Barstool Contender Series: Can Xavier Finally Make a Final Four? Plus Top-25 Rankings
This was a series I started last season and something I want to continue this year. The goal of this is to highlight and discuss teams that are flying a little bit under the radar or just needs to be talked about that can contend on a national stage. Last year we covered the likes of Cincinnati, South Carolina, Dayton, Maryland and Notre Dame. We’ll take a look at different teams across the country as the season goes on, typically before or right after a marquee game and breakdown their strengths, weaknesses and what to expect moving forward. I plan on doing these every Monday as we head into March. We move on this year with Xavier. You can read the rest of the Contender Series as it goes on here:
Xavier has turned itself into one of the more consistent programs across the country under Chris Mack, however there’s still one major thing lacking from the resume. The school has yet to make a Final Four – which isn’t the best way to judge a program’s success, but one that fans will constantly be on the lookout for. That can change this year. Xavier entered this season with expectations for yet another year and arguably the highest expectations they’ve had under Mack. That’s what happens when you return a preseason All-American in Trevon Bluiett a year after making a trip to the Elite Eight. Xavier finds itself right now at No. 12 on KenPom and a top-10 team in pretty much every poll. So just how good is this team and more importantly what makes this team a contender?
First and foremost this team will go as far as Trevon Bluiett will take them. He’s a special player who just scored his 2,000th career point during the 19-point win over Marquette earlier in the week. Bluiett is currently averaging 19 points and about 6 rebounds per game while shooting a career-high 43% from the 3-point line. Part of the reason for the improved shooting is due to his shot release being quicker. He’s able to stay open longer by having that quick release to go with his range. He grades out in the 89th percentile nationally at 1.019 points per possession this year. Where Bluiett really thrives though is spot up shooting. He’s scoring 1.34 points per possession out of 100 possessions so far this year in that set.
They use him in different starting points too which makes it tough to truly read where the play is going. Mack does an excellent job of switching up sets. He’ll run the flex to get Bluiett open cutting straight up the post. He uses him on the wing and runs him off of screens to curl on opposite side. He’ll start in a box and run him through the elevator screen. But, what Bluiett does the best is rotate on drives. He hardly stands still when one of Xavier’s guards are driving, making his defender make the decision of either digging or staying. Here you can see a little bit about what I’m talking about when. He starts the possession on the low block, uses the down screen and then as Goodin drives he relocates the moment his defender turns his head.
One of the bigger things for Xavier has been the emergence of Kerem Kanter as a third scoring option. He’s your prototypical European big as he’s extremely polished, isn’t necessarily going to bang in the post, but beat you with a variety of moves. In the last 8 games he’s averaging 12.2 points per game and that includes two games with a goose egg. They like to use him in ball screens and they’ll also iso him in the post. He tends to prefer to catch the ball just off the block where he can use a drop step, a baby hook and a spin to get his shot off. Part of the thing with Kanter is how Mack has the ability to interchange his lineup due to the three bigs. With O’Mara, Kanter and Jones all on the roster, they all tend to bring something slightly different which allows Mack to play matchups and find his mismatch. Kanter is more of the scoring big that can step out. O’Mara is your traditional back to the basket and try and score in the post. Jones is the more physical, grab rebounds type player. This is typically where Kanter prefers to catch the ball (either up here or on the baseline at about the same distance)
What’s going to be key going forward is getting consistent shooting and scoring from either Quentin Goodin or Naji Marshall. Both are excellent at putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim, but neither are known for being shooters. Goodin is shooting just 21% from three while Marshall is at 35%. Neither has attempted more than 30s threes this season. Teams are starting to dare the two of them to beat them from the outside. Against Marquette we saw Goodin hit a couple threes to get into a rhythm. We’ve seen Marshall have games knocking down corner threes. That has to happen in the NCAA Tournament. When one of them are hitting outside shots it opens up the lane for the other to drive, one of the three bigs to post and you can’t help off of Bluiett or Macura as much.
Another huge advantage that Xavier has when it comes to the NCAA Tournament is the fact they are an excellent free throw shooting team. That’s always something that rears its head come one-game elimination time and Xavier should be set up for success due to that. How many times do we see a team lose a lead in the second half due to a) pressing and b) missed free throws? Xavier is 22nd in the country in free throw percentage and more importantly it’s the ones with the ball in their hands late that are good free throw shooters. Goodin/Bluiett/Macura are all better than 81% from the free throw line. Hell, Sean O’Mara is an 85% free throw shooter. Right there lets you have four guys on the floor that you are comfortable getting the ball to late in the game and going to the free throw line to seal the win. I also higlighted some of their BLOB sets earlier in the year and they are simply excellent at BLOBs and ATO’s. They rank as the best team in the country at scoring after time outs. A large part of that is Chris Mack and his ability to design a play to find the mismatch. It’s what he did last year against Arizona.
So what are the weaknesses with this team? As I mentioned earlier the three guards in Marshall/Scruggs/Goodin aren’t great shooters. One of them has to make a push here late in the year to be more consistent from outside. The defense is also rather inconsistent. Xavier will run a 1-3-1 zone and they also run the pack line defense when it comes to the half court man to man. Because of that they are susceptible to give up a lot of looks from behind the arc. They rank 275th in 3PA/FGA although they defend the 3-point line well. They also don’t force turnovers, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but you need to get a couple of free points if you’re going to win six games. On the flip side their turnovers tend to be live ball turnovers. While they don’t commit a bunch of overall turnovers (75th in the country) they tend to be steals.
Overall, this is one of the 10 best teams in the country. We’ve seen them get hot in March before and we’ve seen what Bluiett can do when he’s rolling. If they can continue to get their defense to an above 50 ranking on KenPom while getting consistent play from the backcourt, this is a team that shouldn’t surprise anyone if they make a Final Four. That said if Bluiett is off during an early round game, it also shouldn’t shock people if they don’t make it past the Round of 32.
Top-25
1. Villanova
2. Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. Duke
6. Xavier
7. Michigan State
8. Cincinnati
9. Arizona
10. West Virginia
11. Oklahoma
12. Texas Tech
13. Auburn
14. Gonzaga
15. Ohio State
16. Tennessee
17. St. Mary’s
18. Kentucky
19. Clemson
20. Nevada
21. Florida
22. Rhode Island
23. Wichita State
24. Seton Hall
25. USC