Just How Bad is the Rest of the AFC East?
I’ve never been a guy who makes the hacky “tomato can” argument when talking about the AFC East. First of all, it discredits the fact that the Patriots have won the division 14 out of the last 16 years and lost on tiebreakers the two seasons they didn’t. More to the point though, it hasn’t been true.
At least until now. Because it’s very possible the AFCE could be the worst division, 2-through-4 since the NFL went to the 8 divisions of 4 teams alignment in 2002.
There have been atrocious divisions top-to-bottom in that time. Most recently the 2014 NFC South when Carolina won the division going 7-9-1 and Seattle winning the NFC West in 2010 with a record of 7-9. But at least those divisions were close. There was some level of competition, if you want to call it that. A Balance of Mediocrity. The rest of Carolina’s 2014 division opponents combined for 15 wins. And Seattle’s 2-4 teams won 18.
If you’re looking for real examples of a team with no competition in their division, you have to look somewhere other than the AFC East. I count four times in the last ten years that any division’s 2-through-4 teams won as little as 13 games:
–2016 NFC West (Winner: Seattle, 10-5-1)
–2013 AFC South (Winner Indy, 11-5)
–2012 AFC West (Winner, Denver, 13-3)
–2008 NFC West (Winner, Arizona, 9-7)
To find that level of awfulness in the AFC East you have to go back to 2007, when the Pats won all 16 and the rest of the division won 7, 4 and 1 game, respectively. And since then, there’s been only one season where the Bills, Dolphins or Jets didn’t finish at least 8-8. So yes, the Pats have brought the Fire and Fury the likes of which has never been seen before. But it’s because they’ve been great, not because everyone else has been terrible.
But to repeat myself, that is until now. Because the 2017 AFC East is shaping up to be the least competitive division with the worst 2-4 teams in the 16 seasons of this format. Let’s look at the “competition”:
Buffalo Bills. GM Brandon Beane went on PFT Live this morning to say he’s “very annoyed” at talk that he’s tanking the season. Which is the second item in the pamphlet “So You Want to Tank Your Season” you pick up at the Failing Franchise Guidance Counselor’s office. It’s right after “Don’t Sign Anybody” and just before “Trade Your Most Talented Players for Draft Picks.” Beane let Stephon Gilmore and Mike Gillislee walk to his chief division tormentor, putting his resources instead into replaceable parts like fullback Patrick DiMarco and safety Micah Hyde. Then he flipped his best wideout Sammy Watkins and best remaining corner Ronald Darby. He did get back Jordan Matthews (injured already), but mostly loaded up on picks and now has two in each of the first three rounds in 2018. If it looks like a tank, sounds like a tank, and stinks like a tank …
Miami Dolphins. Miami is coming off a rare season of respectability. They had a rookie coach in Adam Gase but he led them to double digit wins and a wild card spot. But I defy you to name one thing the do particularly well. I’ll speculate to Jarvis Landry having a nice breakout season. But they were 24th in yards gained, 17th in points scored, were middle of the pack in points allowed and gave up the 4th most yards in the league. I won’t take too deep a dive into what the Dolphins have done this off-season, because whatever they accomplished last year they did with Ryan Tannehill, the Average NFL Quarterback Made Incarnate. And through no fault of their own, replaced him with Jay Cutler. The Jay Cutler who was practicing his non-regional dialect for his broadcasting job just over a week ago. And who was in danger at his introductory press conference because they say you’re not supposed to wake up sleepwalker.
New York Jets. The Jets got the same pamphlet the Bills have a year ago. They just ignore the step about pretending to be annoyed about the tanking allegations. They aren’t just swimming for the bottom; they’re the Jonah in Master in Commander, putting a cannon ball down their pants, jumping in and blowing bubbles all the way down to make it quick and painless. There’s has been called the worst roster in modern NFL history, and it’s hard to argue. When they let David Harris walk, the longest tenured Jet became their long snapper. Quincy Enunwa was arguably their best offensive player, and he’s out for the season. Their best player overall is Sheldon Richardson, who talks more than Sheldon Cooper, mostly about what a dick he thinks Brandon Marshall is. And last year’s top quarterback draftee Christian Hackenberg is so bad his throws are a physical threat to anyone in the area who is not one his open receivers. And the best hope for the 2017 Jets is to reacquire IK Enempali and hope he breaks Hackenberg’s jaw. 0-16 is not out of the question.
Since these three teams play each other twice each, by definition they’ll win six games between them. But the floor for wins in a division’s 2-through-4 is 12. And based on how things look right now, that is very much in play. You can usually count on the Pats to clinch the division by Thanksgiving. The beginning of December, at the latest. In 2017, they’ve done it in mid-August.