Many people are saying Trump is going to pull us out of the Paris Climate Agreement today. You will see all sorts of opinion pieces and doomsday scenarios printed across all sorts of outlets. You will see that if we continue on the path we’re on, in 200 years New Orleans will be in a permanent Katrina state, London will be a waterpark, and penguins will be riding tigers across the Sahara (which would be pretty electric). You will read that if we pull out, we will join just 2 other countries that aren’t in on the Paris Climate Agreement (Syria and Nicaragua, lol).
That last part is definitely true — nearly every country on earth entered a pact to cooperate with the singular goal of keeping the global temperature from rising 1.5+ degrees celsius above pre-industrial levels. 1.5 degrees doesn’t sound like much but if we get above that, all sorts of bad shit starts to happen, like the above aforementioned.
Now, what’s the reason for leaving? Well, the pact would force “the U.S. to reduce fossil fuel emissions by nearly 30 percent by 2025.” You don’t have to have a PhD in economic theory to understand that this requirement affects production, output, costs, jobs, etc that trickle through our economy. Trump promised to pull the U.S. out of the agreement during the campaign, something that appeals to many Rust Belt folks (and will appeal again to them in the 2020 election).
A U.S. departure is not a lock to benefit the U.S. economy. In fact, many believe it could have the opposite effect, causing uncertainty in fossil fuel and renewable energy investment, and driving other countries (like Chyna) to retaliate with moves like sanctions or import/export taxes.
And Trump’s boy will hashtag #done Donnie if he pulls out.
Look, I’m not an economist. I’m not a climate expert. I’m not an atmospheric scientist. I did learn about the carbon cycle in some bullshit college elective and I’ve seen those commercials with the polar bears struggling on the melting ice. But my instincts tell me we’re already pretty fucked on this issue right? Already over the cliff? If it’s real that we’re causing global warming then there’s no chance we reverse our course enough that, if we’re already on a path to great whites swimming through New York City come the 22nd century, these agreements and pacts and bullshit will stop that, right? No chance. We can’t go 5 minutes without going to war with each other but we’re all going to team up and successfully defend the fucking air and water? Yeah okay. In my opinion this does not come down to science or economics it just comes down to what path we’re currently, actually, truthfully on, because I don’t see a chance in hell the entire world partners up to reverse its course on literally anything. We’re all selfish and hate each other and have been that way since the beginning of recorded history.
Having said that, I hope we stay in because I like to golf and golf is played outside and if the outside gets all fucked up like in The Day After Tomorrow I will be unlikely to golf/survive and it sounds like this agreements is at least TRYING to save the outside.