Patriots Draft Preview: Quarterbacks
Author’s note: I’ve been doing these draft previews in some way, shape or form almost for as long as I’ve been at Barstool. Yes, they are more or less Patriots-centric because I’ve never claimed to be able to understand the inner workings of other teams. But as the Belichick Whisperer, who has looked into the man’s eyes and his soul, knows his priorities and his “types” to fit his system, I’ve been able to accurately predict such picks as Darius Butler, Brandon Spikes, Nate Solder, Dont’a Hightower and a certain recently deceased former guest of the Massachusetts Corrections Department.
I’ll try to do as many of these as I can, but will focus, as always, on the areas where I think the Pats are most likely to target. (Knowing full well they’ll probably take two randoms from Rutgers and three full time special teamers, but that is my cross to bear.) And this year it feels like quarterback is as good a place as any to start.
Current Roster: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
Positional Overview: It’s stating the obvious that, unable to hang onto the original Jimmy Garoppolo short of paying him $27 million a year to be the backup or $27 million a year to replace the league MVP after only six meaningful quarters in his NFL career, they need JG2: Rise of the Next Franchise. The nearly impossible task is identifying what kind of QB swipes right for. In his 18 drafts he has selected Brady, Rohan Davey, Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Cassel, Kevin O’Connell, Zac Robinson, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy G and Jacoby Brissett. Late round, early round, big school, small school, tall QBs, shortish QBs. Successes and busts. There is virtually no consistent thread those guys have in common other than the personnel department felt they had a high football IQ and could talk a good game on the white board. And figuring that out from outside the meeting room is an insurmountable task. But that is how I keep the lights on at Stately Thornton Manor:
The Consensus Early 1st Round Guys:
Sam Darnold, USC. 6-3, 220 lb, 4.85 40-time
While not everyone agrees, most mocks have Darnold as the first quarterback coming off the board. He’s very good in all the measurables, but is by no means a “can’t miss” guy. The thing you hear most about him is “inconsistent.” In his throwing motion, in his footwork, his accuracy. And it showed in 2017 when he started out as a Heisman favorite and then fell out of the race like he was Jeb Bush. The absolute best bio fact about Darnold is that his grandfather was Dick Hammer, a USC hoops player and Olympic athlete who later made a living introducing a generation of America’s youth to the wonders of lung cancer playing The Marlboro Man. You’d think a direct descent of Dick Hammer would just inherently understand the importance of ball security, but that got away from Darnold as he had 13 INTs and 11 fumbles on the season. He was disciplined by coaches and his teammates were sort of lukewarm, but most scouts are satisfied with his ability to lead a huddle. He’s got the prototype body of a high-level pocket passer. He can make plays out of structure. He can drive the ball upfield. He’ll need coaching to get there in the way Matthew Stafford did. And he’s shown his worth in the whitest, hottest of spotlights.
Compare to the leading brand: Matt Ryan
Josh Rosen, UCLA. 6-4, 226, 4.92
The Rosen One has plenty work with to make him the most NFL-ready QB in this group. At UCLA he ran a largely pro-style offense. He’s used to taking snaps under center and dropping with his back to the defense. He’s got the best footwork/base/release to get the ball out fast and on target. He’s the best back-shoulder thrower on the board. As a freshman he was the first to start Week 1 in Bruins’ history. As a junior he had 460+ yards and 3+ TDs in each of his first four games. In between he had three different offensive coordinators. The most recent one was Jedd Fisch, who’s got 12 years of NFL experience. The downside is rock-ribbed old timey Football Guys question his passion for the beloved game. An even bigger downside is he had two concussions and might be one more nasty one away from walking away with a hundred or so million in injury settlements and leave a team swimming for the bottom to get their franchise QB yet again. Based on the mocks, we should be surprised if he makes it past the Jets. Based on the Jets, we should be surprised if he lasts the year.
Compare to the leading brand: Andrew Luck
Josh Allen, Wyoming. 6-5, 233, 4.75
The upside: He’s got the arm strength to launch a ball like an ICBM. The downside: He’s got the telemetry of a North Korean ICBM. He can throw a ball 50 yards without having his feet set underneath him, but he completed 56.2 percent of all his throws. Which makes him the most polarizing of all these prospects. There’s no doubt he’s got the size to fight off tackles and keep plays alive like a Ben Roethlisberger or a Cam Newton and has played a ton of games in Polar Vortexes and handled the elements. What he lacks is refinement to his game. The ability to read a play and anticipate receivers coming open instead of reacting and throwing. He can deliver throws no one else here can. But was also 0-5 against Power 5 opponents with 3 TDs and 10 INTs. There’s enough raw material to build a good quarterback. The question is if the finished product will be worth the labor costs involved.
Compare to the leading brand: Jake Locker
The Next Tier:
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma. 6-1, 215, 4.84
The most accurate passer of the class of 2018. He finished his career at 68.5 percent and last year set the single season mark previously set by him the year before. And he was over 50 percent on throws of 21+ yards. For that, he won the Heisman and basically so many other awards he qualifies for a Tracy Jordan EGOT necklace. And he’s a three year starter. So you’d think he’d be fighting amongst all the Joshes in the single digits. But pro teams are very much shook by the Nutsack Grab That Spawned a Million YouTubes against Kansas. So much so that it was revealed at least one anonymous team had him followed in Indy. He’s also much more about the strength of his arm rather than sound mechanics, and those pro QB coaches love watching solid mechanics more than bachelorette parties do. He’ll drop some for all these reasons. But still could go in the 1st.
Compares to the leading brand: I keep reading Doug Flutie, which makes no sense. So I’ll go back to Jeff Garcia.
The One No One Knows What To Do With:
Lamar Jackson, Louisville. 6-3, 200, 4.42
There was plenty of talk early in the year about converting the Youngest Heisman Winner (2016) Ever, but I think that’s pretty much died down by now. He wants to be a quarterback, and so, I think, does God because in His infinite wisdom, He made Jackson a quarterback. Just one who can run and throw well enough to be the only FBS player to ever top 1,500 and 3,500 yards, and he did it twice. And only he, Colin Kaepernick and Tim Tebow cracked 50 and 50 in touchdowns in a career. As a passer, he’s got a freakishly effortless quick-flip throwing motion that still gets distance on the ball. Think that kid in your dorm who can snap a bottle cap through your eye from across the room. But running is his greatest skillset with 10 rushing touchdowns of over 40 yards. Bobby Petrino worked in plenty of NFL concepts for him. But teams interested in running a straight, traditional pro-style offense will probably have to change their schemes to get the most out of him, at least while he adapts to less of a “run first” attack.
Compares to the leading brand: Michael Vick
The Ceiling is the Roof (The Floor is the Sub-basement):
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State. 6-5, 235, 4.90
My favorite thing I’ve heard about Rudolph comes from Greg Cosell who said he could be Matt Ryan or he could be Bryce Petty. Not too big a spread there to risk your career on. He was a 4-year starter, but played exclusively out of the shotgun or pistol. He’s never been under center. Never had to read through progressions because all OK State’s formations are about creating single coverage and attacking the pre-snap mismatches. Maybe he’ll catch on quick. He’s got plenty to work with in terms of his build, arm and speed. But you’ll have to put him together like IKEA furniture. And for what it’s worth, his teammates liked him but he’s considered a bit of a Beta.
Compare to the leading brand: Christian Ponder
Small School Guy:
Mike White, Western Kentucky. 6-4, 225, 5.09
White transferred from South Florida and took over in Jeff Brohm’s spread from Brandon Doughty, who ended up being drafted by Miami. In high school he was considered an MLB pitching prospect. And to show for it, he has the velocity, the tight spiral and, unfortunately, the elongated windup that made him take 46 sacks last year. His 5+ 40-time also didn’t do him any favors. He’s been guilty of forcing balls into his favorite, well-covered targets, but part of that is he’s got skills throwing to the entire route tree. He get some buzz among the stopwatch crowd at the Senior Bowl with his accuracy on deep throws. Enough to get him some interest from teams who aren’t setting their quarterback Amazon search parameters “Priced high to low,” but are looking for a Day 2 project.
Compares to the leading brand: Trevor Siemian
Some Weirdo Who’s Obsessed with Tom Brady:
Luke Falk, Washington State. 6-3, 225, 4.87
Stories went around at the Combine that Falk has a bizarre fetish for All Things Tom Brady, which personally I think is appalling. He goes around campus wearing a TB12 hat. Has taken a crack at the food and workouts in the TB12 Method book. His teammates busted his balls mercilessly after the Super Bowl. What kind of a grown man does those things? That aside, he played in Mike Leach’s Air Raid where he learned timing throws and touch passes. He doesn’t have the arm yet to anticipate receivers’ breaks and have the ball waiting for them in tight spots like Jon Gruden’s beloved Turkey Hole. But Leach himself said he’s dedicated “more than most people will ever realize.” While benching him twice in his senior year. He’s definitely a system QB with about an 87-MPH fastball, but he could be developed.
Compare to the leading brand: I don’t know. But not Tom Brady.
Who the Patriots Will Draft:
Logan Woodside, Toledo. 6-2, 201, 4.79
His career has been up and down. As a freshman, he was thrown in when the starter was injured. In his second year he lost the job and was redshirted. He earned the starting job as a junior and completed 69 percent with 45 TDs to just 9 INTs. In Toledo’s quick-throw offense he developed fast decision making and the accuracy to throw guys open. I hate to go right to the obvious comparison, but he’s about 20 lbs away from being the same size as Garoppolo. Both didn’t exactly play for football factories. Both are quick and can roll the pocket and extend plays. He needs work, but that’s all we’re looking for. Here, he’ll have the time to add the bulk and develop. So that at the end of his rookie contract they can trade him for a 2nd rounder and sign Brady to a 4-year extension to chase Ring No. 10. At least that’s how I’m drawing it up. And since Nick Caserio personally oversaw Woodside at Toledo’s Pro Day, he’s my choice.
Compares to the other leading brand: Who else?
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