The Cubs Need Jacob deGrom
“The five-inning stint from the starter is making it very difficult to piece it together,” Maddon said after Tuesday’s loss. “We’ve done it for a long period of time, but we need to get that straightened out.”
Let’s get on the same page. Any reasonable MLB team’s Goal is to win the World Series. They’re not here for orange slices and pool parties. They’re here for parades and hookers. So any question, thought, hypothetical, etc. presented regarding the trade deadline should be considered under the premise of whether or not it helps improve the acquiring-club’s chances of winning the World Series.
In the short-term, that could mean this season’s World Series. Longer-term, push it out over 3-5 years and ask yourself “Is this deal going to completely ruin our chances at a future World Series?” Appropriately balancing those short and long-term considerations is critical to not fucking up demonstrably at the trade deadline.
Take Chapman for Gleyber Torres. That’s a perfect example of balancing the now vs. the future. The Cubs didn’t stand a chance in 2016 without a bullpen stud, and Torres probably wasn’t in a position to play everyday in the short-term with Baez and Russell ahead of him. Torres is obviously killing it now, but the Cubs got their World Series while Russell and Baez have turned out to be premium players at their positions. Since 2016, the group has averaged the following WAR per 650 plate appearances: Baez 5.2, Russell 4.9, Torres 5.0.
It’s difficult to be salty about Torres no matter how good he becomes. The fact is the Cubs got what they needed without monstrously jeopardizing their future as evidenced by the 2017 NLCS appearance and the NL’s best record half-way through 2018.
I say that because maybe the Cubs need to trade Baez for deGrom. Maybe.
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In the long-term quick reminder that Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be free agents this offseason. In the mid-term quick reminder that Jacob deGrom is not a free agent until 2021. And in the short-term quick reminder that the Cubs’ existing starting pitching is not good enough to beat the Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox or probably Yankees.
Working backwards the question should be – are the 2018 Cubs good enough to win the World Series right now?
Probably not?
That’s right Joe. Probably not.
And let me take a second to acknowledge that I’m not close to being ready to talk about Javy Baez. That part of my thinking is completely irrelevant at this point. Just stay with me.
Assume the rotation is Lester, Hendricks, Quintana to open up the NLDS. That’s good enough to get through Philly or Atlanta or Milwaukee or Arizona. But that won’t cut it against the Dodgers, realistically, unless the offense explodes. Nail me to the cross. I don’t give a fuck. Fact is those 3 arms are not enough to get through LA, and even if they did, the World Series would be a blood bath.
Trust me I don’t want to write these sentences but here we are. This is life.
Jacob deGrom is an absolute fucking STUD. He’s like Pedro-lyte. He leads the NL in FIP, ERA+ and nasty pitches thrown. Easily the front runner for NL Cy Young and under club control for another 2.5 seasons meaning THREE Octobers of Jacob deGrom. He’d immediately slide into the #1 spot moving Lester Hendricks and Q down in the rotation.
With deGrom, the NLDS rotation 1-4 would be deGrom, Lester, Hendricks, Q. That rotation does not lose in the divisional series. Then if playing the Dodgers in the NLCS, you’re appropriately setup against Kershaw, Strippling, Wood and Maeda. Some would say the Cubs actually have a significantly better rotation under that matchup. Then thinking into the WS, it would be practically impossible to defeat any of the likely American League representatives without deGrom pitching against the likes of Verlander, Cole, Severino or Sale. It would be foolish to think otherwise.
Don’t be a fool!
I’m sorry if that hurts your feelings but I’m coming 100% from a place of logic and reason. And my point remains fixed – are the 2018 Cubs good enough to win the World Series with the current starting pitching? No. So what can be done to address that in the short and long term?
Trading for deGrom will not be easy. Baez straight up wouldn’t be enough and would likely mean prospects, which is an insignificant consideration for me at this point. Baez on the other hand is very, very significant. I don’t need to get into his value and what he can do across the field defensively. I’ve been following him for 7 years now. I love this guy. He is the heart and soul of a lineup that would struggle without his electricity. The fans love him. The team loves him. And he’s very, very fucking good at playing baseball.
But, if the Mets say Javy is what they need to get this deal done, I don’t see any justification in not pulling the trigger assuming the goal is to win a World Series. It would be painful. It would be horrible. I’d be very sad for a very long period of time. I’d have to forget Javy ever existed and I don’t want to do that. I really don’t.
But I also don’t want to watch the Cubs lose because the starting pitching wasn’t good enough and we knew it in May 2018. I don’t want to miss out on an opportunity to have Jacob deGrom leading the pitching staff into the next 3 Octobers. I don’t want to lose because we let the emotion of loving Javy get in the way of business. I was in the 1914 Club this week. The money is there to sign Machado or Harper.
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Alternatively, maybe Happ and Russell can get the deal done with Monty and some prospects. Maybe not. I’d be much more inclined to that with Javy sliding over to shortstop in the short-term. But my long-term gut says Russell is the better shortstop in 2020 and beyond. This is where it gets extremely difficult.
At the simplest terms, I know the starting pitching needs to improve. And I know that the lineup would be good enough without Javy to win October baseball games. Most importantly though, I know that the only thing I truly want is more of this:
sup ladies
And the only way to get there is to drastically improve the starting pitching. Otherwise I’m drinking NLCS tears and I don’t want to drink those tears this fall. Fuck that and go Cubs.