Celtics/Sixers Is Going To Be A Bloodbath, Here's How The Celts Can Pull It Out
The day has finally arrived. After months and months of trash talk on Twitter, the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers will meet for the first time since 2012, a series in which the Celtics won in 7 games. The two teams are drastically different this time around, and while for years the internet made jokes about the Sixers health, it’s the Celtics that enter this series basically missing their entire roster, while the Sixers are completely healthy. It’s because of that fact that the Sixers are rightfully favored in this series, and why I’ve been seeing the narrative that Celtics fans shouldn’t worry, that the team is playing with no pressure given the talent they are missing.
I say fuck that.
Playing without Hayward and Kyrie is nothing new. We’ve seen this team play well and beat pretty damn good teams, so I’m rejecting that notion that now all the sudden it’s a big deal. You want to talk about missing Jaylen, a guy that had been the leading scorer for the Celts this postseason sure, but he’ll be back eventually. And even with everyone missing, this team can still beat the Sixers. They have home court, they have the defense, and they have the coaching to get it done. Will it be hard? Absolutely. Is there real concern as to how on earth they are going to score? Yeah but how is that any different from any other Celtics game ever? I reject the notion that this series is over before it even starts, and allow me to explain my reasoning. If the Celtics are going to pull this off and return to the Eastern Conference Finals for the second year in a row, this is what they need to do….
Advertisement
1. Contain Joel Embiid
No shit right? Great blog Greenie what insight! But hear me out, we all know Joel Embiid is a stud. A true basketball unicorn, and he’s been playing great all season. At the same time, the Celtics are one of the few teams that have both the scheme and the talent to give him fits defensively. The numbers don’t lie, in three games against the Celtics this season, here’s how Embiid has looked
Game 1: 4-16 shooting (25%)
Game 2: 6-17 shooting (35%)
Game 3: 10-19 shooting (52%)
Now while it’s unfair to just assume Embiid is the same player today that he was earlier in the year, there are things you can take away from those matchups and apply to this series. For example, Embiid showed he struggled with how the Celtics chose to double him. Sending guys at different times to confuse him, from multiple angles and in an inconsistent pattern. The Celtics have the benefit of being able to match up with Embiid no matter how he wants to play. If he wants to use his size and strength to bully you, that’s where the Celtics can throw Baynes on him. Sometimes the Sixers will give Embiid the ball and space and clear out, allowing him to build momentum while attacking the rim. For this they can use Horford, who just went through a similar assignment with the Bucks. Horford plays Embiid about as well as any big in the league, and has just the smarts and lateral quickness to make things difficult.
If it were me, I would try and get Embiid on the left side as much as possible, for some reason he showed trouble in that area during the Heat series, so I would do everything I could to force the Sixers to swing the ball and have him end up on that side.
Embiid is going to get his points and rebounds, you can’t stop that. The key is to make it as inefficient as possible, which is something the Celtics have had success with.
2. Pick your poison with Simmons and stick to it
You really have two choices when it comes to Ben Simmons. You can choose to back off him and give him space hoping he shoots, but that is a risky move. We haven’t seen Simmons fall for that yet, instead choosing to either use that space to help create for others, or use it as a way to get into the paint where he is an unstoppable scorer.
Your other choice is to play him tight, and live with him beating you at the rim through contact. I think for the Celtics to be successful at containing Simmons, they need to look exactly at what they did with Giannis. It’s fair to say that Simmons is not the scorer/shooter that Giannis is, but their styles are very similar. They want to get into the paint as often as possible.
This is where the Celtics depth comes into play. They can throw everyone from Smart, to Morris to Semi on Simmons, and I would imagine Semi gets the first crack. A guy that shut Giannis down as well as anyone could imagine, he’ll have a similar responsibility in this series. The thing with Simmons is he’s going to want to back you down and use his strength to overpower you. Something tells me this guy is going to be ready for the challenge
Celtics fans need to be careful with the idea that magically Brad is going to figure out how to stop Simmons just because he can’t shoot. MIA certainly didn’t show us anything as to how to do it, and in looking at Simmons’ production in the first round, there really is one thing you have to do. Just keep him out of the restricted area.
You can let him get into the paint, as he shoots just 25% in the paint (non restricted area). Bump him out to midrange and it’s 33%. That is why the defense Semi played on Giannis will come in handy. As long as Semi doesn’t bite for fakes and uses his strength to keep him around 5-10 feet from the basket, you severely limit Simmons’ scoring output. If you let him get to the rim, it’s a wrap for you because he basically finishes like Lebron.
Advertisement
3. Limit transition opportunities
Again, very similar to MIL in this regard. The Sixers play with the fastest pace of any playoff team at 102.99, so the key for the Celtics is to make them play at your speed, which is near the bottom of the pace rankings. If you turn it over against PHI and let them get out on the break, it’s curtains for you. They are also 2nd in the playoffs in terms of points off turnovers, and they use that to help build their momentum, usually with some transition threes from guys like Redick or Belinelli. Limit your turnovers and make an effort to get back in transition and you really take away a key part of the Sixers offense.
4. Lock down the perimeter
This takes a slight hit with no Jaylen, but I expect the Celtics to continue to defend the three point line at a high level. They held MIL to 37% shooting from deep, and it’s only that high because Khris Middleton still hasn’t missed. This is an area that PHI has a little tougher time with, as the Heat shot 39%, but to me this is the key to the whole series.
The Sixers made 11.4 3PM a game in their opening series, which is 2nd only trailing HOU. They shot 36% and are loaded with shooters. Guys like Redick, Covington, Saric, Belinelli, Ilyasova, are all capable shooters and the three point shot accounts for 37.8% of the Sixers FGA. We just saw in the final meeting between these two teams what they can do on the perimeter. The good news is, now with Smart back, this team has the guard depth to give those guys fits. If you limit their production from the 3pt line, you take away a major weapon. You won’t shut them out completely, but as long as you don’t do what MIA did and have games where the Sixers are making 18 3PM, you have a chance.
5. Utilize the Sixers youth
Here’s what I mean by this. This Sixers are a young emotional group, especially Embiid. They look for the big momentum play and cannot wait to trash talk once they get it, especially on the defensive end. That is why if I’m the Celtics, I make it a point of emphasis to utilize the pump fake. Use Embiid’s young excitement against him, because you KNOW he’s going to bite on every fake so he can get that monster block. This is especially important for guys like Horford. Show patience on the offensive end and because from a talent perspective the Celts have nothing to match up, but from a smarts perspective they have the advantage. I will be very disappointed if we see the Celtics attack guys like Simmons and Embiid without fakes.
6. Do not even think of relying on isolation
We know this is the kiss of death for the Celtics, and the worst thing they can do is try that shit against the Sixers. The defense PHI is playing right now is no joke, they have the 2nd best Drtg among playoff teams and they are the best team in the league at defending at the rim. So in other words, if you do nothing but hold the ball and try and attack the basket yourself, the Sixers and Embiid will eat you alive.
You know where the Sixers really struggle? Guarding the corners. You know who is awesome at shooting from the corners? The Celtics. You know how you get more open corner looks? Through ball movement. The Sixers hold opponents to a playoff best 38% from the field when the shot clock is between 7-4 seconds. Even more proof that if we see guys like Rozier or Tatum hold the ball for the majority of the clock, bad things are going to happen.
7. Win the bench battle
A lot will be made about the starting units, but I could argue that it’s the benches that may end up being more important to either team. On the Celtics side, now that they are shorthanded, guys like Smart and Morris become even more important. They need to win their matchup against Belinelli/Ilyasova. Those two have been lights out for the Sixers and a true difference, while the guys for the Celts have been…..slightly below average.
While Belinelli is more a one dimensional player, it’s known Celtics killer Ilyasova that gives me more concern. He can kill you on the boards, from deep, and much like Smart is always looking to draw a charge. The Celtics have to be aware of this whenever they attack the rim, because they do not have the bodies available to get into any sort of early foul trouble. How Morris/Smart handle things mentally could not be more important.
Advertisement
8. Communicate off screens
No team in the playoffs scores more points coming off screens in terms of total points (99) than the Sixers and they are 2nd points per possession (1.43). Not even GS. The Sixers shoot 57% off screens and have an insane 11.6% scoring frequency off them. This means the Celtics are going to have to figure out how they are going to deal with this, most likely switching. That means communication on the defensive end becomes critical, and considering the Celts gave up 51% shooting when opposing players took 0 dribbles, this is going to have to be a lot better if they want to win this series. JJ Redick and Belinelli curls are going to be coming, so they better figure that shit out.
9. Just win all your home games
Who needs to win on the road? Not the Celtics. Just win every game at home and you have nothing to worry about. That’s the beauty of having home court advantage, so don’t fuck it up because the Celtics have shown no ability to win on the road. In fact, dating back to last year, they have just 1 playoff road win in their last 8 tries. For some reason this team looks completely different at home, so just please don’t go dicking around and dropping games at the Garden. Please.
Like I said earlier, both of these fanbases have been foaming at the mouth for this matchup. I imagine both have plenty of Twitter joke ammo ready to go. This series is Chapter 1 of what should be a decade long rivalry, as both cities think their team is poised to rule the East moving forward. This may be the Sixers best chance to get past the Celtics, as things will look much different moving forward with Kyrie/Hayward back, but at the end of the day the Celtics are in a comfortable position. Everybody has been picking against them all year, and look where they are. I cannot fucking wait.
Official Greenie Prediction: Celtics in 7