2018 Boston Red Sox Spring Training Storylines -- The Rotation
Here we go. It’s a brand new season with brand new storylines for your 2018 Boston Red Sox. Every year, we break it up between the rotation, the bullpen, the infield, the outfield, and the bench. After adding Chris Sale prior to the 2017 season, we started with the rotation last year. Even though the Red Sox brought back essentially the same exact rotation as a year ago, they’re still the team’s number one strength, so let’s start there.
Chris Sale — The Red Sox are about to embark on their 118th season as a major league franchise, and here is a list of Red Sox pitchers who have struck out at least 300 batters in a single season — Pedro Martinez in 1999, Chris Sale last season, end list. Whenever a star player is acquired by the Red Sox, the speculation starts immediately — can he perform in Boston? Can he handle the media? Can he handle the fans? Can he live up to the expectations? Unfortunately, more often than not, the answer to that question is no. But for Sale, it was a resounding affirmative that nearly landed him his first career Cy Young award.
Now, you’d probably look at that and think, “Wow! Guy finished runner-up for the Cy Young award. That’s a hell of a year!” Well, yeah. It was. Of course it was. But it was also somewhat of a tale of two seasons for Sale, although you’d have to note that it was not evenly split. Over Sale’s first 21 starts of the season, he had a 2.37, which led the American League and 211 strikeouts, which led the majors. Over his final 11 starts of the season, Sale posted a 4.09 ERA, although he still had the second most strikeouts in the majors over that span.
Is there anything that the Red Sox can do to prevent Sale’s second half slide from happening again, as it had previously also happened in Chicago? Is there any way that Sale can come close to repeating the success that he had a year ago? After getting rocked for seven earned runs in his lone postseason start last October, are we headed towards another “Player X can’t hack it in the postseason” narrative here in Boston?
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David Price — I literally have no idea what to expect from David Price in 2018. Is that exciting? Maybe? Is that terrifying? Kind of? I mean, a year ago, we were talking about whether or not Price was going to need Tommy John surgery and how he could possibly miss the entire 2017 season and half of the 2018 season. He, instead, missed about two thirds of the 2017 season as a starting pitcher and came out of the bullpen from mid-September through the end of Boston’s brief postseason run.
The encouraging sign with Price was that his velocity was great at the end of the year, and he was able to pitch back-to-back days for multiple innings out of the bullpen. Oh, and he was phenomenal in the postseason. That would seem to indicate that there were no elbow issues the last time we saw the left-hander in action. Now, how the elbow holds up over the grind of 32 starts and 200-plus innings remains to be seen. It’s kind of a ride it ’til the wheels fall off type deal, because Price has said that he’s not opting out and the Red Sox can’t send a guy to the operating table who, on the surface, appears to be healthy at the moment.
Aside from the elbow, the other thing that will be drawing much attention in regards to Price will be his attitude. It’s been somewhat of a bumpy ride for Price since he got to Boston. He’s had his run-ins with media members, experienced backlash from fans, etc. According to him, he wants to move past that and focus more on being a positive influence. Great. Let’s see that. But will he actually stop shooting himself in the foot this year? Will he be able to make at least 30 starts? If he does, will fans be pleased with the results? And another year of, can Price finally shake his postseason demons?
Rick Porcello — Yeah, it’s not 2016 anymore. The good will that Porcello had built up during his Cy Young season two years ago is now gone. What we’ve got now is a three-year sample in Boston where the right-hander stunk in 2015, albeit while battling injuries. He was fantastic in 2016, and then led the league in losses last year. Two stinkers and one great season. That ain’t gonna cut it in Boston. And he can thank David Price for showing up, because literally nobody talks about the fact that Porcello is making north of $21 million this year. Compared to what aces are making, it fits. He’s a very solid number three starter. But Boston fans love to complain about contracts, and I feel like Porcello skates from an investment standpoint.
That being said, there’s no reason why he can’t have a bounceback season, but that begs the question of what a bounceback season would even look like for Porcello. His Cy Young season was an aberration, and I’m sure he’d even admit that. But I don’t think he’s as bad as he was last season. Hell, I’d even take an ERA in the high 3’s, low 4’s from Porcello. You’ll also notice that he’s developed quite a trend over the last five years. Here are his ERAs starting with 2013 — 4.32, 3.43, 4.92, 3.15, 4.65. He’s an every other year guy, and this is supposed to be a good year.
Can Rick Porcello put up a sub-four ERA this year? Will he reclaim Cy Young form? Will he be a complete dumpster fire? Who the fuck knows!
Drew Pomeranz — Oh, Dwew. I’ve grown to love this guy. I don’t know why. I love a player who can come in to a new city, a big market, suck when he first gets there, and then shove it up everybody’s ass instead of folding and crying like a bitch. Cough, Carl Crawford, cough. Porcello did it, although, like we just discussed, he regressed after his “fuck you, I’m actually good” season. I’ve been hard on Pomeranz, and most of it was justified. He went through a prolonged stretch where he had the lowest innings per start in the American League and then threw a hissy fit with John Farrell for removing him from a game when he had no ground to stand on whatsoever. But that’s when he took off and had one hell of a season last year.
If you’ve been reading me for a while, then you know that I’m a big believer in average game score to evaluate a starting pitcher’s performance. Pomeranz was 11th in the American League in average game score last season. Pretty good for a guy that most everyone, myself included, thought was a dud after coming to Boston in a trade in the summer of 2016. He adjusted and proved to be one of Boston’s most dependable starters in 2017, but can he do that again? He was removed from his most recent spring training appearance with forearm tightness, which makes everyone panic because forearm tightness is a precursor to Tommy John surgery. However, he was removed from a start last season with forearm tightness and still made his next start.
So, we’re gonna go with, can Pomeranz stay healthy? Can he build off of his 2017 season? Can he maybe, possibly, hopefully average at least 6 innings per start? That’d be nice.
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Eduardo Rodriguez — I used to hate the comparisons to Clay Buchholz that Eduardo Rodriguez would get, but now they’re more than fair. Buchholz, I think, had more of a mental aspect to his inconsistencies, but the injuries were certainly there as well. With Rodriguez, since the second he got here, we’ve been dealing with injuries, pitch-tipping and the lack of developing a third pitch. You can’t be a two-pitch pitcher in the American League as a starter. You just can’t. And you also can’t tell the hitters what you’re about to throw them when they already know that it’s either a fastball or a changeup. He needs to use his slider more, and he needs to not have his knee explode all the time. If he can do that, then he’s the man for the fifth starter spot.
Unfortunately, like Steven Wright, he’s not going to be ready for the start of the season, but perhaps that’s a good thing. Get healthy, eliminate the pitch-tipping once and for all — perhaps Alex Cora can help with that since the Houston Astros had a ton of data on pitchers tipping their pitches — and I’ll honestly be happy with 20-ish starts from Rodriguez this year. They have a decent amount of depth to fill in the gaps with Steven Wright, Brian Johnson, and Hector Velazquez. Is Roenis Elias still a thing?
I know it feels like this might not be the case, but Rodriguez actually hasn’t made less than 20 starts in a season since making his major league debut for the Red Sox in 2015. It’s just a matter of whether or not those 20-plus starts are good enough to give the Red Sox a chance to win. He’s usually very hit or miss. He’ll either carry a no-hitter into the 6th inning or later, or get shelled for six earned runs. No in between with this guy. Can Rodriguez have a season of full health? No, because he’s already missing the start of the year. But can he stay healthy once he returns? Probably not, but we’ll see!
We’ll be looking at the storylines for the 2018 Boston Red Sox infielders tomorrow. Stay tuned.