Tommy Stats NFL Week 11: Patrick Mahomes And Andy Reid Off A Bye Are Nearly Unstoppable
Welcome back to the lab. Every Sunday morning during this NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats and trends that I presented on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some additional ones that I didn't get to use. These stats are a mixture of ones I've found across various websites, and also some just through my own research from pouring through the data.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1, 3-6 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3, 3-6 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
CLE -3
T 45.5
We know the Browns have had a couple very low scoring games in a row (39 total points over the last 2 weeks). The Eagles have also been an under machine in November.
-The under is 12-2 in the Eagles last 14 November games. In their past 7 November games, they average just 16 PPG.
Tennessee Titans (6-3, 3-6 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -6.5
T 49
A couple of reasons to dislike the Ravens here.
-The Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite
-They also don't bounce back well. The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
New England Patriots (4-5, 4-5 ATS) @ Houston Texans (2-7, 2-7 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
NE -2
T 47.5
Since the infamous Letterman Jacket game in December 2012, the Patriots have owned the Texans.
8-1 SU (only loss last season)
6-3 ATS
-Houston has also been terrible as underdogs. They are 0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games when playing as the underdog
Green Bay Packers (7-2, 6-3 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
IND -3
T 51
-The Packers last 9 games after not covering - they are 9-0 SU and 9-0 ATS, average winning margin of 13 PPG
-The Packers are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a ATS loss.
-Since the start of last season, the Packers are 5-1 ATS in a dome, averaging 32 PPG.
Kansas City Chiefs (8-1, 6-3 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 6-3 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
KC -6.5
T 56.5
All the trends here point towards Kansas City.
-On the road inside the AFC West, Andy Reid is 17-5 ATS
-The Chiefs 39-19 ATS on the road under Reid.
Andy Reid's dominance off a bye is long documented, and it's gotten even more impressive with Patrick Mahomes.
-In his Kansas City tenure, Reid is 7-4 ATS with an extra week to prepare (23-5 SU in his career). That includes playoffs.
-Patrick Mahomes off a bye (also including playoffs) is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, averaging 41 PPG.
-And for what it's worth, the Chiefs faced the Raiders off a bye the last two seasons and scored exactly 40 points each time (40-33 and 40-9 victories).
-In general, road favorites off a bye since 2003 cover 69% of the time.
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.
It'll also air again at 11, followed by the Pro Football Football show.