Phillies Weekend Preview Versus The Nationals
The 1-6 road trip is done. Finished. It’s a brand new day. I don’t want to talk about a team that blew 6 leads. I’m not here to discuss consistent bullpen troubles that have allowed an MLB-worst 21 home runs. I don’t want to address the costly errors from the defense. And I definitely don’t want to chat about the 53 runners left on base and the 14-65 they went with runners in scoring position. What I want to do is watch a Phillies team beat the piss out of the National this weekend. The Nats are becoming a bit too cozy on that high horse of theirs. Shame though that their fans continually forget they have a baseball team in that pretentious town of theirs. 6th in attendance for a team putting up some historic offensive numbers is a joke. Even us lowly, scummy Phillies fans bring pack more savages to the stadium per game. So here’s what I think about the Nats this weekend and the past 7 games…
Friday, May 5, 2017 7:05 PM
Forecast – 68, Rain, 22% Precipitation, 13mph winds
Nick Pivetta 0-1 3.60 ERA 1 GS 5 IP 5 K’s
I have re-watched his start against the Dodgers a few times now and every time I like what I saw more and more. Mainly, I am in love with his fastball. 93-96 with great lateral movement on it that he really knows how to locate. I liked that slider of his too. 3 of his 5 k’s came on this pitch that he used around 20% of the time. It bites hard, but at 82, it’s a little slow for my liking. It will tend to hang more and when he is pairing that with his below average changeup, it’s can be very bad news. That combo is what the Dodgers feasted on in his first few innings and it is something the Nationals will eat you alive with. Expect a lot of fastballs tonight out of Nick and as long as he can toss a decent changeup tonight, I expect a solid start in these wet conditions. Especially if Bryce doesn’t play.
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Stephen Strasburg 2-1 3.09 ERA 5 GS 35 IP 31 K’s
We have seen Strasburg enough to know who he is at this point. He is about as solid as they come, especially versus the Phils. I think it’s pretty safe to say he dominates the good guys. Over 19 starts he has an 8-2 record with and a 2.47 ERA. He also loves Citizens Bank, with a career 1.64 ERA over 7 starts. Whatever injury concerns were had about this guy, throw them out the window for now. This Phillies lineup is cold, but Strasburg has had his biggest struggles this season with the 1 and 2 hitters. Luckily, we have a pretty decent 1-2 punch in Hernandez and Altherr so if we want to have any chance vs. this Strasburg guy, it will be up to them.
Saturday, May 6, 2017 7:05 PM
Forecast – 58, Chance of Rain, 24% Precipitation, 11mph winds
Vince Velasquez 2-2 5.47 ERA 5 GS 26.1 IP 26 K’s
After a rough start, the last 3 Velasquez outings have been very solid. It also looks like he may have found some confidence in his off-speed pitches too. His last start against the Cubs where he allowed just 2 hits over 5 IP was his best start of the season. He fell behind to a lot of batters and saw his pitch count climb near 100 by the end of the 5th inning again, but was able to bring himself back simply by just using his fastball.
Vinny’s fastball is electric. It is consistently one of the best in the game when he is locating it. Against the fastball this season, batters have an OPS of just .658. However, It’s his so-called off-speed pitches where the OPS climbs to .935. I’m nervous for Vinny this start. He has already faced the Nationals this year and he is following a very similar pitcher in Pivetta. If Bryce comes back, expect this lineup to be sitting off-speed and prepared to crush Vinny’s mistakes.
TBD, Could be AJ Cole who is coming off a suspension, but I’m also reading Jacob Turner
AJ Cole (MiLB) 1-1 6.63 ERA 4 GS 19 IP 14 K’s
Jacob Turner – 1-0 3.27 ERA 1 GS 11 IP 10 K’s
Cole is a long and lanky, right-handed arm. Phils have seen him a few times, with some decent luck too. Cole is pretty much a ground ball pitcher with a decent repertoire of off-speed he will use in all counts, with his put-away pitch being his slider. He has struggled so far in the minors with a .319 BAA in his 4 starts.
Turner is coming off 4 scoreless innings of relief to get the win vs. the Diamondback on May 2. Turner made his MLB debut at 20 and is playing for his 5th team in 6 seasons. The 25 yr old journeyman has posted well below average ERA, BB/9 and K/9 numbers in his career. He throws a heavy 95 mph sinker and mixes in a 12-6 curve and a below average change. He has faced the Phillies twice and has a 1.43 WHIP in 7 IP.
As a team, the Phillies have the highest Soft% rate on batted balls in the Majors. Turner is not the guy we want to face, so let’s hope it’s Cole.
Sunday, May 7, 2017 2:35 PM
Forecast – 58, Overcast, 15% Precipitation, 14mph winds
Jeremy Hellickson – 4-1 3.18 ERA 6 GS 34 IP 13 K’s
Hellickson fell back down to Earth his last start in Chicago. The 8 hits, 6 ER, 3 HR and 2 BB were all season highs. To quote Ben Davis, he hanged and they banged. He fell behind to almost every Cubs hitter and they made him pay dearly chasing him out after just 4 innings. Hellickson’s 46 FB% will always be his downside and this Nationals team knows how to hit the HR currently owning the 2nd highest HR/FB ratio in the NL. But, Helly has a feel for the Nats this year. Having faced them twice already, he has a 0.58 WHIP in 12 IP.
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Tanner Roark – 3-1 4.04 ERA 6 GS 35.2 IP 29 K’s
Roark is the most meh pitcher in baseball, but somehow he consistently get’s people out. His ERA is not really reflective of how good a year he is having. He is holding hitters to a .660 OPS with a 62% strike percentage. We have seen plenty of Roark over the past few seasons, but in his 13 games vs. the Phils, he has held them to a 1.062 WHIP. If Helly is on, expect a low scoring game from both sides in this one.
The Lineups
I really hate giving this team credit, but my lord are they good. They currently lead the MLB in Avg, Hits, Runs, RBI, OPS and probably a bunch more nerdy stats.nobody has time for right now. Hopefully, Dusty gives Bryce the weekend off and we might have a chance.
On the whole, the Phillies offense isn’t half bad checking in at 7th in the NL in Avg and OPS. They just need to figure out how to get people to cross home plate and stop leaving so many on base.