Hey Look, Actual Offense!!

Allow me to take you back in time, to the first 22 days of the NBA season. The Celtics were 6-4 over this span with the 27th ranked offense in the league and were shooting 43/35% which was good for 26th. Things were a disaster and people were freaking out as is tradition around these parts. Would they ever figure it out? How could they be this bad offensively? What is going on?

Well, what if I told you the Celtics have spent more time this season (26 days) as a top 10 offense than they did at the bottom of the league? That’s where they’ve been since 11/7, the 9th best offense in the league. Now you wouldn’t tell by their record in which they went 7-6, but the facts are this team offensively is starting to turn a corner as guys are coming back to their averages and away from this horrific starts shooting the ball. They’re shooting splits are up to 46/37% over this stretch, which has them up to 17th. The biggest improvement is for sure behind the arc, where the Celtics are making 13 3PM over this stretch good for 3rd in the league. What’s interesting there is the first two teams (HOU/MIL) are on average taking 7 and 5 more threes a night than the Celts. This tells me the Celtics are using the three point shot correctly, are not overly relying on it, and guys are starting to knock down shots. Wild what this team looks like when the ball goes into the basket, but all those nerves and hot takes about how this team would always suck offensively can be put to bed for the time being.

But there’s more to the Celtics sudden rise up the offensive charts than just their improved shooting. When you look at the teams that have had some of the best offensive starts this year, all of them are at the top of the league when it comes to passing. Teams like GS, MIL, NO, DEN, PHI are among the top 5 teams in assists, and it’s no surprise they came in at the top of the leagues offenses. For the Celtics, to put it simply, they passing STUNK to start the year. They were in the bottom half of passes per game through those first 22 games, and as a result the offense suffered because as we know this is a team that relies heavily on ball movement.

It’s no surprise that the offense has turned around at the same time the team’s passing has gotten so much better. Now 7th in assists per night over this 26 day stretch and 4th in secondary assists, the ball is moving much closer to what we’re used to. The Celtics are 5th in the league over this timeframe in assisted FGM at 62%, and it’s no surprise that the more the ball is moving, the more defenses are having to rotate, and the better this team is at attacking the paint. It’s no secret the offensive approach of this team was offensive, guys were just not playing smart.

For example, in those first 22 days, Jayson Tatum was taking 5.0 mid range shots a night, shooting 28% in that zone. Since then, he’s trimmed it to 3.2 attempts at 39%. Much closer to the Tatum we saw last year. Instead, he’s put more of a focus on attacking the rim, upping his FGA in the restricted area from 2.7 to 4.0. I cannot stress how much of a difference this makes. Not only because it lowers a shot that isn’t a very high percentage look, but also attacking the rim allows for offensive rebounds and keeps the defense on their toes. The same can be said for Terry Rozier offensively. It looks like he is starting to figure it out and come around in one very important area for him which is his ability to finish in the paint. Early in the year Rozier was shooting 27% in the paint not in the restricted area, during this good stretch, that number is up to 41.7%.

Add in the offensive dynamic that Hayward gives this team, and you can see why Ainge and Brad wanted him so badly. As he gets closer and closer with each game, it’s no surprise to me that this offense is looking it’s best when we have Hayward knocking down shots and effectively running an offense. We’re seeing how important his passing can be to both the starting group and the second unit, as the Celts have a 110 rating with him on the floor during these last 26 days and a STUPID 68% assist percentage. For everyone who was freaking out that Hayward would never return to form, we’re seeing what that looks like and the results are pretty intoxicating.

I also want to give credit to Kyrie as well, because he’s passing the ball better than any time outside of his rookie year. His 35% assist percentage is the highest since that 2011-12 season and his 9.6 assists per 100 possessions is a career high. Kyrie was known for a lot of things before he got to Boston, but a legit passer wasn’t one of them. He’s been great in this area this season, playing unselfish and not forcing things offensively just because this team may have been struggling. He clearly understands that this offense is at its best when the ball is moving, and that’s exactly what he’s doing.

Let’s face it, if the Celtics want to go deep in the playoffs, they need a top 10 offense. NBA history tells us as much when you look into past champions and past teams that made deep runs. You can’t do that with a 27th ranked offense. Fortunately, for as bad as their first 22 days were on that end of the floor, the Celtics have legit turned a corner offensively and can only get better as guys get more comfortable and Hayward gets even more confident. It was fair to be a little nervous given how this team looked, but it sure does seem like we’re about to see what life is like with a Top 10 offense and a Top 10 defense, and chances are I think we’re going to like the results.