstool podcast, Move The Sticks, also agreed with my take that he won't likely be a top 10 pick. Part of their argument aligned with mine in the fact that Smith is slight of frame at 6005 175 lbs. He's also not expected to be an elite timed speed guy like other smaller Receivers that have gone high (John Ross ran a 4.22). Smith is expected to run in the low to mid 4.5s for his 40 yard dash. So his physical profile is not a ++ by any means.
D.J. also made a great point reinforcing my 'positional value' argument stating that 2nd round WRs the past few years had been outstanding and the drop-off from other positions like Offensive Tackle is much greater going into Day 2. When we look at how the current NFL Draft order goes, what are his projected landing spots? #3 to Miami seems a bit rich although he does have a history with Tua Tagovailoa, #6 to Philadelphia is certainly in play, but after that? #7 to Detroit? Kenny Golladay is a free agent, but would the new HC like to take an undersized WR with his first ever pick? Letting their best player go (Darius Slay Jr.) and drafting his replacement high (Jeff Okudah) didn't seem to work out well for the Lions this year. #9 Denver and #10 Dallas just took WRs in the 1st round last year. Now certainly there could be a team moving up for him, but all I was doing was making an observation about how the NFL Draft works. Teams draft on traits and potential to go along with the tape. Certainly he had a fantastic college career and I think he'll be a good pro, but I would just say it's not a lock that he goes top 10 and we shouldn't be surprised if he goes somewhere in the #11 - #25 range as I predicted in my initial mock draft after the season.
And before you blindly say you disagree because he is an amazing college player and name a bunch of smaller WRs who are great NFL players, I'd like to leave you with all the WRs chosen in the Top 10 the past five years:
2016: none
2017: #5 Corey Davis (TEN) , #7 Mike Williams (LAC), #9 John Ross (CIN)
2018: none
2019: none
2020: none