Lamar Jackson Is The MVP Over Russell Wilson Because He's Leading One Of The Greatest Offenses The NFL Has Ever Seen

Banks12/03/2019 11:10 PM

Two dual-threat quarterbacks. Two 10-2 football teams. One MVP. One Lamar Jackson.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the MVP race through 12 games is coming down to Lamar vs Russell Wilson. Both have had fantastic seasons and have proven to be fantastic leaders. We already knew that Wilson was capable as a leader, but Lamar has proven time and time again that he’s a special leader that guys want to go to war with. He’s not in the middle of the pre-game huddle giving speeches a la Ray Lewis, but he’s leading with his actions. He’s leading with confidence in the way he plays, he’s leading by example by fighting for every yard, and he’s picking up his guys when they’re down, both literally and figuratively. It’s infectious as fuck. No knock on Russ, but it’s a different level of leadership than just blurting out platitudes from Friday Night Lights.

Leadership aside, these two have already faced off head-to-head. Obviously one game doesn’t make a season but the 2nd half was so telling in terms of the way Lamar impacts the game. The score was 13-13 on a rain-soaked day when Lamar got the ball with 6:46 left in the 3rd quarter. Lamar lead the team on a 11 play, 57 yard touchdown drive capped off by the now infamous “Hell yeah coach, let’s go for it” 4th and 2 conversion.

After Russell Wilson failed to answer and the Seahawks punted, Lamar methodically marched the team to a clock-sucking 13 play, 86 yard field goal drive that took a full 9 minutes off the clock. At 23-13 with less than 4 minutes left, the game was essentially over by the time Russ got the ball back. That’s a microcosm of this entire season. This Ravens offense isn’t just putting points on the board. They’re breaking their opponent’s wills. They’re rendering guys like Russell Wilson helpless as they watch games slip away. Lamar Jackson is completely controlling the way the game is played and that’s why he’s so valuable.

There are numerous ways to quantify the game-controlling effect that Lamar has and there are statistics that display that what the Ravens offense is doing is absolutely insane. We’re talking GOAT offense type of numbers here. They’re vastly decreasing the number of possessions in each football game, and they’re far more efficient in each of their possessions than anyone else in the league.

Football Outsiders has in-depth drive statistics (that even back out kneeldown drives) that date back to 2000 (and 1993 in lesser depth) that suggest the Ravens offense may have a legitimate case to be the greatest offense to ever play football, and it’s all being led by a 22-year old running back under center.

For example:

Exhibit A – Yards Per Drive

The Ravens have had 104 drives this season, fewest in the league. On those drives, they’re averaging 45.41 yards per drive. That’s EASILY the best in the league this season and an eye-popping 13.72 yards above the league average.

Please note that Seattle’s offense is nowhere to be found on that top 10 list.

But what’s crazier is that the Ravens also have BY FAR the highest yards per drive that the league has ever seen. BY NEARLY A FULL 3 YARDS. They’re far and away from the rest of the pack.

That’s insanity. This sample only goes back to 2000, but don’t give me that “they played in a different era” bullshit. Feel free to go back and look at those historic ’99 Rams and ’98 Vikings teams. Those teams were 8.38 and 9.33 yards above league average, or 32% and 34% better if you want to go that route. The Ravens are gaining 43% more yards per drive than the league average. Only the 2007 Patriots hold a candle to the Ravens on a percentage basis as they were 13.11 yards above the league average, which comes out to 46%. That’s the stratosphere the Ravens are currently in.

Exhibit B – Points Per Drive

On those 104 drives, they’ve scored 3.38 points per drive. The gap between them and #2 team is EVEN BIGGER than the yards per drive statistic with the Chiefs coming in all the way back at 2.6 points per drive.

Here we see Seattle sneak into the top 10, over a full point per drive less than the Ravens. And wouldn’t ya know it? The Ravens are scoring at a rate hisorically higher than the game has ever seen before.

The objective of an offense is to score points and they’re more efficient in scoring points than any offense ever. It’s crazy that no one is talking about this yet.

Exhibit C – Time of Possession

The Ravens currently lead the league in time of possession at 34:55 per game. The next closest team is the 49ers alllll the way back at 32:39. With those two teams facing off last week, they actually hurt each other’s statistics in this category, with the Ravens winning out 32:26 to 27:34 in that tug o’ war. But anyways. #1 in the league by a HUGE margin.

And of course, there’s historical significance here as well. NFL.com’s statistics for time of possession date all the way back to 1991. In that period, only 4 teams have ever even eclipsed the 34 minute mark for a full season:

The Ravens have spent the majority of this season well above 35 minutes per game and just may be the first team to achieve the feat. While one may try to argue that this is a statistic that equally reflects offensive and defensive success, I invite you to look at this:

The Ravens are chewing up more clock per possession on the offensive side of the ball than any team ever by a significant margin. That type of ball control has everything to do with Lamar’s ability to run AND throw the football and opposing defenses helplessness to stop it. They just can’t get off the field against Lamar. Certainly the Ravens’ defense has done their part (especially in recent weeks), but that’s easier to do when you’re constantly well rested. Lamar’s value doesn’t just extend to the guys around him on the offensive side of the ball. It extends to the WHOLE team. And if you’re the opposition, it puts a tremendous amount of pressure on your own offense to make the most of your own possessions, because you know Lamar is gonna make the most of his. As seen below….

Exhibit D – Touchdown Percentage

The Ravens have scored touchdowns on 40.4% of their drives. The next closest team is Minnesota at 31%. THAT’S RIDICULOUS!!! They’re showing ability not only to move the football, but to punch it in as well. Their 5.47 points per red zone trip is #1 in the league. But just the fact that they’re marching down the field and punching it into the end zone over 40% of the time is pure insanity.

Historically? They can’t quite stake a claim to #1, but they come damn close. 3rd all-time. There are those damn 2007 Patriots again. You’d never know the Ravens are in this type of territory based on what’s being covered by the national media but there they are, going toe to toe with the consensus #1 offense in the history of the game.

Exhibit E – Scoring Percentage

Taking that a step further, the Ravens are scoring on 59.6% of all of their drives. Of course the touchdown % in Exhibit D is the majority of what comprises this number, but it’s important to try to wrap your head around what that means when you add field goals in too. The Ravens are scoring nearly 6 out of 10 times they touch the football. The Chiefs are next closest at 49.5% and 3rd place is Minnesota at 45.2%. The gap between 1st and 3rd is 14.4%. That’s about the same gap between 3rd and alllll the way down at 25th with the Broncos scoring on 30.7% of their drives. Just absurd how much more efficient the Ravens O has been than anyone else.

Again, can’t help but notice where Russell Wilson’s offense ranks in all of this. Anyways.

In the data available to us, only 9 NFL teams have ever succeeded in putting points on the board on more drives than they didn’t. There’s something to be said about that. You’d think that number would be much higher in today’s day and age but it’s not. Defenses may be less capable than they used to be, but ultimately they win out more often than they don’t. But not with the 2019 Ravens. And wouldn’t you know it, the Ravens are comfortably #1 all-time by more than 3.4%.

So yeah. The Ravens offense is historically good. There’s a ton of people who deserve credit for it. Greg Roman and John Harbaugh have done an unbelievable job on all fronts, whether it be designing schemes to get the most out of Lamar or simply buying in and putting their complete trust in him. The OL has played out of its mind and given their QB clean pockets to throw from when he so chooses. The tight ends and Patrick Ricard have been so so good throwing wham and trap blocks and sealing edges and catching first down passes. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have been terrific at running the ball downhill and taking what the defenses’ fear of Lamar gives them. The receivers have been unspectacular outside of Hollywood Brown on deep balls, but they deserve a ton of credit for blocking on the edges and downfield. Everybody is doing their part and it’s a beautiful thing. But the one common denominator and the one person who makes it all possible is Lamar Jackson. Any argument otherwise is lunacy.

So when anyone tries to tell you Russell Wilson should be the MVP, refer them to this here blog. Russ has been great. He’s a special player. But even if you want to make a case that Lamar has more help around him, the gap between the two and what Lamar’s offense is achieving is nothing short of ridiculous. He’s the leader of one of the greatest offenses the game has ever seen. Period.

Now. That’s not going to stop those with simple brains from trying to make weak arguments. Those with simple brains love counting statistics, so I’ll leave them you all with one final argument that boils it down to individual stats.

Here are Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson’s statistics as is:

Lamar Jackson: 214/322, 66.5%, 2,532 yards, 25 TD’s, 5 INT’s, 140 carries, 977 yards, 7 TD’s

Russell Wilson: 258/383, 67.4%, 3,177 yards, 26 TD’s, 4 INT’s, 57 carries, 284 yards, 3 TD’s

I’d say these statistics alone are enough to call the fight, but people will try to argue anyway. So listen to this.

Let’s say they’ve each had an equal amount of possessions, which are essentially opportunities to compile statistics. The Ravens have had 104 drives, and RGIII has led 9 of them because the Ravens have absolutely blown the doors off of a bunch of teams. So with that math, Lamar has led 95 drives and put up those statistics seen above. Seattle has had 127 drives, and Russell Wilson has led all of them. So if we extrapolate Lamar’s statistics on a straight-line to compare them apples to apples based on Russell’s number of possessions (which is fairly close to the league average of 120), their statistics would look something like this.

Lamar Jackson: 286/430, 66.5%, 3,384 yards, 33 TD’s, 7 INT’s, 187 carries, 1,306 yards, 9 TD’s

Russell Wilson: 258/383, 67.4%, 3,177 yards, 26 TD’s, 4 INT’s, 57 carries, 284 yards, 3 TD’s

I don’t know what more needs to be said. For reference, the league leader in rushing yards is Nick Chubb at 1,175. Lamar would have him beat by well over 100 yards AND be the leader in passing TD’s by SEVEN. He’d be the best running back AND the best quarterback in the league. He probably is anyway, but the evidence would leave no doubt on that front.

Lamar is playing football that efficiently. He’s THAT special. It’s off the fucking charts how good he is and the impact he has on football games. He and his offense are succeeding at a rate that the game has never seen before. He’s the MVP and it shouldn’t even be a conversation at this point. It’s crazy to say such a thing with 25% of the season still left but that’s how much of a runaway this MVP race is. It’s time for the national media to acknowledge this and shift the conversation away from that and towards where the 2019 Ravens offense stands in the pantheon of all-time great offenses. They have a chance to cement their status over the next 2 months. And it’s all thanks to Lamar.

Lamar Jackson is the MVP. Simple as that. Case closed.