NBA Draft Scouting Report: Lauri Markkanen Strengths, Weaknesses and Comparison
As we are just a handful of days away from the NBA Draft I’ll be breaking down the scouting reports for various players across the country who are expected to be taken in the top-10 of the 2017 NBA Draft. If there is someone specific you want on here, please let me know @barstoolreags. All videos are courtesy of Synergy and Krossover and the stats will come from Synergy, Krossover and KenPom.
Lauri Markkanen – Arizona
7’0”, 220 lbs, 20 years old
Projected: No. 7 (DraftExpress) No. 11 (NBADraft.net)
Comparison: Ryan Anderson
Background: Lauri Markkanen made a name for himself playing and absolutely dominating some FIBA events before coming to play for Arizona. Heading into the Draft, he’s being called the best shooter of this class (hard to argue, and more on this later) while also being called the best shooting big man in college. He put up over 15 a game during his one year at Arizona while shooting over 42% from the 3-point line. He was an extremely efficient player at Arizona (mostly due to his shooting) as he ranked 15th nationally in ORtg per KenPom at 130.2.
Strengths: This is going to be shocking, but this portion of the blog will spend a lot of time talking about Lauri’s shooting ability. It’s absolutely unique and something that will translate to the NBA. Below is a graph of his shooting off the catch courtesy of Krossover.
The biggest takeaway I have from this is his ability to shoot both on the left and the right. He doesn’t need to be in one spot in order to be successful as he shot 51% from the left wing and 65% from the right corner. That second number is the other thing that caught my eye. In today’s age of analytics and the importance of the corner 3 (the most valuable shot due to distance + value) that 65% is something that will make front office guys drool.
The NBA wants space and pace, something Markkanen excels in. He can play as the stretch four, as long as there’s a defensive-minded and rim-protector playing at the ‘traditional’ five spot. With that happening, teams can begin to use him in high pick-and-pops. We saw some sets where Arizona would bring up both Lauri and another big to set a screen on each side – see below here.
From there you can see Lauri’s footwork and shooting stroke. First with his footwork, he’s consistent in the 1-2 toe tap. That’s key to keep him in a rhythm in catch and shoot sets. He’s also quick with the move to get his feet set, which shows how fluid he is with his movement both on and off the ball. He’s also consistent with his footwork in keeping it under him. He’s rarely off balance in shooting and always has that up and down movement.
Again, sticking with his shooting here, you can see two shots in the video above against Arizona State. Take a look at how quick his release is. While he doesn’t necessary have a high release point, he doesn’t need to due to his size. However, the quickness of the release is something that makes his shooting that much tougher to guard. The other part with that goes to his footwork. He’s always ready to shoot, which means there’s not much time from catch to release, something that is extremely important in the NBA.
Obviously there is more to Lauri’s game than shooting. While he’s not recognized as a banger in the post, he was a decent rebounder as he grabbed over seven a game. On top of that he had an offensive rebounding percentage of 10%, which ranked 241st nationally. He also showed the ability to finish at the rim, especially off of lobs. Through it all he is still a 7’0″ that has a ton of agility, which is a different look in the post.
Weaknesses: My biggest concern for Lauri at the next level starts with his defense. While he’s decent at close outs and is agile enough to stick with a guy laterally, he’s nowhere near an average rim protector and can get buried in the post due to his weight/lack of strength. His block percentage was just 1.8%, which is almost impossible for someone with his size to be at, but he hasn’t developed that part of his game yet. Part of this is due to his lack of awareness and positioning while guarding the post. He gets removed easily and is often late in terms of getting to the spot. With his lack of positioning it allows him to get sealed by weaker opponents (think Sean O’Mara from Xavier late in the Sweet 16 game) and often gives up easy buckets.
Draft Stock/Projection: There’s obviously a large need for a guy with the size of Lauri to go with his shooting ability. He’s going to step in and be in the rotation, no matter where he goes. Like I mentioned earlier, pairing him with a defensive-minded center (somewhere like Sacramento where he can play alongside a Cauley-Stein) would fit him best. He can get up and down the court no problem, so pace of play isn’t necessarily much of a concern for him nor does style of play. I think you see him go more in that No. 10 range than No. 6, due to some defensive concerns. He does have a similar style of play to Ryan Anderson as of right now, but that’s not to say his rim protection won’t improve with NBA training. He’s not going to be the go-to guy on a team, but you can absolutely be a winning team with him as your second or third option on the offensive side of the ball.