Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Cleveland Cavaliers Edition
Welcome back,
Today we’ll be taking a look at the {last team I reviewed here because I’m terrible at copy & paste apparently}. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only eleven.
The rules are the same: I’ll be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed at and three things they could do this summer to improve. I’ll issue one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Cleveland Cavaliers (19-63, 14th place Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. A successful tank
They closed the season on a 10 game losing streak to lock in a spot as a bottom three team. They turned Kyle Korver, George Hill, Rodney Hood and cap space into eight future picks with smart trades. They took a couple of fliers on Marquese Chriss, Cam Payne and Patrick McCaw. Those fliers fucking sucked but I like the effort. They had no draft picks in 2016 or 2017, and only one in 2018 so they had to get something with it. And they did.
2. The Sex Man
“It’s becoming increasingly clear that when you hear a Cavs veteran talk about younger players not knowing their role, or knowing how to win, or what to do on the court, they mean Sexton. Throughout the organization, the line on Sexton is that he does not ‘know how to play.'”
This came out November 3. Later that night:
Nobody:
JR Smith: “My ROY ballot? That’s right I’ve got Young first, Doncic second and DiVincenzo third.”
Not a great look that teammates are privately and publicly questioning your first-round pick nine games into his career. Sexton, to be fair, was stinking it up (11 PPG on 41% FG/22% 3P). He had as many turnovers as assists and more fouls than either. Imagine being 19, struggling on the court and being openly knocked by your coworkers two weeks into a new gig. This could have gone from bad to worse in a hurry and to Sexton’s credit, he didn’t let it.
Since JR’s Tweet, Sexton played every game and averaged 17 PPG on 40% 3P. His assists went up, his turnovers/fouls went down and he started to look like an NBA player. It would have been easy for a kid to shut down at that point and he did everything but.
He’s a terrible defender, 513/514th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (only ahead of Trae Young) and the eye test matches the numbers. He’s using as many possessions as Jrue Holiday but only assisting as much as Julius Randle. He’s a good shooter (40% 3P, 83% FT) but doesn’t take as many threes or FTs as he should to be effective. These are legit warts but are things that can be improved/worked around.
This team had the worst defensive rating in NBA history. Guard defense, while irrelevant, is difficult. Imagine guarding Harden/Steph/Russ/Lillard/Kemba as a rookie with literally the worst defense of all time around you. Sexton has the physical tools/motor to improve so I’m not as concerned about the defense, but the passing concerns are legit. If he can hit shots at that clip there’s a role for him in this league, but it can’t be using as many possessions as he did last year. He’ll have to either improve his playmaking for others or prove to be a bigger threat away off the ball. He won’t get ROY votes and his numbers aren’t eye-popping, but for the shit situation he was drafted into the Sex Man has shown some real promise.
3. There’s some young talent here
The LeBron era didn’t provide the luxury of developing young talent. In a completely unrelated note, the LeBron era ended embarrassingly. Sexton was solid. Ante Zizic played 20+ minutes 26 times this season and averaged 12/8 on 57% FG/75% FT shooting in those games. Cedi Osman looks like a rotation wing, at worst. Larry Nance Jr had his best season as a pro and is about to start a 4-year, $45 million extension that decreases in salary each year. I don’t think there are any blue or even red chippers here, but there’s some…..stuff. And we’ve seen time and time again, trading enough “stuff” can get you James Harden, Paul George or even Kyrie Irving! Nail this upcoming draft pick and I think you’ve officially reached “stuff” status. Congrats!
Bad Things
1. Their cap situation is awful at the moment
The Cavs are already over the luxury tax for next year, before adding any rookies or free agents this summer. It’s not my money and fuck Dan Gilbert so idc, but writing a luxury tax check for this team would be a tough pill to swallow and I could see him telling Altman to get under the tax. The Cavs have about $80 million in expiring contracts after next season so if they hold off for one year, they’re in good shape. But they also have enough future assets now to attach one if they need to get off a contract if they need to and they have a number of bad contracts to choose from.
2. The front office is unknown for the most part
Dan Gilbert is really the only proven commodity and he’s proven himself to be batshit crazy, but an owner that will spend money to win.
Larry Drew and the Cavs agreed to part ways so they’ll be looking for a coach yet again.
Who knows if any of those guys are good…but they might be!!! Maybe you get the next Kenny Atkinson, but maybe you get the next Jacque Vaughn. The lottery will be telling as this job becomes more appealing if Zion is in Cleveland and with their history of tampering with the NBA Draft to receive the top pick multiple times current draft odds, it’s worth waiting to see where your pick lands before you make a hire.
GM Koby Altman has been solid since taking over the job in 2017, but unspectacular. He’s turned some cap space into future draft picks but you have to hit the draft picks for it to count and he’s mostly unproven there. He’ll also probably be the one making the coaching decision without much experience there either.
3. Zion aside, you’re looking at a pretty similar outlook for next season
They’re too capped out to make any moves in free agency. The players/picks they have are fine, but not good enough to be legit trade chips. Healthy seasons from Thompson/Love will help but not enough. They have another year of Jordan Clarkson/Brandon Knight locked up and that does no good for nobody. If they end up with the fourth pick in this draft, the next twelve months for this team might look like the last twelve months. And the last twelve months sucked.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. What to do with Kevin Love
Kevin Love got injured in October and didn’t suit up again until February. The Cavs won 19 games all season and seven of those came in the 17 games Love played in after returning from injury. His presence alone made the Cavs offense competent and the Cavs defense…..well, the Cavs offense was competent. He’s about to start a 4-year, $120 million dollar extension that’s a little steep for a 30-year-old big man that hasn’t played 60+ games since 2015. I think the Cavs signed this deal to trade Love to whatever team wants to guarantee that they get something with their cap space this summer or next. I could see the Mavericks wanting to complete their trio of tall whites with another tall white. The Pacers will have plenty of cap space this summer they won’t be able to use. Maybe you can get Sabonis off of them as they look for a frontcourt mate that can play with Myles Turner, as well as be a secondary scorer off Oladipo. The Lakers are always a threat to do something dumb. The Nets are paying $56 million dollars in expiring contracts this season to Dwight Howard, Demarre Carroll, Kenneth Faried and Jared Dudley. I could see them being willing to add Kevin Love for half of that next season.
Or maybe they just keep him. This would be selling him at his lowest value, his spacing alone will help the younger players and by all accounts, he’s a great teammate. HOWEVER JEFF VAN GUNDY if a freshly swept Pacers team says they’d do Sabonis/#18 pick for the security of Kevin Love, I would drive him to the airport myself.
2. Make a decision on Sexton
Zion changes everything but on the off chance the fix ISN’T in, they’ll have to decide how to build around Sexton.
Does he need to play with/off another PG? If so, maybe Ja Morant is in play. Play him off a wing that likes the ball in his hands? Perhaps you lean RJ Barrett. If you’re committed to Sexton as a PG, maybe you go Jarrett Culver or De’Andre Hunter. If you’d like to just light the pick on fire, Cam Reddish is probably your guy. Maybe they go Morant and sell high on Sexton. That’s what I’d do on 2K so I don’t see why it can’t work here. Plenty of options.
3. One more year of tanking probably is for the best
With all the future picks they’ve acquired, they still have another reason to lean into the tank one more season. The Cavs owe Atlanta a first-rounder for the Kyle Korver trade, and next year is the last heavy protection on it. If the Cavs finish with a top 10 pick, the Hawks will instead get two future second-rounders. As aforementioned, one more year also gets all the LeBron leftover contracts off your books. And as double aforementioned, it’s Dan Gilbert’s money and fuck Dan Gilbert so go for it!
Rebuild Status: They’re getting Zion. I can feel it smh. Because LeBron is absolutely coming back to Cleveland for one last hurrah in 2022 to play with LeBron Jr before he buys the Cavs in cash, we know Cleveland is probably getting the number one pick this year and next minimum. For that alone, oh hell yeah.