Barstool’s Weekend Soccer Preview – The “London's Top 4-Decisional Dærby” Edition

Sam's Army3/30/2018 7:26 PM

Sam's Safe Space For Soccer Stoolies

Hi haters,

Good news: the single worst international break in history is officially behind us. Even better news: it’s time to fire up another dose of the goodgood

because soccer is BACK and I need a gotdamn fix BAD!

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ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE

Reminder of what is still out there to play for right now:

TITLE: technically it is still “up for grabs” kinda like how Arsenal is still “mathematically” alive for a top four finish… but in truth both questions were answered long ago. The simple math is that City needs to win two more games to clinch.

TOP FOUR: City is in (no doy), United has one foot in, Liverpool is on the doorstep, while Spurs will either be in a dogfight or be sitting pretty all depending on how this weekend’s game with Chelsea turns out

RELEGATION: Dead Brom is, well, deader than dead. As for who is “in danger” at the moment, it’d take a lot less time to name the clubs that are NOT in danger. Brighton has been hot of late and is currently six points – meaning two full wins – out of the dropzone, and yet they have a rough final stretch (last four games: Spurs, Burnley, United and Liverpool) that could easily drag them back into danger. So what I am saying is that there are EIGHT clubs fighting to avoid TWO relegation spots. Last couple months finna be exciting.

Scores from the last time a ball was kicked in anger (aka a million years ago – in part because the last matchday was interrupted by FA Cup quarterfinals):

News, notes, observations, highlights & lowlights:

- FA Cup results were about as boring as they possibly could have been with all four favorites advancing. Yawn.

- Pray for the “Sam hates Liverpool” haterz

- Everybody and their mother despises international breaks but know who didn’t hate it this time? The one and only West Ham, which was on the verge of imploding in a ball of rage when last we checked in on them. Will two weeks off have helped calmed things down? Probably not, but maaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe…

- Stoke is a case of lies, damn lies and statistics. The club has the worst defensive record in the league, and yet defensively they have been surprisingly good over the last couple of months conceding just six goals in their last five games… which really just goes to show how SHITE they were from August through January (conceding 52 in their first 26 games). Their talent and recent form suggests they should climb out of the drop zone, but they are looking at a tough finishing stretch with every game against either a Big Six or another desperate relegation battler.

- Palace is another squad that is too damn good to be where they are right now. then again, that's the risk you take by starting the season with about a thousand straight (scoreless) losses.

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POWER RANKINGS

TOP 4

1. City

2. Liverpool

3. United

4. Tottenham

Honorable mention: Chelsea, Burnley, Arsenal

BOTTOM 3

20. Dead Brom

19. West Ham

18. Huddersfield

Dishonorable mention: Stoke, Southampton

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Table as it stands now:

And this weekend’s schedule:

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PICKS OF THE WEEKEND

Chelsea [+130]

Tottenham [+205]

Draw [+235]

Spurs win and the top four is all set. Chelsea win and it’s a dogfight between these two and posssssssssibly Liverpool – only because they still have to worry about Champions League. Draw is a small victory for Spurs, but would leave the door open for a late charge from Chelsea or (more likely) a patented late season collapse.

Fun fact: last time Tottenham won at Stamford Bridge the internet had not yet been invented.

[caption id="attachment_964254" align="alignnone" width="227"] Ur welcome[/caption]

What does it have to do with this weekend’s game? Not a whole helluva lot. But one thing that does have an impact on the game:

Yep, that, which means that Tottenham will inevitably come out much more defensively than they otherwise would, likely meaning Son will reprise his “false 9” role in which he has been remarkably productive (and another reason the Silent Smiling South Korean Assassin continues to be ridiculously underrated).

Chelsea is facing some injury concerns of their own though, with doubts about whether Thibault Courtois and Andreas Christensen will be ready to go. The biggest question is whether Conte goes with Alvaro Morata or Olivier Giroud or neither up top.

[caption id="attachment_964279" align="alignnone" width="200"]Whenever Conte looks at the bench and calls for a striker[/caption]

My guess is he will revert back to Morata despite his little boy haircut and woeful form for much of the season, and the last few months in particular.

I’m going to be painfully honest with you, dear reader, I don’t hate Tottenham’s chances this weekend. The team is different without Kane, in part because opponents tend to respect them less and push more numbers forward (wing backs especially), but Spurs have shown the ability to circle the wagons and make do with what they got. In fact, if I were forced to pick one club to win it’d probably be the visitors… but this being Spurs and Spurs having a fetish for both making things difficult on themselves and racking up moral (but not necessarily literal) victories, this one smells a lot like a 1-1 draw.

Everton [+800]

City [-315]

Draw [+400]

One risk for a team like City, where their entire squad plays for somebody’s national team, is that they will be hit with a bunch of injuries over the international break, which – let’s be serious – would be the only way they are dropping (more) points to an Everton squad that started making tee times at least a month ago.

Welp, that about settles that then. City to win 3-1.

[Note: a win on Saturday would give Pep & His People an opportunity to clinch the league next week. Hm. Just for shits and giggles, does anybody happen to know off hand who City play next weekend?]

[caption id="attachment_964307" align="alignnone" width="217"]Rut roh[/caption]

West Ham [+180]

Southampton [+165]

Draw [+200]

In terms of drama, this may be the best game of the weekend – and h/t to NBC for throwing it on the old telly (on CNBC) for us to watch.

And watch you should because West Ham is in a bad, badddddddddd spot right now with legitimately everybody – players, management and (especially) fans – all seemingly ready to throw hands with everybody else.

The club has been forced to institute “beefed up security” measures based on the rash of field invasions over the last couple games.

[caption id="attachment_964257" align="alignnone" width="349"]London Stadium on Saturday[/caption]

A lot of people like to talk about the first goal in this or that game being important, and that is often true as far as how a game plays out, but you could make an argument that the first goal scored in this game may dictate the future of an entire club. If the Hammies get it, perhaps people will settle down a little bit (assuming they don’t immediately concede two in short succession). If Southampton scores first, yiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiikes.

Southampton have lost 16 out of their last 17 league games, and yet they are still somehow the better team right now. If they played 10 times on a neutral field, I’d take the Saints to win five and draw two. Since they are instead playing in what could easily turn into an extremely anti-Hammies stadium, I’d probably add one to each – meaning Southampton would win (six) or draw (three) nine out of 10 games.

But maybe because of how bad the Saints’ defense looked against Newcastle in a similarly high-pressure road game, or maybe because it is only a matter of time until Lanzini (assuming he’s okay after picking up a slight injury for Argentina), Mario and Arnautovic have to do something good – even if on accident, or maybe because I am a romantic… but I like the Hammies this weekend. West Ham to win 2-1.

[caption id="attachment_964258" align="alignnone" width="228"]Updated for accuracy[/caption]

Other picks:

• PALACE vs LIVERPOOL: with a top four finish all but locked down, it’d be hard to blame Klopp & Co. for having one eye on the first leg against City in the Champions League quarterfinal next Wednesday. Palace have played a bunch of teams tough with almost nothing to show for it of late. Might just be time they snuck one out (and odds of +500 make it pretty tempting to take a flyer on them). Scared money don’t make money. Palace to win 3-2. [Update: Zaha is not "out" just "questionable"... if he is in fact left out of the XII then that, needless to say, would make an upset a lot less interesting/likely.]

• UNITED vs SWANSEA: Wah-hey-heyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy would you look that! In a shocking turn of events, a coach tells Paul Pogba to go out and make things happen offensively and Paul Pogba goes out and makes things happen offensively. Alas, one guess as to who that coach was NOT:

Correct! It was France’s Didier Deschamps. Will Jozay follow suit? Probably not. Both teams are likely gonna play ugly in this one – Swansea because they have to and United because they are conditioned to at this point. The Red Devils’ offense is too often reliant on moments of individual brilliance or mistakes from opponents. Swans have been remarkably good at avoiding mistakes ever Big Cat’s stroke of genius in plucking Carlos Carvalhal out of obscurity… but they are gonna be too far on the back foot in this one and it will eventually bite them in the tuchus. United to win 2-0.

• BRIGHTON vs LESTER: Kelly Nacho looked damn good for Nigeria over the break but unfortunately broke his hand and is in doubt for the Foxes (not that he’s been playing a ton for them anyway because reasons). This game will be won on the wings where both clubs tend to start their attack, but I’m giving the edge to Lester thanks to the speed of Albrighton and Mahrez. Lester to win 2-1.

• NEWCASTLE vs HUDDERSFIELD: Don’t let Toon get hot! Oops, too late. (One win in a row constitutes a streak for them this season.) The only sure bet in this game is that it can’t be any worse than the first time they played last fall when Huddersfield walked away with a 1-0 win in a game that both teams looked like they slept through. More entertainment doesn’t necessarily mean more scoring though. Newcastle to win 1-0.

• WATFORD vs BOURNEMOUTH: Battle of two teams sitting on 36 points, meaning they are so close to Tony Pulis’ beloved 40-point “safety” line they can almost taste it… but not quite. Both clubs play extremely aggressive offside traps, and both end up getting burned – a lot. Sounds like the recipe for plenty of goals but not necessarily a winner. I’ll go with a 2-2 draw.

• DEAD BROM vs BURNLEY: Is this bad? This seems bad.

Basically – aside from the month of January where they inexplicably woke up and/or took advantage of other teams congested fixture lists – Dead Brom has been 100% Grade A+ poop from September right up to the present day. I tried to give them the benefit of the doubt one time recently and… fool me once shame on me. Fool me twice and—well, you aint gonna fool me again. Burnley to win 1-0.

• ARSENAL vs STOKE: Lezzzzbe honest, this game doesn’t mean dick to the Gunners who have no chance of snagging a top four spot and are instead taking a page out of United’s 2016-17 playbook and putting all their eggs in the Europa League basket. Could they end up getting passed by Burnley? Never say never, especially after a desperate Stoke holds them to a 1-1 draw this weekend.

[caption id="attachment_964261" align="alignnone" width="350"]“Iz a wary important trophy – some even say iz zee mose important”[/caption]

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MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER

Storylines worth paying attention to:

1) Hi Toronto, I’m the 2018 season. Have we met? (Note: in their defense, the schedule means they can coast through at least July before really needing to think about getting serious.)

2) Same could be said about the Fire, but thankfully they will finally have their good luck charm back at the game this weekend (hint: me), so time to pick up that first DUB!

3) Da fuq got into Sporting Kansas City? Defense was supposed to be their M.O. and there was major questions coming into the season about where the goals would come from… and yet here they are in first out west despite having one of the worst defensive records in the league. Not exactly a recipe for sustainability, but definitely a recipe for entertainment.

4) Game of the weekend:

Do we like “El Trafico”? Do we hate “El Trafico”? I’m not sure but I guess we’re going with it for now. Should be a helluva game on Saturday (2pm CT on FOX) and Zlatan allegedly IS going to be available…

And the rest of the schedule:

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REST OF WORLD

Germany – DER KLASSIKER TIME!

[caption id="attachment_964265" align="alignnone" width="299"]11:30am CT on FOX[/caption]

As if the dærby itself wasn’t sexy enough, there is plenty to play for as Bayern could clinch the title while BVBabyjesus & Co. have Frankfurt, Bayer and RB Leipzig crawling up their ass trying to snag a Champions League spot.

Italy – Juventus are two points up on Napoli and welcome Milan on Saturday (1:45pm CT on beIN Connect) in a game the 6th place visitors need if they are gonna catch up to Lazio and Inter this season.

Spain – Has any club ever quietly gone unbeaten through an entire season? I’m not even sure that’s even possible but Barrrrrrrrrrthelona’s are well on their way after 29 games (23 wins; 6 draws). In fact, in what is probably their toughest remaining test, the Catalans – who may or may not be without Messi this weekend – head to the Jozay-slayers of Sevilla on Saturday (1:45pm CT on beIN).

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So there we have it. Don’t worry, I did indeed miss each and every one of you as much as you missed me, and I’ve saved the best news for last…. NEXT WEEK! IT’S BACK!