PUTY’S WORLD CUP PREVIEW (presented by Barstool) – Groups G & H

Sam's Army6/12/2018 7:35 PM

Sam’s Safe Space for Soccer Stoolies

Hello again haters (and lovers) of Jogo Bonito,

Six groups down and two more to go with these pre-tournament previews. I am DYING for the World Cup to start but we still got a couple more days before a ball is kicked. In the meantime, here are the previous rundowns of Groups A/B, C/D and E/F to help occupy your mind:

PUTY’S WORLD CUP PREVIEW (presented by Barstool) – Groups A & B

PUTY’S WORLD CUP PREVIEW (presented by Barstool) – Groups C & D

PUTY’S WORLD CUP PREVIEW (presented by Barstool) – Groups E & F

Also, because Barstool is the fastest growing multi-media conglomerate in the universe (rough approximation), the big brains in the C-suite decided to green light a podcast and gave me marching orders to go scrounge up as many listeners as possible in order to prove that there is a demand for more soccer content… so please do me a big big huge favor and convince everybody you know to SUBSCRIBE, DOWNLOAD and leave a HOWEVER-MANY-STAR REVIEW (as long as it is *five*):

iTunes (Apple): click here

iHeart (Droid): click here [Note: Spotify is “working” on getting the podcast up there… hopefully it will be soon!]

Shouts to everybody who has already done so. I haven’t checked on it today but, in what I can only describe as a true non-Christmas miracle, the podcast made it up to #2 in the “Sports & Rec” rankings yesterday… it’s probably some sort of mistake, but I ain’t complaining… so here’s hoping we can push it to #1 today – if only for a millisecond so I can get a screenshot to tape to mama’s fridge:

Either way though I really can’t thank y’all enough. Soccer has come a long, longggggggg way around here in the (almost precisely) four years that I’ve been grinding away on blogs, and the fact a podcast – even a limited-run version for the World Cup (ideally a test balloon, but who knows?) – saw the light of day, let alone is doing some good early numbers, is a serious testament to you guys clicking and reading and following and now listening, etc. So here’s an internet hug for each and every one of you.

Okay, that’s every last ounce of feels I’ve got room for in my cold, black, Tottenham-and-USMNT-scarred heart. Now let’s move along to what you came here for in the first place… Groups G & H!

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GROUP G – Classic case of Bourgeoisie vs Proletariats

[Reminder: teams appear in the order of how I think they will finish in the group… in case that wasn’t already obvious]

ENGLAND (1st)
FIFA rank: 13
Best finish: Champions (1966)
2014 finish: Ground stage

The team is a lot like Belgium – only even more Spursy! Indeed, there are more Tottenham players – five – on England for this tournament than any other club (nosing out both City and United with four each). Are you thinking what I’m thinking? Damn right: get ready to hang some banners, baby, and lots of ‘em!

The team is young and talented, and playing in the intense spotlight of the rough n’ rowdy EPL week in and week out means the players are unlikely to be in awe of the moment. If there is a weak spot in the team, aside from the potential for massive blunders from defenders – Kyle Walker (D – City) possibly playing at CB, what could possibly go wrong? – is in the middle of the field where the team is particularly thin. Suffice to say that Dele Alli (MF – Tottenham) is going to need to be 2016-17 Dele and not 2017-18 Dele.

Key players: Harry Kane (F – Tottenham) was in great form for most of the season but picked up an ankle injury and faltered down the stretch. If he is not 100% healthy England are d-e-a-d – dead, dead, DEAD.

Red flag: Spurs. Way, way, WAY too many Spurs. Also, the crippling weight of expectations and a fanatical fanbase that is already 500% convinced that a gut-wrenching collapse is a matter of if not when.

WORST CASE: Never ever ever say never when it comes to England imploding and failing to get out of the group, but on paper they have way too much talent not to make it to the knockouts so I’m going against my better instinct and saying worst case is R16.
BEST CASE: This one is tougher. Part of me thinks that England legitimately has the talent – if the moons and stars and planets align – to win it all, or at least make it to the final. At the same time, I am willing to acknowledge that could be shaded by my unconscious pro-EPL bias, which I will try to consciously counteract by changing my best-case scenario to making the semifinals.

BELGIUM (2nd)
FIFA rank: 3
Best finish: 4th place (1986)
2014 finish: Quarterfinals (lost to Argentina)

Put up or shut up time for Belgium’s golden generation, many of whom will past their prime in WC22. The team is full of talent and is brimming with confidence after rolling through qualifying largely unmolested.

On their day, Belgium’s best XI could beat just about anybody. Unfortunately they will not have their best XI available, both because Radja Nainggolan (MF – Roma) was inexplicably left at home in favor of Mighty Mighty Marouane Fellaini (Bench – United), and because Vincent Kompany (D – City) hasn’t been fully healthy since he popped out of Mama Kompany’s womb.

Vincent Kompany in his natural state

Key players: Eden Hazard (MF – Chelsea) and Kevin De Bruyne (MF – City) are both world class talents but have not always complemented – let alone supplemented – one another in their times playing together. If they can get on the same page though, look out.

Red flag: Similar to neighbors France, there are always whispers about Belgium mental fortitude. A lot of people question whether Roberto Martinez, for as nice as he is, will be the coach to get the most out of the players. Also, with Vertonghen, Alderweireld and Mousa Dembele (MF – Tottenham, for the moment), the team is a little lot too Spursy to actually win something, I mean, right?

WORST CASE: Anything short of the quarterfinals for this group would be a massive failure
BEST CASE: They definitely have the physical talent to win it all. Bit of a toss-up on who wins the group but I’m going with England, with Nainggolan’s absence (and tastier odds) being the tiebreaker. [Note: in a strange bit of circumstance, though I went with England first in the group, if I were to pick which team is more likely to make it to the semifinals… I’d probably lean towards with Belgium because of the Brazil-less draw they are likely to face.]

TUNISIA (3rd)
FIFA rank: 14 (highest for African team)
Best finish: Group stage
2014 finish: DNQ (last qualified in 2006)

A brutal draw was apparently the soccer gods way of counterbalancing what was Tunisia’s embarrassingly easy qualifying group.

One can’t help thinking that – like a more unwitting, less calculated Switzerland – their gaudy FIFA ranking is a bit artificial. Team is consistently solid from front to back but no players really stand out, meaning no real difference makers to grab a deadlocked game by the scruff of the neck.

Key players: Youssef Msakni (F – Al Duhail in Qatar) is the team’s most dangerous striker… alas, he’s been ruled out with a knee injury, which kinds tells you all you need to know about what to expect from Tunisia going forward. Not a good sign when your most creative player – MF Wahbi Khazri – couldn’t hold down a spot in the starting XI for Sunderland last season. You mean the Sunderland that got relegated (two-for-two!) from the Championship? Yep, that Sunderland.

Red flag: RAMADAN… the holy month when Muslims fast during the day finishes up just as the World Cup starts, but that doesn’t mean an entire month of less-than-ideal eating habits won’t to be a complication for certain teams. These include Egypt, Morocco and Saudi Arabia, but (reportedly) Tunisia has the most players who have said they are giving all glory to non-soccer god and are not breaking their religious fast just on account of the little old World Cup. That could be a serious problem. [Note: there are plenty of others like Mesut Ozil, Eden Hazard and Paul Pogba among them, who are also Muslim, though it is unclear how many of them will choose to fast (Ozil, for example, said he will be eating per usual)… just an FYI, it’s not just the North African and Middle Eastern teams that are potentially affected.]

Perhaps good for the soul. Not necessarily the body.

BEST/WORST CASE: Barring an inexplicable Tottenham-esque flop from one of the two favorites, this has group stage exit written all over it for Tunisia.

PANAMA (4th)
FIFA rank: 55
Best finish: N/A
2014 finish: DNQ (first appearance)

This is the USMNT’s slot – not that I’m bitter. They ended up qualifying thanks to a goal that didn’t even go in the goal – not that I’m bitter.

For the record, I’ve got no ill will against Panama. Good for them. The fact the USMNT was even in that position is embarrassing enough, but if you can’t get a point against T&T to secure your own ticket to the World Cup then you quite simply don’t deserve to be there. We don’t deserve to be there.

So, kudos to Panama. Snake it til they made it, after all. Unfortunately the tournament itself is unlikely to turn out quite so well for Panama.

Key player: Roman Torres (D – Seattle) is a big, burly CB who a lot of US fans will no doubt recognize but is on the wrong side of 30 at this point… and – spoiler alert – he ain’t alone.

Red flag: Blas Perez (F – Municipal in Guatemala) is a local legend but old boy is also 37 years old. That might work against Trinidad and Tobago. Belgium and England? Good luck with that.

BEST/WORST CASE: Bye, Felicia

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GROUP H – perhaps most evenly matched group

COLOMBIA (1st)
FIFA rank: 16
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2014)
2014 finish: Quarterfinals

Solid backline, solid midfield with at least one difference maker in “Hah-Mess” Rodriguez (Bayern), a wildcard in Juan Cuadrado (Juventus) and a possible diamond in the rough in DM Wilmar Barrios (Boca Juniors). However, there are questions about where the goals are going to come from if not from midfielders. Radamel Falcao was in incredible form coming into the 2014 tournament but picked up an injury just beforehand and missed out. This time around he is 32 and not nearly as dynamic. Father Time can be a real skank sometimes.

Key player: Rodriguez was THE breakout star of the 2014 World Cup, which is used as a launching pad to big money deals at Real Madrid and more recent Bayern. He will be looked upon as to lead the time this time around.

Red flag/weakness: Scoring goals, especially from open play.

WORST CASE: A strike force led by Falcao (or Villarreal’s Carlos Bacca) might get it done in the group stage but I have serious doubts about how much of a threat they will be in the knockouts. So I’ll say worst case is R16…
BEST CASE: They have the top-end talent to compete with the upper crust of international soccer society but I’m not sure they have the depth, so it’s hard to imagine Colombia getting past the quarterfinals.

SENEGAL (2nd)
FIFA rank: 28
Best finish: Quarterfinals (2002)
2014 finish: DNQ (last qualified in 2002)

Team doesn’t seem to get much credit, perhaps because their dominance of a weak qualifying group wasn’t seen as all that impressive (including a ridiculous situation where they lost to South Africa but the match was later replayed after the referee was found guilty of match fixing), but make no mistake: this team has a lot of talent.

They have experience up and down the field with Kalidou Koulibaly (D – Napoli) anchoring the defense, Idrissa Gueye (MF – Everton) and Cheikhou Kouyate (MF – West Ham) in the middle, and Sadio Mane (MF/F – Liverpool) running rampant around and through opposing defenses.

Key player: Mane obviously had a very solid season for the Reds but Mo Salah’s brilliance and Firmino’s tireless running helped overshadowed some inconsistency on the part of the streaky Senegalese winger. I’ve long been a fan of Mane’s game but it remains to be seen how reliable he will be against top flight competition while not benefiting from defenders being distracted by Salah.

Red flag: Despite loads of talent, the players have a curious knack for playing significantly better for club than for country, which does not exactly instill confidence heading into the World Cup. [Note: If we’re being honest, this is what kept me from picking Senegal to top the group.]

WORST CASE: Poland and Colombia are no joke so failing to get out of the group is not at all farfetched.
BEST CASE: On the other hand, given the evenly distributed talent throughout the side, I gotta admit I kinda like Senegal as a deep sleeping darkhorse in this tournament. To win it? Nah, but taking a flyer on them to win the group would not be even close to the dumbest thing you did all day. Unfortunately they could face Brazil in the quarterfinals, which would inevitably be a tough matchup, but I’d at least given them a fighting chance. Picking them to win would take bigger balls than I have been blessed with, however, so I’ll say best case is a run to the quarterfinals.

POLAND (3rd)
FIFA rank: 10
Best finish: 3rd place (1974, 1982)
2014 finish: DNQ (last qualified in 2006)

Truefact: no team with this many K’s or W’s has ever won the World Cup.

Poland rolled through qualifying, winning eight out of 10 games thanks to 16 goals from Robert Lewandowski (F – Bayern). He is one of the best pure goal-scorers in the game and when he scores he tends to score in bunches. The flipside of that is he is also prone to droughts.

Team is built on solid defense and a workmanlike midfield that kicks it somewhere in the vicinity of Lewandowski and hope he makes magic happen.

Key player: This may come as a surprise but Lewandowski will be the key to Poland sneaking into the knockouts, where they are almost certain to face a Tottenham-heavy team (Spurs-A or Spurs-B), meaning anything can happen. The problem is Lewa – for all his goal-scoring prowess – has had a tendency to shrivel under the spotlight of big games… or perhaps he’s just allergic to Real Madrid? Who knows, but either way WC18 is put-up-or-shut-up time for the big man. I am personally a big fan of watching him do his thing and he is still at the peak of his powers so I am quietly rooting for him to have a good tournament to erase (most of) the memories of various disappointing Euro and Champions League outings.

Red flag: Poland can talk all they want about being more than Lewandowski but unless/until somebody else steps up and produces that is all it is… talk.

BEST CASE: A quarterfinals run seems possible in an absolute blue sky situation (though R16 seems more likely if we’re being honest)
WORST CASE: On the flipside, the Poles could easily get pipped by Senegal for the second qualifying spot out of the group.

JAPAN (4th)
FIFA rank: 60
Best finish: R16
2014 finish: Group stage

They have some talent with guys like Shinji Kagawa (MF – Dortmund) and Shinjji Okazaki (MF – Lester) and are usually a threat to outwork and outlast opponents. Unfortunately this team is still largely that same team that used to do that… only a lot older. Not a good recipe.

Key players: Neither of the Shinji’s had a stellar 2017-18 season but both will need to have big tournaments if Japan is going to do anything. Okazaki will likely start up top since Keisuke Honda (ex-AC Milan now with Pachuca) just doesn’t have the legs he used to – think Landon Donovan had LD not been left at home by Klinsmann in 2014. Kagawa is the team’s best playmaker and will need to play about three levels higher than what he showed for BVB most of this season.

Red flag: There are two big warning signs coming into big tournaments. The first is a sudden coaching change just ahead of the tournament, usually suggesting turmoil behind the scenes and leading to tactical upheaval. The second is being too reliant on aging veterans. Japan ticks both boxes. No bueno!

Fearsome… back in the day

BEST CASE: Roughly a 0.2% chance of making it to the R16 at the very, very, very, veeeeery best.
WORST CASE: Red flags galore means I’d give the (Aging) Samurai Blue a very strong to extremely strong 99.8% chance of a group stage exit. [Might be a little harsh but nobody got rich slanging lukewarm tkaes.]

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So there we have it. The last of the four group previews. Planning to post the world’s worst knockout stage predictions tomorrow morning, followed by a little handy dandy guide to picking a (second) favorite team to root for in the World Cup. If I get around to it I might even mess around and launch a Pick’Em Tournament – if people would be interested.

I don’t know, we’ll see about that. Either way RIGHT HERE RIGHT NOW is precisely the time that you need start fluffing your sports boner in preparation for the great sporting event known to man…. and no better way to do so than download/subscribe/review/etc/etc to by far the best soccer-related podcast Barstool has ever come out with: PUTY’S WORLD CUP PODCAST (reminder: links up above).

Anyway, that’s all I got for not. Planning to try and do very short, very brief posts each night during the tournament in order to help get your mind (and bets) right for the games on deck the following morning. So don’t you worry your pretty little selves about missing me too much. You can try to get away from me all you want for the next month or so, but…