I've Got Big Beef With Baseball Nerds And Their "Predictions"

This story first started last week with the unbelievable bullshit PECOTA ratings that said the Cubs would finish dead last in their division at 80-82. They have since updated those projections to 79-83 since Milwaukee signed 3b Mike Moustakas to a one-year deal.

I can’t believe I just wrote that sentence.

It was complete and total bullshit:

Now, the Nerds are back with more this time with the projection formula: ZiPS.

This one focuses more on the individual players and I suppose they think the Cubs are going to be slightly better. Although overall it still appears to be wildly disrespectful and now that’s where my beef is with 2019 Baseball Nerds.

Now, please don’t confuse this sentiment. Overall I love the advanced stats guys. They’ve done a ton for the game and have exponentially made life as a baseball fan better. There’s no doubt about that.

But generally you have to take their opinions with a grain of salt. At the end of the day success comes down to people and there’s just no emphasis on winning culture in any of the shit they do. That’s why I say take it with a grain of salt. And when you think about what Theo’s done with the Cubs since taking over, that becomes much much easier.

Let’s think about it together:

Theo’s first big mission was to re-organize the front office into a modern machine. Prior to his arrival the Cubs were the most archaic organization in MLB. In short order they started working on a complete 180 from retraining and restocking the lowest level scouts to building out an internal team of data analysts. And with that came massive changes in leadership and strategy. You know how this story goes. Rizzo trade, Almora & KB & Schwarber & Happ drafted in a row, Hendricks trade, Lester signing, Baez development, Contreras development and on it goes.

But since the Cubs have gotten good and normalized with the rest of leading clubs in MLB, the focus has moved away from Getting Good Players to Getting The Most Out Of Your Good Players. See it’s not enough anymore to just have a loaded roster with depth and versatility. That’s what every team is after now: load up the farm system, bring in a couple veteran studs, let the big dog eat.

The best clubs in baseball have followed that path: Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Indians, Braves. Several other clubs are a few steps behind on the same blueprint: Phillies, Rockies, Padres, White Sox, Reds, Rays and maybe some arguments for others. It’s all about developing and building around home grown position players that are cheap. Then building out your staff in smart trades, good drafting and of course free agency.

When Theo took over the Cubs this was NOT the case. In fact it was quite the opposite. General strategy then was you had MVP caliber players and then you have your grinders supporting the big swinging dicks. Your grinders are OBP heavy with a proven track record of not striking out. The sole focus is put the 3-4-5 in a position to do serious damage. Pitching was about clearly defined roles: your Ace and #2 had to pitch deep. Your 3-5 starters all looked the same: young guys that may potentially develop into a #2. Lots of right handed 93mph fastballs with sliders and average changeups with no versatility. Then of course the bullpen: one lefty, one righty, one set up, one closer. Those 4 pieces were used exclusively to determine the value of your bullpen.

Those were the waning days of the steroid era. Where every pitcher could be Roger Clemens if they worked hard enough and position players were stuffed into very strict categories from day 1.

That collision of Moneyball meets Old School baseball was a hilarious time for decision making across MLB. Remember Prince Fielder’s contract? How about Barry Zito’s $126m deal or BJ Upton or David Wright or Cano or Ellsburry? The list of hilariously bad contracts is seamingly endless, and almost entirely reflective of what was important at the time. It was legitimately more valuable to some teams to hit free agency then spend smart on the draft and international market.

Theo set the curve on how to adapt from this and the results are not just obvious but etched in baseball history. To that end, it’s important to realize that the next wave of adaptations are coming in the form of Human Capital. About getting the most out of your guys not just physically but mentally and emotionally. You want a committed group of players top to bottom working towards the same goal.

You won’t find any of that in the ZiPS or PECOTA or GOFUCKYOURSELFS. They’re not in the spreadsheet and definitely not on the back of your baseball cards. This is Soft Skill City USA and Theo Epstein is leading the charge. Find a better Team Builder on planet Earth. I’ll wait.

So take comfort in the lack of respect the Cubs are getting. Most of the shit the baseball world is talking about is quickly become old news. For now though we just have to stomach it. When the Cubs roll through 2019 the Nerds can huddle up again to find out what they missed. It’s a sad Spoiler Alert but let’s be honest – the Nerds will never understand.